Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
● The U.S. shutdown enters its 10th day.
● Sébastien Lecornu, the former French prime minister, lasted only 27 days in office and Macron should nominate a new prime minister.
● Federal Reserve minutes showed officials were divided over further rate cuts, with some arguing a hold would have been more appropriate. The ongoing government shutdown has delayed key economic data, complicating policy decisions.
Unofficial job market data from Wall Street analysts suggest hiring is slowing as official reports remain paused due to the shutdown.
● Trade tensions intensified after China’s new rare-earth export rules prompted President Trump to consider retaliatory measures. The restrictions, which apply to goods containing 0.1% or more Chinese-sourced rare earths, add pressure to global tech and chip supply chains.
● Germany’s exports fell 0.5% in August, while imports dropped 1.3%. Sales to other EU countries were down 2.5%, while exports to non-EU destinations rose 2.2%. Shipments to the U.S. slid 2.5% to €10.9 billion, the fifth monthly drop in a row.
● German industrial production also weakened sharply, falling 4.3% in August after a 1.3% gain in July. Auto output plunged 18.5%, pushing total industrial orders near their lowest levels since 2012.
● China tightened its grip on the global rare-earth market, introducing new export restrictions that could disrupt trade talks and supply chains worldwide.
● The Reserve Bank of New Zealand made an emergency 50-basis-point rate cut following weak second-quarter growth.
● The Philippine central bank lowered its benchmark rate to 4.75% as economic momentum slowed.
● Thailand’s central bank surprised markets by keeping its policy rate unchanged at 1.50%.
● Australia’s consumer confidence slipped 1.2 points last week to 85.1, reflecting caution after the RBA signaled a slower approach to policy changes.
● IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said global growth is expected to ease only slightly to 3% this year and 3.1% next year, despite higher tariffs. The U.S. dollar’s recent decline is helping foreign borrowers, while strong equity markets continue to reflect optimism around artificial intelligence.
This Week’s Market Movers
● The USD/JPY is up more than 3.70%.
● The NZD/USD is down more than 1.20%.
● The EUR/RUB is down more than 2.79%.
● The yen is on track for its sharpest weekly drop in a year following Takaichi's win, a move that pushes the currency closer to the ¥160 to the dollar level, which Japanese authorities have signaled as a potential intervention point.
● The euro remained near a two-month low as traders anticipated the appointment of France's sixth prime minister in under two years.
Commodities
● Gold prices recorded their 8th week of gains and reached the $4,000 mark before settling down.
● Palladium Futures are up more than 13%.
● Platinum Futures are up more than 12%.
● Natural Gas Futures are down more than 9%.
● Cocoa and Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice Futures are down more than 10%.
Indices
● The Japanese Nikkei 225 is up more than 6%.
● The Turkish BIST 100 is down more than 3%.
● The Bovespa is down more than 2%.
● The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones reached another record.
Shares
Tops
● Advanced Micro Devices: + 38.07%
● Humana: +18.02%
● Albemarie: +13.53%
● ARM Holdings: +13.13%
● PayPal Holdings: +12.94%
● Stellantis: +10.57%
● Super Micro Computer: +10.55%
● Freeport-McMoRan: +10.01%
Flops
● Mondi: -18.63%
● Seagate: -15.80%
● Applovin: -15.47%
● Raizen: -15.38%
● MRV Engenharia: -15.31%
● Azzas: -15.17%
● MBRF Global Foods: -13.66%
● Western Digital: -11.99%
● D.R Horton: -11.73%
● Alexandria Real Estate: -10.43%
This Week’s News to Follow
Monday 13 October
● 03:00 AM - Chinese Balance of Trade (September)
○ Previous: $102.33B
○ Forecast: $96.0B
● 03:00 AM - Chinese Exports YoY (September)
○ Previous: 4.4%
○ Forecast: 5.2%
● 03:00 AM - Chinese Imports YoY (September)
○ Previous: 1.3%
○ Forecast: 3.5%
Tuesday 14 October
● 12:30 AM - Australian NAB Business Confidence (September)
○ Previous: 4
○ Forecast: 9
● 12:30 AM - Australian RBA Meeting Minutes
● 06:00 AM - UK Unemployment Rate (August)
○ Previous: 4.7%
○ Forecast: 4.7%
● 09:00 AM - German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)
○ Previous: 37.3
○ Forecast: 30
Wednesday 15 October
● 01:30 AM - Chinese Inflation Rate YoY (September)
○ Previous: -0.4%
○ Forecast: -0.1%
● 12:30 PM - American Core Inflation Rate YoY (September)
○ Previous: 3.1%
○ Forecast: 3.0%
● 12:30 PM - American Inflation Rate YoY (September)
○ Previous: 2.9%
○ Forecast: 3.0%
Thursday 16 October
● 06:00 AM - UK GDP MoM (August)
○ Previous: 0%
○ Forecast: 0.1%
● 12:30 PM - American PPI MoM (September)
○ Previous: -0.1%
○ Forecast: 0.3%
● 12:30 PM - American Retail Sales MoM (September)
○ Previous: 0.6%
○ Forecast: 0.4%
Friday 17 October
● 12:30 PM - American Building Permits Prel (September)
○ Previous: 1.33M
○ Forecast: 1.34M
● 12:30 PM - American Housing Starts (September)
○ Previous: 1.307M
○ Forecast: 1.32M
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 13 October
● Walgreen Boots Alliance
Tuesday 14 October
● Blackrock
● JPMORGAN CHASE
● JOHNSON&JOHNSON
● Citigroup
● GOLDMAN SACHS
● Wells Fargo
● Ericsson
Wednesday 15 October
● Bank of America
● Abbott Lab
● Morgan Stanley
● United Airlines
● ASML HOLD
Thursday 16 October
● US Bancorp
● Bank of New York Mellon
● TSM
● Sartorius
Friday 17 October
● AMERICAN EXPRESS
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 10 October 2025
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