Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
Global
● The World Bank lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.5% from 2.9%, citing the economic impact of the Middle East conflict.
● Commodity prices are expected to rise 22% this year, with oil forecast to average $94 per barrel in 2026 instead of falling as previously expected.
● World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill warned developing economies risk facing a "lost decade" without a significant improvement in growth conditions.
Eurozone
● The European Central Bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 2.25% from 2.0%, marking its first rate increase in nearly three years.
● The ECB became the first major central bank to tighten monetary policy in response to energy-driven inflation linked to the Middle East conflict.
● Policymakers described the move as an insurance measure against persistent inflation risks and a potential wage-price spiral.
● Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.2% in May, while core inflation increased to 2.5%.
● The ECB remains focused on preventing higher energy costs from feeding into broader wage demands.
● Economic growth prospects weakened further, with Europe seen as one of the regions most exposed to the conflict's economic consequences.
Germany
● German factory orders fell 3.8% in April, marking the first monthly decline since January.
● Business activity was hurt by weaker demand and uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict.
● Rising energy costs continue to threaten Germany’s industrial recovery despite substantial fiscal support measures.
● Economists expect Germany may contract slightly in the second quarter following a weak start to the year for the eurozone economy.
Switzerland
● Swiss voters will decide on a referendum aimed at limiting the country's permanent resident population to under 10 million by 2050.
● The proposal could lead Switzerland to terminate its free-movement agreement with the European Union if approved.
● The debate reflects growing concerns in several advanced economies over immigration and population growth.
United States
● Existing home sales posted their strongest monthly increase of 2026, rising 3.2% to an annualized pace of 4.17 million units in May.
● Lower mortgage rates earlier in the spring and improved housing inventory helped support buyer activity.
● Despite the rebound, home sales remain only modestly above last year's levels.
● Initial jobless claims increased to 229,000 during the week ending June 6, exceeding market expectations.
● Labor market indicators continued to point to resilience despite signs of moderation.
● The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index declined to 107.01 in May from 107.88 previously.
● Hiring difficulties among small businesses eased, contributing to the decline in the employment index.
● The index nevertheless remains above levels seen six months ago, suggesting labor demand remains relatively solid.
● Producer prices increased 1.1% in May, stronger than expected.
● Annual wholesale inflation accelerated to 6.5%, the highest reading since 2022.
● Energy prices surged more than 10% during the month, adding to inflationary pressures throughout the economy.
Canada
● The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%.
● Policymakers cited the challenge of balancing a slowing economy against rising inflation driven by higher energy prices.
● The central bank expects inflation to remain near 3% in the coming months, close to the upper end of its target range.
● Governor Tiff Macklem said policymakers are facing conflicting signals from weak growth and persistent price pressures.
● Canada’s economy contracted by 0.1% annualized in the first quarter, increasing concerns about a potential recession.
Japan
● Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will miss next week’s policy meeting due to his hospitalization for an infected liver cyst.
● He will maintain remote oversight of his core responsibilities as he recovers.
● The upcoming policy meeting will be led by Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino.
● Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will step in to conduct the post-meeting press conference.
Indonesia
● Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%.
● The central bank also increased its deposit and lending facility rates by 25 basis points.
● Officials said the move was aimed at supporting the rupiah and maintaining financial stability.
● Some analysts questioned the effectiveness of tighter policy given concerns about fiscal sustainability and capital outflows.
Turkey
● Turkey’s central bank left its one-week repo rate unchanged at 37.0% for a third consecutive meeting.
● Policymakers cited elevated energy prices and weak domestic demand as reasons for keeping rates steady.
● Annual inflation accelerated to 32.6% in May, reaching its highest level since October.
● Higher fuel and energy costs remained the main drivers of inflationary pressure.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The USD/NOK is up more than 2%.
● The GBP/AUD, the EUR/AUD and JPY/AUD are up more than 1%.
● The EUR/RUB and the NOK/JPY are down more than 1.5%.
● The AUD/USD is down more than 1.4%.
Commodities
● London Coffee and Oats prices are up more than 5%.
● Orange Juice prices are up more than 4%.
● Palladium prices are up more than 2.5%.
● WTI prices are down more than 5%.
● Brent and Natural Gas prices are down more than 4.5%.
● Platinum prices are down more than 3.5%.
Indices
● The VIX index is up more than 19%.
● The DAX index is down more than 2.5%.
● The Bist100 index is down more than 2%.
Shares
Tops
● FedEx Freight: +19.47%
● Casey’s General Stores: +18.08%
● KLA: +17.42%
● Applied Materials: +13.79%
● ASML: +13.08%
● Companhia de Saneamento de Minas: +11.03%
● Symrise: +9.70%
Flops
● Super Micro Computer: -29.32%
● Ciena: -19.40%
● Alma: -19.08%
● Oracle: -18.90%
● PTC: -16.94%
● Adobe: -16.81%
● Endeavour Mining: -13.94%
● Companhia Siderurgica Nacional: -13.90%
● Infineon Technologies: -11.42%
Important Events to Follow
Tuesday 16 June
● 02:00 AM - Chinese - Industrial Production YoY (May)
○ Previous: 4.1%
○ Forecast: 4.2%
● 02:00 AM - Chinese - Retail Sales YoY (May)
○ Previous: 0.2%
○ Forecast: 0%
● 03:00 AM - Japanese - BoJ Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 0.75%
○ Forecast: 1%
● 04:30 AM - Australian - RBA Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 4.35%
○ Forecast: 4.35%
● 09:00 AM - German - ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)
○ Previous: -10.2
○ Forecast: -16
● 12:30 PM - American - Building Permits Prel (May)
○ Previous: 1.423M
○ Forecast: 1.41M
● 12:30 PM - American - Housing Starts (May)
○ Previous: 1.465M
○ Forecast: 1.44M
● 11:50 PM - Japanese - Balance of Trade (May)
○ Previous: ¥301.9B
○ Forecast: ¥-200.0B
Wednesday 17 June
● 06:00 AM - UK - Inflation Rate YoY (May)
○ Previous: 2.8%
○ Forecast: 3.1%
● 12:30 PM - American - Retail Sales MoM (May)
○ Previous: 0.5%
○ Forecast: 0.5%
● 06:00 PM - American - Fed Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 3.75%
○ Forecast: 3.75%
● 06:00 PM - American - FOMC Economic Projections
● 06:30 PM - American - Fed Press Conference
Thursday 18 June
● 06:00 AM - UK - Unemployment Rate (April)
○ Previous: 5%
○ Forecast: 5.0%
● 11:00 AM - UK - BoE Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 3.75%
○ Forecast: 3.75%
● 11:30 PM - Japanese - Inflation Rate YoY (May)
○ Previous: 1.4%
○ Forecast: 1.6%
Friday 19 June
● 06:00 AM - UK - Retail Sales MoM (May)
○ Previous: -1.3%
○ Forecast: -0.2%
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 15 June
● Canopy Growth
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of June 12, 2026
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