Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
Global
- The International Monetary Fund lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.1%.
- Following the June ceasefire, the IMF no longer expects the Middle East conflict to trigger a global recession.
- Oil prices are nevertheless forecast to average around 32% higher this year than in 2025.
- The IMF maintained its U.S. growth forecast but lowered its eurozone outlook due to higher energy costs and weaker confidence.
- The United Nations reported global foreign direct investment increased 6% to $1.6 trillion in 2025.
- Investment in strategic sectors such as AI and advanced technologies surged to $576 billion, up sharply from 2020.
- Developing economies attracted only a small share of strategic investment as advanced economies continued to dominate capital flows.
Eurozone
- Eurozone retail sales rebounded 0.2% in May after declining in April.
- Food, beverages and non-food goods were the main drivers of stronger retail spending.
- Consumer confidence improved slightly in June.
- The unemployment rate remained at a record low of 6.2%, highlighting continued labor-market resilience.
- Despite resilient consumption, higher energy prices continue to weigh on the region's economic outlook.
Germany
- German industrial production unexpectedly increased 0.9% in May, marking a second consecutive monthly gain.
- Automotive, construction and energy-intensive industries led the improvement.
- Factory orders also rebounded, rising 1.9% after April's decline.
- A surge in transport equipment orders was the main contributor to stronger manufacturing demand.
- Economists remain cautious, warning that elevated energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty continue to cloud Germany's industrial outlook.
United States
- Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh launched five task forces to review the Fed's approach to inflation, labor markets, economic data, communications and balance-sheet management.
- The initiative forms part of a broader effort to reform how the Federal Reserve operates.
- Minutes from the June meeting showed Fed officials remain prepared to raise interest rates if inflation stays elevated.
- Policymakers unanimously voted to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.
- Several officials cited AI investment and resilient business spending as factors supporting persistent inflation.
- John Williams said inflation remains the biggest threat to the Fed's objectives and warned policy may need to tighten further if price pressures persist.
- Williams added that the labor market remains stable and expects oil prices to moderate over time.
- The U.S. services sector continued to expand in June, although new orders slowed.
- Employment in the services sector returned to growth for the first time in four months.
- Businesses reported easing price pressures as the ISM prices index declined.
- Existing home sales fell 2.4% in June, missing market expectations.
- Higher mortgage rates and inflation continued to weigh on housing demand.
- Median existing-home prices nevertheless reached a new record for June, rising 1.8% year-over-year.
- Economists lowered their housing-market outlook following the recent rise in inflation and borrowing costs.
- Initial jobless claims declined to 215,000, remaining consistent with a resilient labor market.
- Continuing unemployment claims increased slightly to 1.81 million.
Canada
- A Bank of Canada survey showed inflation expectations rose during the second quarter as households anticipated higher energy costs.
- More recent survey responses suggested inflation expectations began easing following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
- Policymakers noted the survey largely predates the recent decline in oil prices.
- ADP announced it will launch a Canadian wage tracker in September to provide additional insight into labor-market trends.
- The new indicator will be based on payroll data covering roughly one million Canadian workers.
China
- China's producer prices accelerated further in June, reflecting continued cost pressures in the industrial sector.
- Consumer inflation slowed to 1.0%, highlighting ongoing weakness in domestic demand.
- The divergence between producer and consumer prices suggests manufacturers continue to face stronger pricing pressures than households.
Malaysia
- Bank Negara Malaysia left its policy rate unchanged at 2.75%.
- Policymakers said current monetary settings remain appropriate to support price stability and sustainable growth.
- The central bank maintained its 2026 growth forecast of 4%-5%, while acknowledging risks from prolonged geopolitical tensions.
New Zealand
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%.
- The increase marked the first rate hike of the current tightening cycle.
- Policymakers indicated further interest-rate increases are likely, although future decisions will remain data dependent.
Bond Markets
- U.S., German and U.K. 10-year government bond yields climbed to four-week highs after renewed tensions in the Middle East triggered a global bond selloff.
- Higher oil prices renewed inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that major central banks could maintain restrictive monetary policies for longer.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
EUR/USD:
YTD: -2.61%
Weekly: -0.03%
USD/JPY:
YTD: +3.17%
Weekly: +0.21%
GBP/USD:
YTD: -0.24%
Weekly: +0.63%
AUD/USD:
YTD: +4.27%
Weekly: +0.26%
USD/CAD:
YTD: +3.31%
Weekly: -0.17%
EUR/CHF:
YTD: -1.07%
Weekly: +0.28%
- The USD/JPY touched again its highest level since 1986.
