Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
Global
● Fitch lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.4%, citing the economic impact of higher oil prices and ongoing disruptions in the Middle East.
● The agency raised its average Brent crude forecast for 2026 to $87 per barrel from $70 due to concerns over prolonged shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
● The OECD warned that elevated energy costs could significantly slow global activity next year.
● OECD projections suggest global growth could reach 2.8% if energy supply conditions improve, but a prolonged conflict could drag growth down to just 2.1%.
● China was one of the few economies to receive an upgraded outlook, with growth expected at 4.6% in 2026, supported by strong AI-related investment.
United States
● Several Federal Reserve officials signaled growing concern that inflation may remain too high, increasing the possibility of additional rate hikes later this year.
● Interest-rate futures now imply a much higher probability of policy tightening compared with one month ago.
● Businesses reported rising energy-related costs and continued uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions.
● Economic conditions remain uneven, with higher-income households continuing to spend while lower-income consumers face increasing financial pressure.
● The ISM services index rose to 54.5 in May, indicating stronger-than-expected expansion in the services sector.
● Service-sector companies reported the fastest price increases in nearly three years, largely driven by fuel and transportation costs.
● Manufacturing activity expanded for a fifth consecutive month, supported by solid production and new orders.
● Construction spending exceeded expectations in April, with gains in both residential and public-sector projects.
● Initial jobless claims increased modestly, suggesting some softening in labor-market conditions.
● ADP reported private-sector job creation of 122,000 positions in May, pointing to continued labor-market resilience.
● Technology companies continued to reduce headcount, with AI-related restructuring cited as a leading reason for layoffs.
● Consumer surveys showed growing financial anxiety as households face higher food, fuel and borrowing costs.
Eurozone
● Inflation accelerated to 3.2% in May, its highest level since 2023, mainly due to rising energy costs.
● Markets increasingly expect the ECB to raise interest rates at its June meeting.
● The ECB upgraded its inflation forecasts and policymakers continue to emphasize inflation risks.
● Retail sales contracted more than expected in April, reflecting weaker consumer spending.
● Consumer confidence remains close to historic lows and economists increasingly see recession risks for the second quarter.
● Manufacturing companies reported the strongest increase in input costs since 2022.
● Services activity weakened sharply, highlighting the growing impact of higher energy prices on the economy.
● Factory job losses accelerated during May.
● Household inflation expectations remained elevated, while expectations for wage growth declined.
● Despite economic weakness, the unemployment rate held steady at 6.3%.
United Kingdom
● Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene suggested that the case for higher interest rates has strengthened.
● Concerns are growing that inflation expectations could become entrenched if policymakers delay action.
● Some BOE officials remain cautious given the fragile state of economic growth.
Japan
● Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that additional rate increases remain possible if inflation pressures continue to build.
● Policymakers highlighted rising wages, elevated oil prices and negative real interest rates as factors supporting tighter policy.
● Markets are pricing a high probability of a BOJ rate hike in the near term.
● The yen remains weak despite significant government intervention in the currency market.
● Japanese authorities reiterated their readiness to act again if currency volatility intensifies.
Canada
● Canada’s services sector returned to expansion territory in May after several months of contraction.
● GDP declined slightly during the first quarter, marking a second consecutive quarterly contraction.
● Weak growth has increased concerns about a potential recession, although economists remain divided on the outlook.
● Business sentiment remains pressured by geopolitical uncertainty and external trade challenges.
Australia
● Economic growth slowed to 0.3% during the first quarter, reflecting tighter monetary conditions and higher fuel costs.
● Annual growth remained at 2.5%.
● The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a third consecutive interest-rate increase in May.
● Business investment remained strong, supported by substantial spending on machinery, equipment and data-center infrastructure.
India
● The Reserve Bank of India left interest rates unchanged for a third consecutive meeting.
● Policymakers maintained a neutral stance while monitoring the economic consequences of Middle East tensions.
● The Indian rupee has weakened sharply this year as higher oil prices increase pressure on the country's import bill.
Switzerland
● Inflation remained stable at 0.6% in May.
● Markets expect the Swiss National Bank to keep rates unchanged through the remainder of the year.
● Policymakers continue to view medium-term inflation trends as broadly stable and within target.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The USD/RUB and EUR/RUB are up more than 3.5%.
● The GBP/NZD is up more than 1%.
● The NZD/USD and the NZD/HKD are down more than 1%.
Commodities
Gold:
● WTI prices are up more than 6%.
● Orange Juice prices are up more than 5.8%.
● Brent prices are up more than 3%.
● US Coffee and Oats prices are down more than 6.5%.
● Corn and Palladium prices are down more than 5.5%.
● Silver prices are down more than 5%.
● Soybeans and Weat prices are down more than 4.9%.
Indices
● The Japan 225 index is up more than 2%.
● The Dow index is up more than 1.7%.
● The VIX index is down more than 8%.
● The Bovespa index is down more than 3.5%.
Shares
Tops
● Marvell Technology: +59.21%
● Hewlett Packard: +43.29%
● Dell Technologies: +33.13%
● Axon Enterprise: +30.39%
● ARM: +26.92%
● NetApp: +26.07%
● Super Micro Computer: +23.42%
● Companhia de Saneamento de Minas: +18.58%
● STMicroelectronics: +14.25%
● Rio Tinto: +14.06%
● Infineon Technologies: +10.51%
Flops
● Magazine Luiza: -20.77%
● Braskem: -20.35%
● Cboe Global Markets: -18.02%
● Cosan: -17.51%
● Azzas: -15.79%
● Strategy: -13.16%
● Prudential: -11.66%
Important Events to Follow
Tuesday 09 June
● 12:30 AM - Australian - Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (June)
○ Previous: 3.5%
○ Forecast: -1.2%
● 01:30 AM - Australian - NAB Business Confidence (May)
○ Previous: -24
○ Forecast: -22
● 03:00 AM - Chinese - Balance of Trade (May)
○ Previous: $84.82B
○ Forecast: $89.0B
● 03:00 AM - Chinese - Exports YoY (May)
○ Previous: 14.1%
● 03:00 AM - Chinese - Imports YoY (May)
○ Previous: 25.3%
● 06:00 AM - German - Balance of Trade (May)
○ Previous: €14.3B
○ Forecast: €13.6B
● 02:00 PM - American - Existing Home Sales (May)
○ Previous: 4.02M
○ Forecast: 3.9M
Wednesday 10 June
● 01:30 AM - Chinese - Inflation Rate YoY (May)
○ Previous: 1.2%
○ Forecast: 1.4%
● 12:30 PM - American - Core Inflation Rate YoY (May)
○ Previous: 2.8%
○ Forecast: 2.8%
● 12:30 PM - American - Inflation Rate YoY (May)
○ Previous: 3.8%
○ Forecast: 3.9%
● 01:45 PM - Canadian - BoC Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 2.25%
○ Forecast: 2.25%
Thursday 11 June
● 12:15 PM - European - Deposit Facility Rate
○ Previous: 2%
○ Forecast: 2.25%
● 12:15 PM - European - ECB Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 2.15%
○ Forecast: 2.4%
● 12:30 PM - American - PPI MoM (May)
○ Previous: 1.4%
○ Forecast: 0.3%
● 12:45 PM - European - ECB Press Conference
Friday 12 June
● 06:00 AM - UK - GDP MoM (April)
○ Previous: 0.3%
○ Forecast: 0.1%
● 02:00 PM - American - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (June)
○ Previous: 44.8
○ Forecast: 46
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Wednesday 10 June
● Oracle
Thursday 11 June
● ADOBE
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of June 05, 2026
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