Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
● The U.S. government shutdown began on Wednesday, with President Trump promising federal firings and a Senate vote set for Friday.
● The Supreme Court ruled that Fed Governor Lisa Cook will stay in her post until her case is heard in January, limiting Trump’s effort to remove her.
● U.S. factory activity shrank for the seventh straight month, though at a slower pace. The ISM index rose slightly to 49.1 in September from 48.7 in August, with only petroleum and coal products expanding.
● The U.S. labor market showed signs of stability in August, with hiring and layoffs little changed. Still, private companies cut 32,000 jobs in September after a 3,000 loss in August.
● The Bank of Canada cut rates, saying a reduction was justified even with ongoing risks that inflation could stay higher than expected.
● Unemployment ticked up to 6.3% in the Euro Zone in August from 6.2% in July, but remains near record lows.
● Inflation in the Euro Zone rose to 2.2% in September from 2.0% in August, with services inflation climbing to 3.2%. The ECB is expected to hold rates steady, viewing the rise as temporary.
● Swiss inflation stayed very low, with consumer prices up just 0.2% in September from a year earlier, the same as August.
● The Swiss National Bank paused cuts, leaving its key rate at zero after six straight reductions.
● The Bank of Japan signaled it is still on track to raise interest rates if the economy and prices evolve as expected. Speculation is building around the timing of the next hike, alongside Japan’s upcoming ruling party election.
● Factory activity in Japan and Taiwan weakened further in September, reflecting poor demand, while China and South Korea posted modest growth.
● The Reserve Bank of India kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.50% as it monitors tariff impacts on inflation.
● The RBA left its cash rate steady at 3.60%, noting some signs of economic stabilization but warning uncertainty remains.
● Exports in South Korea jumped 12.7% year-on-year in September to $65.95 billion, the fastest pace since July 2024. Shipments to the U.S. fell 1.4%, while exports to China inched up 0.5%.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The USD/JPY is down more than 1.40%.
● The NZD/CAD is up more than 1.20%.
● The USD/THB is up more than 1.30%.
● The USD/RUB is down more than 1.65%.
Commodities
● Gold prices are recording their seventh straight weekly gain.
● Oil prices are heading toward their largest weekly drop in three and a half months.
● Copper Futures are up more than 4.50%.
● Sugar Futures are up more than 7%.
● Cocoa prices are down more than 7% and down for the seventh straight week.
● Natural Gas Futures are up more than 15.50%.
Indices
● The Shenzhen Component is up around 3.75%.
● The DAX 40, the CAC 40 and the STOXX 50 are up more than 3.30%.
● The Turkish BIST 100 is down more than 3.10%.
● The Bovespa is down more than 1.70%.
● The S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones reached another record.
Shares
Tops
● Western Digital: +23.11%
● Bio-Techne: +22.27%
● Electronics Arts: +19.56%
● Coinbase Global: +18.37%
● Charles River Loboratories: +18.18%
● Robinhood Markets: +18.14%
● Intel: +18.00%
● Micron Technology: +16.75%
● Lam Research: +16.25%
● Applied Materials: +12.33%
● Merck & Company: +12.20%
● AstraZeneca: +12.18%
● Biogen: +12.17%
● Datadog: +12.12%
● Strategy: +11.28%
Flops
● Braskem: -22.49%
● Magazine Luiza: -15.81%
● Vamos Locacao de Caminhoes: -12.10%
● Azzas: -11.02%
● Cosan: -10.90%
● MercadoLibre: -10.42%
● Equifax: -9.22%
This Week’s News to Follow
Monday 06 October
● 11:30 PM - Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (October)
○ Previous: -3.1%
○ Forecast: 3.2%
Tuesday 07 October
● 02:00 PM - Canadian Ivey PMI s.a (September)
○ Previous: 50.1
○ Forecast: 51
Wednesday 08 October
● 12:30 PM - Australian NAB Business Confidence (September)
○ Previous: 4
○ Forecast: 9
● 07:00 PM - American FOMC Minutes
Thursday 09 October
● 06:00 AM - German Balance of Trade (August)
○ Previous: €14.7B
Friday 10 October
● 12:30 PM - Canadian Unemployment Rate (September)
○ Previous: 7.1%
○ Forecast: 7.1%
● 02:00 PM - American Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (October)
○ Previous: 55.1
○ Forecast: 54
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 06 October
● Constellation Brands
Tuesday 07 October
● McCormick & Co
Thursday 09 October
● Bank of New York Mellon
● Delta Air Lines
● Tilray
● Pepsico
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 3 October 2025
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