Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
● The U.S. Senate failed for the tenth time to pass a bill to end the government shutdown, prolonging the political gridlock in Washington.
● The IMF revised its global outlook, citing trade tensions, but upgraded its U.S. growth forecast even as it cut the world growth estimate to 2.6% from 3.6% last year.
● Eurozone industrial production fell 1.2% in August after a 0.5% rise in July.
● Germany’s output dropped sharply by 5.2%, weighing heavily on regional growth and suggesting the bloc’s economy barely expanded in the third quarter.
● EU exports to the U.S. fell 26% in August to €32.9 billion after a new tariff deal. The EU’s trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed to €6.5 billion from €15.3 billion a year earlier.
● Total EU exports slipped 1.2%, and imports dropped 2.1%, showing weaker trade momentum.
● French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes this week, easing immediate political uncertainty.
● Bank of England policymaker Catherine Taylor warned the U.K. faces a growing risk of a “hard landing,” as the central bank keeps rates high for longer.
● The British economy grew just 0.1% in August after shrinking 0.1% in July, showing minimal momentum. The services sector stagnated for a second month.
● The IMF expects the U.K. to record the highest inflation rate among G7 nations this year and next.
● The unemployment rate in the U.K. edged up to 4.8% in the three months to August, while wage growth excluding bonuses eased slightly to 4.7%. Job vacancies fell by 9,000 to 717,000 through September.
● Canadian existing-home sales fell 1.7% in September after five months of gains. Prices slipped 0.1% from August and are down 3.5% year-on-year, the lowest since May 2021. New listings declined 0.8%, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio down to 50.9%.
● China’s exports rose 8.3% year-on-year in September, the strongest pace in six months. Shipments to the U.S. plunged 27%, while exports to the EU climbed 14.2% and to ASEAN countries 15.6%. Imports grew 7.4%, despite a 16% drop in goods from the U.S.
● The EU trade commissioner warned that China’s new export controls on rare-earth materials—requiring approval for goods containing over 0.1% of such content—pose a significant risk to Europe’s supply chains. Beijing said the measures are aimed at national security and stability, not trade retaliation.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The EUR/USD is up more than 1.35%.
● The GBP/USD is up more than 1.20%.
● The USD/JPY is down more than 2.10%.
● The JPY/AUD and the CHF/AUD are up more than 3.40%.
● The CHF/ZAR is up more than 3%.
Commodities
● Crude oil prices have hit their lowest level in almost five years, fueled by a supply glut that has pushed U.S. oil futures down by 19% annually.
● Coffee Futures are up more than 4.30%.
● Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice Futures are down more than 8.30%
● Sugar Futures are down more than 7.80%.
● Natural Gas Futures are down more than 11%.
● Gold and Silver prices recorded new highs.
● Palladium Futures are up more than 13%.
Indices
● South Korea's Kospi hit a new record for the third day running, as trade talks with the U.S. progress.
● The VIX index is up more than 55%.
● The Indian Nifty 50 is up more than 2.30%.
● The Turkish BIST 100 is down more than 4.35%.
● The Chinese Shenzhen Component is down more than 6%.
Shares
Tops
● Bunge: +15.24%
● J.B Hunt Transport Services: +14.95%
● Generac Holdings: +13.52%
● Newmont: +10.99%
● Fresnillo: +10.79%
Flops
● Mosaic: -15.65%
● PayPal: -14.43%
● Coinbase Global: -14.06%
● F5: -13.79%
● Hewlett Packard: -13.59%
● Strategy: -13.30%
● Targa Ressources: -13.10%
● Kenvue: -12.74%
● Robinhood Markets: -12.67%
● MBRF Global Foods Company: -12.06%
● Fastenal: -11.72%
● Brava Energia: -11.36%
● Whitbread: -11.23%
● Humana: -11.21%
● Axon: -10.17%
This Week’s News to Follow
Monday 20 October
● 02:00 AM - Chinese GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3)
○ Previous: 5.2%
○ Forecast: 4.7%
● 02:00 AM - Chinese Industrial Production YoY (September)
○ Previous: 5.2%
○ Forecast: 5%
● 02:00 AM - Chinese Retail Sales YoY (September)
○ Previous: 3.4%
○ Forecast: 2.9%
Tuesday 21 October
● 12:30 PM - Canadian Inflation Rate YoY (September)
○ Previous: 1.9%
○ Forecast: 2.2%
● 11:50 PM - Japanese Balance of Trade (September)
○ Previous: ¥-242.5B
○ Forecast: ¥-170.0B
Wednesday 22 October
● 06:00 AM - UK Inflation Rate YoY (September)
○ Previous: 3.8%
○ Forecast: 4.0%
Thursday 23 October
● 02:00 PM - American Existing Home Sales (September)
○ Previous: 4M
○ Forecast: 3.9M
● 10:00 PM - Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 51.4
○ Forecast: 51
● 10:00 PM - Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 52.4
○ Forecast: 51.8
● 11:30 PM - Japanese Inflation Rate YoY (September)
○ Previous: 2.7%
○ Forecast: 2.7%
Friday 24 October
● 06:00 AM - UK Retail Sales MoM (September)
○ Previous: 0.5%
○ Forecast: 0.3%
● 07:15 AM - French HCOB Composite PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 48.1
○ Forecast: 48.5
● 07:15 AM - French HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 48.2
○ Forecast: 48
● 07:15 AM - French HCOB Services PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 48.5
○ Forecast: 49
● 07:30 AM - German HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 49.5
○ Forecast: 49
● 07:30 AM - German HCOB Composite PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 52.0
○ Forecast: 50.5
● 07:30 AM - German HCOB Services PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 51.5
○ Forecast: 51.1
● 08:00 AM - European HCOB Composite PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 51.2
○ Forecast: 50.5
● 08:00 AM - European HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 49.8
○ Forecast: 49.1
● 08:00 AM - European HCOB Services PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 51.3
○ Forecast: 50.9
● 08:30 AM - UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 46.2
○ Forecast: 46.7
● 08:30 AM - UK S&P Global Services PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 50.8
○ Forecast: 51.1
● 12:30 AM - Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 48.5
○ Forecast: 49.5
● 12:30 AM - Japanese S&P Global Services PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 53.3
○ Forecast: 53
● 12:30 PM - American Core Inflation Rate YoY (September)
○ Previous: 3.1%
○ Forecast: 3.0%
● 12:30 PM - American Inflation Rate YoY (September)
○ Previous: 2.9%
○ Forecast: 3.0%
● 01:45 PM - American S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 53.9
○ Forecast: 54
● 01:45 PM - American S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 52.0
○ Forecast: 52.1
● 01:45 PM - American S&P Global Services PMI Flash (October)
○ Previous: 54.2
○ Forecast: 54.3
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Tuesday 21 October
● NETFLIX
● Raytheon Technology
● Lockheed Martin
● 3M
● Coca-cola
● VERIZON
● BOEING
● Mattel
● Philip Morris
● Newmont Goldcorp
Wednesday 22 October
● Alcoa
● Tesla
● AT&T
● SAP
● ANGLO AMERICAN
● IBM
● BARCLAYS PLC
Thursday 23 October
● Aon
● Hasbro
● Intel
● Union Pacific
● Western Union
● American Airlines
● WisdomTree Inc
● Dassault Systemes
● ORANGE
● LLOYDS BANKING
● Beiersdorf
● TechnipFMC
● Nokia Corp
● Ford
Friday 24 October
● Sanofi
● NATWEST
● ENI
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 17 October 2025
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