Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
Global
- The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S.-Iran ceasefire helped ease energy and commodity prices.
- The International Monetary Fund said lower energy prices are encouraging, but warned it will take time for oil markets and Gulf trade flows to fully normalize.
- Geopolitical risks have eased, although policymakers continue to monitor the inflationary effects of earlier energy supply disruptions.
Eurozone
- Eurozone consumer confidence climbed to -17.7 in June, marking its second straight month of improvement after hitting -19.0 in May.
- Lower energy prices and easing geopolitical tensions helped support household sentiment.
- The ECB's recent interest-rate increase continued to shape market expectations as policymakers remain focused on inflation risks.
- ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said inflation is likely to remain elevated despite the recent decline in energy prices.
Germany
- German consumer confidence improved ahead of July as easing geopolitical tensions lifted sentiment.
- Household spending intentions remained weak, while precautionary savings stayed elevated.
- German business confidence also edged higher as companies became more optimistic about the regional economic outlook.
United Kingdom
- Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor said interest rates could be reduced if lasting peace in the Middle East removes inflation risks.
- Taylor supported keeping rates at 3.75% for now given continued geopolitical uncertainty.
- U.K. unemployment eased to 4.9% in the three months through April.
- Wage growth excluding bonuses remained unchanged at 3.4%, while inflation held steady at 2.8%.
United States
- U.S. private-sector growth picked up steam in June, driving the S&P Global Composite PMI up to 52.2.
- Manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace since mid-2021 as new orders strengthened sharply.
- Services activity continued to grow but at a slower pace as consumers remained sensitive to higher prices.
- Businesses reported weaker hiring in the services sector due to soft demand.
- The Fed’s preferred inflation measure rose 4.1% year-over-year, remaining well above the 2% target.
- Nine of nineteen Federal Reserve officials now expect at least one interest-rate increase before year-end.
- Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh announced new internal task forces, including a review of the central bank’s inflation framework.
- Initial jobless claims fell to 215,000, indicating continued labor-market resilience.
- Continuing unemployment claims increased modestly to 1.82 million, suggesting hiring remains softer but layoffs remain limited.
- John Williams said current monetary policy remains appropriate but described inflation as still unacceptably high.
- Williams cited the AI investment boom and geopolitical tensions among the key upside risks to inflation.
Canada
- Reaching heights not seen since late 2023, Canada's annual headline inflation quickened to 3.2% in May.
- Higher gasoline prices were the main driver of headline inflation.
- Core inflation remained stable near 2%, suggesting broader price pressures remain relatively contained.
- Food prices continued to rise, while shelter inflation moderated.
- The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%.
- Governor Tiff Macklem said weaker domestic growth and easing geopolitical tensions reduced the need for immediate policy tightening.
- Macklem also warned that growing global financial imbalances and expanding non-bank lending could increase financial stability risks.
- The IMF echoed concerns that rising imbalances across major economies could generate broader global spillover effects.
Japan
- BOJ June minutes highlighted rising policy anxieties regarding persistent inflation. The central bank recently lifted its policy rate to a 30+ year high of 1.0%.
- Several board members argued inflation driven by higher energy costs may prove more durable than initially expected.
- One policymaker opposed the latest rate increase, citing downside risks to economic growth.
- BOJ board member Naoki Tamura called for steady interest-rate increases and suggested policy could be tightened more quickly if inflation accelerates.
Australia
- Australia's unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in May after stronger-than-expected job creation.
- The labor market remains resilient despite slower economic growth.
- Underlying inflation stayed above the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range.
- A 4.75% increase in the minimum wage from July is expected to add further upward pressure on inflation.
- Markets continue to see the possibility of additional rate hikes if inflation remains persistent.
Thailand
- The Bank of Thailand left its policy rate unchanged at 1.0%.
- Policymakers concluded the economic impact of the Middle East conflict had become less severe than previously expected.
- The central bank upgraded its 2026 economic growth forecast to 2.3%.
- Officials nevertheless warned that external risks continue to cloud the outlook.
Mexico
- The Bank of Mexico unanimously left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5%.
- Policymakers signaled an extended pause in monetary policy.
- Inflation reached 3.55% in mid-June, while core inflation remained above 4%.
- The central bank continues to view inflation risks as tilted to the upside.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
- The NZD/USD is down more than 1.85%.
- The AUD/CAD is down more than 1.20%.
