Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
Global
● The International Monetary Fund warned that renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities have reduced the global economy’s ability to absorb another energy shock.
● The initial impact on energy markets has been contained by higher production from other oil exporters and the release of strategic reserves.
● The IMF cautioned that global growth could fall below its current 3.0% forecast for 2026 if the Middle East conflict escalates further.
Eurozone
● Eurozone industrial production declined 0.2% in May, ending a three-month period of resilient activity.
● The result missed expectations for a modest increase.
● Weaker output of durable consumer goods weighed on production.
● Declines in France, Italy and Ireland more than offset stronger performance elsewhere in the bloc.
United Kingdom
● Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran highlights ongoing geopolitical risks.
● Bailey said the impact of higher energy prices on U.K. inflation has remained limited so far.
● U.K. inflation held at 2.8% in May, remaining above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
China
● China’s economy grew 4.3% year-over-year in the second quarter, marking its weakest expansion since late 2022.
● Strong exports linked to AI demand continued to support growth.
● Weak domestic consumption and a prolonged property downturn remained major drags on the economy.
● Property investment fell 18% in the first half of the year compared with the same period in 2025.
● Sluggish domestic demand continued to pressure corporate profits and employment, pushing more workers toward temporary and gig-economy jobs.
South Korea
● The Bank of Korea raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%.
● Policymakers signaled additional rate increases are likely as inflation and economic growth remain stronger than expected.
● The move was widely anticipated by financial markets.
Canada
● The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for a sixth consecutive meeting.
● Governor Tiff Macklem said second-quarter growth is expected to strengthen.
● Macklem warned that prolonged high energy prices could gradually spread inflation beyond the energy sector.
● Manufacturing shipments increased 1.3% in May to a record high, led by transportation equipment and chemicals.
● Wholesale trade was broadly unchanged after three consecutive months of growth.
● A KPMG Canada survey found that more than half of manufacturers have delayed or reduced investment plans because of trade uncertainty.
United States
● U.S. producer prices fell 0.3% in June as lower energy costs reduced wholesale inflation.
● Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation back under control.
● Warsh continued to avoid providing guidance on future interest-rate decisions and stressed that monetary policy will remain independent from political influence.
● The share of unemployed Americans out of work for more than six months rose to 27.3%, close to its highest level since 2021.
● Long-term unemployment has increasingly affected white-collar and prime-age workers.
● Analysts said subdued hiring continues to make it more difficult for unemployed workers to return to the labor market.
● Pending home sales fell 5.4% in June, significantly below expectations.
● Higher mortgage rates and record home prices continued to weigh on housing demand.
● Pending home sales declined across every U.S. region, with the Midwest posting the sharpest drop.
● Initial jobless claims declined to 208,000, remaining consistent with a resilient labor market.
● Continuing unemployment claims also edged lower to 1.81 million.
New Zealand
● The Reserve Bank of New Zealand warned that businesses are passing higher costs on to consumers more quickly than in previous years.
● Policymakers are increasingly concerned that inflation could remain elevated even if input costs begin to ease.
● Following last week’s rate increase, economists expect further policy tightening in the coming months.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The EUR/RUB is up more than 3%.
● The USD/RUB is up more than 2.9%.
● The NZD/CHF is up more than 1.60%.
● The NZD/USD is up more than 1.40%.
● The JPY/NZD is down more than 1.40%.
Commodities
● Oats and London Gas Oil prices are up more than 13%.
● Brent and Crude Oil prices are up more than 11.50%.
● Cocoa prices are down more than 10%.
● Orange juice prices are down more than 8.5%.
● Silver prices are down more than 7.5%.
Indices
● The IDX 30 index is up more than 4.5%.
● The Bovespa index is up more than 1.8%.
● The KOSPI index is down more than 8.5%.
● The Japan 225 index is down more than 7%.
