Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
Global
- The Bank for International Settlements warned that rapid AI investment could lead to overcapacity and create financial stability risks.
- Capital expenditure on AI infrastructure by the world’s top five hyperscalers is forecast to surpass the $1 trillion mark across 2025 and 2026.
- The BIS highlighted energy supply and semiconductor shortages as key bottlenecks that could amplify risks if AI investment slows sharply.
Eurozone
- Eurozone inflation slowed to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, marking its first decline since January.
- Falling energy prices and easing geopolitical tensions helped reduce inflationary pressures.
- The decline strengthened expectations that the European Central Bank will leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.
- The eurozone unemployment rate remained at a record-low 6.2% in May, highlighting continued labor-market resilience.
- Strong employment continues to support wage growth, although the ECB expects pay pressures to moderate over time.
- ECB President Christine Lagarde said the recent rate increase reflected the central bank’s economic projections rather than a precautionary move.
- Lagarde reiterated that inflation is expected to return to the ECB’s target by late 2027.
- She also said the eurozone financial system is now more resilient, allowing the ECB to tighten policy without triggering financial instability.
Germany
- German inflation slowed more than expected in June as lower energy prices reduced overall price pressures.
- The softer inflation data weakened expectations of another near-term ECB rate increase.
- Policymakers nevertheless remain cautious given the possibility of renewed geopolitical tensions.
France
- French inflation eased in June, supported by lower energy costs following improving conditions in global energy markets.
Italy
- Italian inflation also moderated more than expected in June as energy prices declined.
Switzerland
- Swiss annual inflation eased to 0.5% in June, its first decline since inflation accelerated following the Middle East conflict.
- Lower fuel and air transport prices contributed to the moderation.
- Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel said medium-term inflation pressures remain broadly unchanged.
United States
- Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks have eased, while maintaining a firm commitment to restoring price stability.
- Most Fed officials continue to favor keeping or raising interest rates, with only one policymaker projecting a rate cut this year.
- Warsh continued his push for shorter policy statements and less forward guidance, arguing markets should react primarily to incoming economic data.
- U.S. manufacturing expanded for a sixth consecutive month in June, although growth slowed slightly from May.
- New orders, production and price growth moderated, while employment improved but remained in contraction territory.
- Consumer confidence improved modestly in June as lower oil prices boosted household sentiment.
- Consumers nevertheless reported a weaker assessment of labor-market conditions.
- The University of Michigan survey also showed sentiment recovering from recent lows.
- The Chicago Business Barometer eased in June but remained comfortably in expansion territory.
- Higher oil and metals prices pushed manufacturers’ input costs to their highest level since 2022.
- The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, well below market expectations.
- The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, largely because fewer Americans participated in the labor force.
- Private-sector hiring slowed to 98,000 jobs in June, missing forecasts.
- Education and healthcare remained the strongest hiring sectors, while mining employment declined.
- Job openings remained stable at 7.6 million in May, with hiring activity little changed.
- Layoffs increased slightly while the quit rate remained stable, suggesting the labor market continues to cool gradually rather than deteriorate sharply.
- Home prices rose 0.8% year-over-year in April, although inflation continued to outpace house-price growth in real terms.
- U.S. consumers continued to face record-high beef prices as drought conditions and historically low cattle inventories constrained supply.
The Supreme Court has blocked President Donald Trump’s bid to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a move that cements the central bank’s independence.
Canada
- Canada’s manufacturing sector expanded for a third consecutive month, with the PMI rising to 53.0 in June.
- Stronger output and new orders supported the fastest pace of manufacturing hiring since late 2024.
- Factory input costs increased at their fastest pace in almost four years due to higher energy, transportation and tariff-related costs.
- Canada’s economy remained on track for positive second-quarter growth after stronger GDP readings in April and May.
- Goods-producing industries led the recovery while the services sector continued to expand.
- The Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged, citing improving economic activity and contained core inflation despite external trade headwinds.
Japan
- New Bank of Japan board member Ayano Sato said policymakers are closely monitoring the impact of yen weakness on inflation.
