Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
● The Supreme Court is reviewing whether President Trump can remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns over central bank independence.
● Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policy remains “modestly restrictive” after the latest rate cut. He noted tariff hikes will push prices higher, but gradually over several quarters.
● Most Fed officials see at least two more cuts this year, likely in October and December.
● Business activity in the U.S. slowed in both manufacturing and services, with companies cutting back on hiring as demand softened.
● U.S. durable goods orders jumped 2.9% in August, breaking a two-month decline.
● Weekly jobless claims fell to 218,000 in the U.S., down from 232,000 the prior week.
● U.S. home sales weakened in August, held back by high prices. The median home price rose 2% year-on-year to $422,600, the highest ever for the month.
● President Trump announced new tariffs: 100% on pharmaceuticals made outside the U.S., 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, and 30% on upholstered furniture, starting October 1.
● The OECD warned tariffs could weigh heavily on the U.S. economy in 2026, though growth has been stronger than expected so far.
● Canadian factory sales are estimated to have dropped 1.5% in August after a 2.5% rise in July, with the sharpest declines in transportation equipment and food.
● The Bank of Mexico cut rates for the 10th consecutive time, lowering the overnight rate to 7.50% from 7.75%, its lowest level since June 2022.
● Eurozone business activity reached a 16-month high, led by German services. However, optimism among companies slipped to its weakest in four months.
● Germany’s consumer sentiment improved slightly for October, driven by income expectations, though businesses remain cautious about the economy.
● Sweden’s central bank lowered its policy rate to 1.75% and signaled this may be the last cut of the current cycle.
● The ECB warned that Europe’s reliance on Chinese rare earths is a growing risk for both inflation and growth.
● The U.K.’s composite PMI fell to its lowest in four months, pointing to slower momentum compared with the eurozone.
● The Swiss National Bank kept rates at zero after six consecutive cuts but left the door open to further easing as tariffs weigh on growth prospects.
● Australia’s inflation accelerated to 3.0% in August, its highest in a year.
● New Zealand appointed Anna Breman as its first female central bank governor, set to take office in December. The RBNZ has already cut rates by a total of 250 basis points since mid-2024, aiming to stabilize inflation and support growth.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The USD/JPY is up more than 1.20%
● The NZD/USD is down more than 2%.
● The GBP/USD is down more than 1.50%.
● The CHF/NZD and the EUR/NZD are up more than 1.10%.
● The USD/NOK is up more than 1.60%.
Commodities
● Gold prices touched a new all-time high above $3790.
● Silver prices reached their highest level in 14 years.
● Oats prices reached their lowest level since mid 2024.
● Platinum Futures are up more than 10%.
● Palladium Futures are up more than 8%.
● Natural Gas Futures are up more than 9%.
● Robusta Coffee Futures are down more than 8%.
Indices
● The S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones reached new highs.
● The Swi20 is down for the 3rd week in a row.
● The Ger40 is down for the 6th week in a row.
Shares
Tops
● Kingfisher: +19.02%
● Marvell Technology: +15.20%
● Antofagasta: +14.96%
● Teradyne: +12.81%
● Warner Bros. Discovery: +10.75%
Flops
● MRBF Global Foods: -27.55%
● CarMax: -24.06%
● Raizen: -23.88%
● Cosan: -22.12%
● Freeport-McMoran: -21.47%
● FactSet Research System: -16.15%
● Kenvue: -11.06%
This Week’s News to Follow
Tuesday 30 September
● 01:30 AM - Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (September)
○ Previous: 49.4
○ Forecast: 49.9
● 01:45 AM - Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (September)
○ Previous: 50.5
○ Forecast: 50.8
● 04:30 AM - Australian RBA Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 3.6%
○ Forecast: 3.6%
● 06:45 AM - French Inflation Rate YoY Prel (September)
○ Previous: 0.9%
○ Forecast: 1.0%
● 12:00 PM - German Inflation Rate YoY Prel (September)
○ Previous: 2.2%
○ Forecast: 2.3%
● 02:00 PM - American JOLTs Job Openings (August)
○ Previous: 7.181M
○ Forecast: 7.1M
● 11:50 PM - Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3)
○ Previous: 13
○ Forecast: 15
Wednesday 01 October
● 09:00 AM - European Inflation Rate YoY Flash (September)
○ Previous: 2%
○ Forecast: 2.2%
● 02:00 PM - American ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)
○ Previous: 48.7
○ Forecast: 49.2
Thursday 02 October
● 01:30 AM - Australian Balance of Trade (August)
○ Previous: A$7.310B
○ Forecast: A$7.1B
● 05:00 AM - Japanese Consumer Confidence (September)
○ Previous: 34.9
○ Forecast: 37.5
Friday 03 October
● 12:30 PM - American Non Farm Payrolls (September)
○ Previous: 22K
○ Forecast: 39K
● 12:30 PM - American Unemployment Rate (September)
○ Previous: 4.3%
○ Forecast: 4.3%
● 02:00 PM - American ISM Services PMI (September)
○ Previous: 52.0
○ Forecast: 52
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 29 September
● NIKE
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 26 September 2025
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