Shares
Tops
● PayPal: +29.31%
● CSN Mineracao: +17.20%
● Vodafone Group Public: +19.18%
● Cintas: +15.74%
● Meta Platforms: +13.79%
● Intuit: +13.11%
● Thomson Reuters: +13.05%
● Stellantis: +11.86%
● Palo Alto Networks: +11.20%
● ICG: +11.07%
● QIAGEN: +10.19%
Flops
● Alnylan Pharmaceuticals: -25.19%
● Nebius: -25.05%
● Marvell Technology: -23.51%
● Astera Labs: -23.48%
● International Business Machines: -23.36%
● Sandisk: -23.13%
● Rocket Lab: -21.95%
● Coreweave: -21.88%
● Western Digital: -21.43%
● Seagate Technology: -19.17%
● St. James Place: -11.94%
● Infineon Technologies: -11.32%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 20 July
● 12:30 PM - Canadian - Inflation Rate YoY (June)
○ Previous: 3.2%
○ Forecast: 3%
Tuesday 21 July
● 06:00 AM - UK - Unemployment Rate (May)
○ Previous: 4.9%
○ Forecast: 4.9%
● 09:00 AM - German - ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)
○ Previous: 10.5
○ Forecast: 7
● 11:50 PM - Japanese - Balance of Trade (June)
○ Previous: ¥-378.7B
○ Forecast: ¥ -700B
Wednesday 22 July
● 06:00 AM - UK - Inflation Rate YoY (June)
○ Previous: 2.8%
○ Forecast: 2.4%
Thursday 23 July
● 12:15 PM - European - Deposit Facility Rate
○ Previous: 2.25%
○ Forecast: 2.25%
● 12:15 PM - European - ECB Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 2.40%
○ Forecast: 2.4%
● 12:45 PM - European - ECB Press Conference
● 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 51.5
○ Forecast: 51.1
● 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 50.5
○ Forecast: 50.2
● 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 50.4
○ Forecast: 50.1
● 11:30 PM - Japanese - Inflation Rate YoY (June)
○ Previous: 1.5%
○ Forecast: 1.7%
Friday 24 July
● 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 54.8
○ Forecast: 54.3
● 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 52.2
○ Forecast: 53
● 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 52.8
○ Forecast: 52.8
● 06:00 AM - German - GfK Consumer Confidence (August)
○ Previous: -29.2
○ Forecast: -30
● 06:00 AM - UK - Retail Sales MoM (June)
○ Previous: 1.2%
○ Forecast: 0.3%
● 07:15 AM - French - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 47.2
○ Forecast: 48.4
● 07:15 AM - French - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 51.2
○ Forecast: 50.9
● 07:15 AM - French - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 46.8
○ Forecast: 47.9
● 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 50.3
○ Forecast: 49.5
● 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 49.5
○ Forecast: 50
● 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 48.6
○ Forecast: 49.1
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 50.0
○ Forecast: 50.2
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 51.4
○ Forecast: 51
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 49.4
○ Forecast: 50
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 52.5
○ Forecast: 52
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 48.8
○ Forecast: 49.3
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 49.3
○ Forecast: 49.7
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 51.9
○ Forecast: 51.5
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 53.9
○ Forecast: 53
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)
○ Previous: 51.2
○ Forecast: 51
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Tuesday 21 July
● UCB
● 3M
● Halliburton
● Hasbro
● General Motors
● Novartis
● Julius Baer
Wednesday 22 July
● Alphabet
● TESLA MOTORS
● AT&T
● IBM
● Philip Morris
● Banco Santander
● Iberdrola
● Moncler
● Valeo
Thursday 23 July
● Eurofins Scientific
● Total
● Raytheon Technology
● Newmont Goldcorp
● Lockheed Martin
● American Airlines
● INTEL
● Union Pacific
● STMicro
● SAP
● Nokia Corp
● Dassault Systemes
● T-Mobile US
● BNP Paribas
● Repsol
● Unicredit
● Roche
● RELX
● Carrefour
● Nestle
Friday 24 July
● Volkswagen
● AMERICAN EXPRESS
● VERIZON
● Banco de Sabadell
● Poste Italiane
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of July 17, 2026
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