- The USD/RUB is upmore than 2.55%.
- The USD/THB is up more than 2%.
- The GBP/NZD is up more than 1.95%.
Commodities
- US Cocoa prices are up more than 23.44%.
- Silver prices are down more than 12.75%.
- Orange Juice prices are down more than 11%.
- WTI and Brent prices are down more than 7%.
Indices
- The VIX index is up more than 12%.
- The SMI index is up more than 3.30%.
- The KOSPI index is down more than 8%.
Shares
Tops
- Bio-Techne: +27.73%
- Bayer: +22.24%
- Azzas 2154: +18.63%
- Segro: +17.96%
- Sandisk: +14.20%
- Eurofins Scientific: 9.70%
Flops
- Strategy: - 27.47%
- Rheinmetall: -19.54%
- Braskem S.A.: -18.61%
- Palentir Techologies: -18,01%
- Oracle: -16.69%
- Coinbase: -15.04%
- Endeavour: -14.74%
- Stellantis: -10.42%
Important Events to Follow
Tuesday 30 June
- 01:30 AM - Australian - RBA Meeting Minutes
- 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS Manufacturing PMI (June)
- Previous: 50
- Forecast: 50.3
- 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (June)
- Previous: 50.1
- Forecast: 50.5
- 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS General PMI (June)
- Previous: 50.5
- Forecast: 50.7
- 08:45 AM - French - Inflation Rate YoY Prel (June)
- Previous: 2.4%
- Forecast: 2.4%
- 12:00 PM - German - Inflation Rate YoY Prel (June)
- Previous: 2.6%
- Forecast: 2.9%
- 02:00 PM - American - JOLTs Job Openings (May)
- Previous: 7.618M
- Forecast:
- 11:50 PM - Australian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 50.7
- Forecast:
- 11:00 PM - Japanese - Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)
- Previous: 17
- Forecast: 13
Wednesday 01 July
- 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 54.5
- Forecast:
- 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (June)
- Previous: 51.8
- Forecast: 51.4
- 05:00 AM - Japanese - Consumer Confidence (June)
- Previous: 33.6
- Forecast: 32
- 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
- Previous: 51.2
- Forecast: 51.5
- 07:30 AM - Swiss - procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (June)
- Previous: 57.3
- Forecast: 48.8
- 07:50 AM - French - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 49.7
- Forecast:
- 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 50.1
- Forecast:
- 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 51.6
- Forecast:
- 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 53.9
- Forecast:
- 09:00 AM - European - Inflation Rate YoY Flash (June)
- Previous: 3.2%
- Forecast: 3.2%
- 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 55.1
- Forecast:
- 02:00 PM - American - ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)
- Previous: 54.0
- Forecast: 52.5
Thursday 02 July
- 01:30 AM - Australian - Balance of Trade (May)
- Previous: A$1.791B
- Forecast: A$1.5B
- 12:30 PM - American - Non Farm Payrolls (June)
- Previous: 172K
- Forecast: 70K
- 12:30 PM - American - Unemployment Rate (June)
- Previous: 4.3%
- Forecast: 4.50%
- 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
- Previous: 52.9
- Forecast: 50.1
- 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 48.7
- Forecast:
- 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Services PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 48.7
- Forecast:
Friday 03 July
- 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 51.10
- Forecast: 50.8
- 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Services PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 50.0
- Forecast: 50.3
- 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Services PMI (June)
- Previous: 54.4
- Forecast: 55
- 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Composite PMI (June)
- Previous: 54.0
- Forecast: 53.3
- 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Services PMI (June)
- Previous: 50.1
- Forecast: 49.7
- 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Composite PMI (June)
- Previous: 50.2
- Forecast: 50.1
- 07:50 AM - French - S&P Global Composite PMI (June)
- Previous: 44.9
- Forecast:
- 07:50 AM - French - S&P Global Services PMI (June)
- Previous: 44.3
- Forecast:
- 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 48.8
- Forecast:
- 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Services PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 48.1
- Forecast:
- 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 48.5
- Forecast:
- 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Services PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 47.7
- Forecast:
- 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 49.7
- Forecast:
- 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Services PMI Final (June)
- Previous: 49.3
- Forecast:
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Tuesday 30 June
- Constellation Brands
- NIKE
Wednesday 01 July
- General Mills
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of June 26, 2026
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