- The NZD/USD is up more than 1.20%.
- The NZD/JPY and the NZD/CHF are up more than 1.40%.
- The NOK/JPY and the GBP/PLN are up more than 1.7%.
- The NOK/CHF is down more than 1.60%.
- The EUR/NOK, the USD/NOK and the USD/RUB are up more than 1.30%.
- The EUR/NZD and the CAD/NZD are down more than 1.10%.
Commodities
Gold:
YTD: -4.84%
Weekly: -1.57%
Brent:
YTD: +25.70%
Weekly: +6.98%
WTI:
YTD: +26.06%
Weekly: +5.91%
Copper:
YTD: +10.49%
Weekly: +1.38%
- Cocoa prices are up more than 26%.
- Oats prices are up more than 21%.
- US Coffee prices are up more than 13%.
- Orange juice prices are down more than 15%.
Indices
Dax40:
YTD: +2.53%
Weekly: -2.51%
S&P 500:
YTD: +9.68%
Weekly: +0.65%
NASDAQ:
YTD: +11.61%
Weekly: +0.61%
DOW JONES:
YTD: +9.11%
Weekly: +0.18%
FTSE 100:
YTD: +5.45%
Weekly: -1.69%
BOVESPA:
YTD: +7.21%
Weekly: -0.03%
- The IDX 30 index is up more than 2%.
- The FTSE MIB index is up more than 1.50%.
- The VIX index and the KOSPI index are down more than 7%.
Shares
Tops
- Rio Tinto: +17.56%
- CSN Mineracao: +15.55%
- Ultrapar Participacoes: +14.45%
Flops
- Rocket Lab: -18.26%
- Teradyne: -15.13%
- MRBF Global Foods: -15.10%
- KLA: -13.71%
- Intel: -12.70%
- Applied Materials: -10.36%
Important Events to Follow
Tuesday 14 July
- 12:30 AM - Australian - Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (July)
- Previous: -2.9%
- Forecast: 2.5%
- 01:30 AM - Australian - NAB Business Confidence (June)
- Previous: -14
- Forecast: -12
- 03:00 AM - Chinese - Balance of Trade (June)
- Previous: $105.43B
- Forecast: $ 110B
- 03:00 AM - Chinese - Exports YoY (June)
- Previous: 19.4%
- 03:00 AM - Chinese - Imports YoY (June)
- Previous: 27.4%
- 12:30 PM - American - Core Inflation Rate YoY (June)
- Previous: 2.9%
- Forecast: 2.9%
- 12:30 PM - American - Inflation Rate YoY (June)
- Previous: 4.2%
- Forecast: 3.9%
- 02:00 PM - American - Fed Chair Warsh Testimony
Wednesday 15 July
- 02:00 AM - Chinese - GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q2)
- Previous: 5%
- Forecast: 4.4%
- 02:00 AM - Chinese - Industrial Production YoY (June)
- Previous: 4.5%
- Forecast: 4.7%
- 02:00 AM - Chinese - Retail Sales YoY (June)
- Previous: -0.6%
- Forecast: -0.1%
- 12:30 PM - American - PPI MoM (June)
- Previous: 1.1%
- Forecast: 0.2%
- 01:45 PM - Canadian - BoC Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 2.25%
- Forecast: 2.25%
- 01:45 PM - Canadian - BoC Monetary Policy Report
Thursday 16 July
- 06:00 AM - UK - GDP MoM (May)
- Previous: -0.1%
- Forecast: 0.1%
- 12:30 PM - American - Retail Sales MoM (June)
- Previous: 0.9%
- Forecast: 0.3%
Friday 17 July
- 12:30 PM - American - Building Permits Prel (June)
- Previous: 1.41M
- Forecast: 1.42M
- 12:30 PM - American - Housing Starts (June)
- Previous: 1.177M
- Forecast: 1.33M
- 02:00 PM - American - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (July)
- Previous: 49.5
- Forecast: 50.4
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Tuesday 14 July
- GOLDMAN SACHS
- JPMORGAN CHASE
- Citigroup
- Wells Fargo
- Bank of America
- Ericsson
Wednesday 15 July
- Blackrock
- JOHNSON&JOHNSON
- Morgan Stanley
- ASML HOLD
- Bank of New York Mellon
- United Airlines
Thursday 16 July
- Abbott Lab
- TSM
- NETFLIX
- US Bancorp
- Alcoa
- GENERAL ELECTRIC
- UNITEDHEALTH
- Publicis Groupe
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of July 10, 2026
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.