- Sato noted exchange-rate movements appear to be passing through to consumer prices more strongly than in previous years.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
EUR/USD:
YTD: -2.55%
Weekly: +0.52%
USD/JPY:
YTD: +2.88%
Weekly: -0.33%
GBP/USD:
YTD: -0.68%
Weekly: +1.26%
AUD/USD:
YTD: +4.17%
Weekly: +0.74%
USD/CAD:
YTD: +3.32%
Weekly: -0.12%
EUR/CHF:
YTD: -1.31%
Weekly: -0.39%
- The Japanese currency plunged to its weakest level against the greenback in four decades above 162 on Wednesday.
- The EUR/RUB is up more than 3.50%.
- The USD/RUB is up more than 2.80%.
- The GBP/USD and the NZD/USD are up more than 1.20%.
- The GBP/CAD and the NZD/CAD are up more than 1%.
- The USD/ZAR is down more than 1.50%.
Commodities
Gold:
YTD: -3.50%
Weekly: +0.83%
Brent:
YTD: +19%
Weekly: -0.22%
WTI:
YTD: +20.36%
Weekly: -0.17%
Copper:
YTD: +10.05%
Weekly: +1.31%
- Orange Juice prices are up more than 14.80%.
- US Coffee prices are up more than 10.60%.
Indices
Dax40:
YTD: +4.45%
Weekly: +3.69%
S&P 500:
YTD: +9.32%
Weekly: +1.76%
NASDAQ:
YTD: +11.15%
Weekly: +2.12%
DOW JONES:
YTD: +10.06%
Weekly: +2.49%
FTSE 100:
YTD: +7.26%
Weekly: +1.38%
BOVESPA:
YTD: +7.24%
Weekly: -0.29%
- The DAX index is up more than 3%.
- The UK100 and the Dow Jones indices are up more than 1.60%.
- The VIX index is down more than 10.80%.
- The KOSPI index is down more than 8.50%.
Shares
Tops
- Bayer: +34.88%
- Axon: +30.36%
- Palo Alto: +20.43%
- Datadog: +19.41%
- Rheinmetall: +18.53%
- Workday: +16.96%
- AppLovin: +16.66%
- Palantir: +16.09%
- CrowdStrike: +14.04%
- Salesforce: +10.73%
Flops
- Seagate Technology: -26.18%
- Western Digital: -26.06%
- CoreWeave: -22.35%
- Sandisk: -22.04%
- Nebius: -20.89%
- Qualcomm: -19.68%
- Teradyne: -18.70%
- Lumentum: -17.91%
- ARM: -16.98%
- Braskem: -16.58%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 06 July
- 07:30 AM - European - S&P Global Construction PMI (June)
- Previous: 43.7
- Forecast: 43
- 07:30 AM - French - S&P Global Construction PMI (June)
- Previous: 39.6
- Forecast: 39.4
- 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Construction PMI (June)
- Previous: 42.4
- Forecast: 42
- 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Construction PMI (June)
- Previous: 38.2
- Forecast: 45
- 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Composite PMI (June)
- Previous: 50.8
- Forecast: 51
- 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Services PMI (June)
- Previous: 50.6
- Forecast: 50.9
- 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 51.5
- Forecast: 52.2
- 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Services PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 50.7
- Forecast: 51.3
- 02:00 PM - American - ISM Services PMI (June)
- Previous: 54.5
- Forecast: 54
Tuesday 07 July
- 02:00 PM - Canadian - Ivey PMI s.a (June)
- Previous: 58.2
- Forecast: 50
Wednesday 08 July
- 02:00 AM - New Zealand - RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 2.25%
- Forecast: 2.50%
- 06:00 PM - American - FOMC Minutes
- 10:30 PM - Australian - Business NZ PMI (June)
- Previous: 49.9
- Forecast: 49
Thursday 09 July
- 01:30 AM - Chinese - Inflation Rate YoY (June)
- Previous: 1.2%
- Forecast: 1.2%
- 06:00 AM - German - Balance of Trade (May)
- Previous: €14.5B
- Forecast: €16.0B
- 02:00 PM - American - Existing Home Sales (June)
- Previous: 4.17M
- Forecast: 4.20M
Friday 10 July
- 12:30 PM - Canadian - Unemployment Rate (June)
- Previous: 6.6%
- Forecast: 7.00%
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Thursday 09 July
- Pepsico
Friday 10 July
- Delta Air Lines
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of July 03, 2026
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