Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
United States
- Trump threatens Iran
- Cattle herd at lowest level in 75 years; ranchers hesitant to rebuild despite record beef prices and strong demand
- Ground beef prices up 17% year-on-year in January vs +2.1% for other groceries
- Administration exploring higher imports from South America to ease beef prices
- Federal debt projected to exceed 100% of GDP later this year; publicly held debt expected to surpass $56tn by 2036
- Fed minutes show little appetite for near-term rate cuts; most officials want more inflation progress before easing
- Two officials dissented in January, favoring a rate cut instead of holding steady
- Governor Miran now sees rates below 2.75% by year-end, less aggressive than his prior <2.25% view
- Fed’s Daly says policy is “in a good place” while assessing AI’s economic impact
- Fed’s Barr wants clearer evidence that goods inflation is retreating before further cuts; warns labor market (low hiring, low firing) is vulnerable to shocks
- Fed’s Goolsbee says future cuts depend on inflation progress; core inflation running around 3.6% annualized, with sticky services prices
- Leading Economic Index fell 0.2% in December, fifth straight monthly decline, pointing to continued softness into early 2026
- Industrial production rose 0.7% in January after +0.2% in December, third consecutive monthly gain
- Durable-goods orders fell 1.4% in December after +5.4% in November
- Initial jobless claims declined to 206k (week to Feb. 14) from 229k prior week
- Homebuilder confidence fell to 36 in February from 37; future sales index at 46, buyer traffic at 22
- Housing starts rose 6.2% in December; building permits up 4.3%
- Pending home sales fell 0.8% in January to 70.9, as affordability improvements have yet to lift demand
Eurozone
- ECB President Christine Lagarde has not decided whether to complete her term ending October 2027
- Reports suggested potential early departure, but spokesperson said focus remains on mandate
- Vice President’s term ends May 2026; Chief Economist’s term ends May 2027
- Senior ECB appointments decided by eurozone governments through negotiated process, with France and Germany playing key roles
United Kingdom
- CPI inflation slowed to 3.0% y/y in January from 3.4% in December
- Bank of England expects inflation to average 2.5% in 2026, falling to 2% by April
- Policy rate held at 3.75% in early February; vote split 5–4 in favor of holding
- Jobless rate rose to 5.2% (three months to December), near five-year high; wage growth also moderating
Canada
- Inflation eased to 2.3% y/y in January
- Core inflation averaged 2.45%, slowest pace since late 2024
- Market expectations leaning toward policy rates staying on hold this year, though softer core data fuels some easing bets
Philippines
- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cut its overnight reverse repo rate by 25bps to 4.25% (from 4.50%)
- Benchmark lending rate reduced to 4.75% from 5.00%
- Sixth consecutive rate cut amid slowing growth
Indonesia
- Bank Indonesia kept its 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 4.75%
- Ongoing pause aimed at supporting rupiah stability following September rate cut
New Zealand
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand held official cash rate at 2.25%
- Inflation, currently above the 1%–3% target band, expected to return within range this quarter
- Economy described as in early recovery phase, with elevated unemployment and cautious household spending
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
- The USD/SEK is up more than 1.70%.
- The USD/JPY is up more than 1.65%.
- The EUR/RUB is down more than 1.75%.
- The NZD/USD is down more than 1.30%.
- The JPY/CAD is down more than 1%.
Commodities
- Diesel prices are up more than 9.80%.
- Brent prices are up more than 6.65%.
- Oats prices are up more than 5.85%.
- Soybeans Oil prices are up more than 4%.
- Cocoa prices are down more than 16%.
- Natural gas prices are down more than 5.40%.
Indices
- The VIX index is up more than 16%.
- The Neth25 index is up more than 1.40%.
- The SWI20 and the ESP25 indices are up more than 1.60%.
- The Bovespa index is up for the 7th week in a row.
- The CAC 40 index hit a new record high above 8,443.
- The UK100 is up more than 2% and reached a new all time high above 10,715.
- The Euro50 index hit a new record high above 6,112.
- The KOSPI index is up more than 5.25%.
Shares
Tops
- Moderna: +23.89%
- Molina Healthcare: +20.52%
- Texas Pacific Land: +17.41%
- Omnicom: +16.11%
- Garmin: +15.83%
- Paycom Software: +13.03%
- Safran: +11.22%
- Akamai Technologies: +10.98%
Flops
- EPAM Systems: -21.21%
- Genuine Parts: -20.42%
- Pool: -19.77%
- Raizen: -19.48%
- Expedia: -16.55%
- Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao: -15.36%
- Essilor Lusottica: -15.58%
- Zebra Technologies: -14.27%
- Siemens Aktiengesellschaft: -11.43%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 23 February
- 09:00 AM - German - Ifo Business Climate (February)
- Previous: 87.6
- Forecast: 87
Wednesday 25 February
- 12:30 AM - Australia - CPI (January)
- Previous: 3.8%
- 07:00 AM - German - GfK Consumer Confidence (March)
- Previous: -24.1
- Forecast: -25
Friday 27 February
- 07:45 AM - French - Inflation Rate YoY Prel (February)
- Previous: 0.3%
- 01:00 PM - German - Inflation Rate YoY Prel (February)
- Previous: 2.1%
- 01:30 PM - Canadian - GDP Growth Rate Annualized (Q4)
- Previous: 2.6%
- Forecast: 0.0%
- 01:30 PM - Canadian - GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4)
- Previous: 0.6%
- Forecast: -0.1%
- 01:30 PM - American - PPI MoM (January)
- Previous: 0.5%
- Forecast: 0.3%
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 23 February
- Dominion Energy
Tuesday 24 February
- Alibaba
- AMC Holdings
- HOME DEPOT
- Solvay
- First Solar
- Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co
- Endesa
Wednesday 25 February
- Zoom
- Ageas
- Ferrovial
- HSBC HOLDINGS
- Beyond Meat
- Cellnex Telecom
- E.ON
- NVIDIA
- Salesforce
- Photronics
- Banco Comercial
- Lowe'S Cos
- TJX Companies
- EDP Renovaveis
- HeidelbergCement
- Universal Health Services
- Iberdrola
- AENA
- DIAGEO
- Fresenius SE & Co
- Telefonica
- ACS Actividades de Construccion y Servicios
Thursday 26 February
- Grifols
- Dell
- Stellantis
- COMPASS
- BAIDU
- Deutsche Telekom
- Prysmian
- Novavax
- Muenchener Rueckversicherungs
- Allianz
- Bouygues
- ENI
- Veolia Environnement
- ENGIE
- Valeo
- SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC
- LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE
- Saint-Gobain
- Teleperformance SE
- SBM OFFSHORE
- ROLLS-ROYCE
- Energias De Portugal
- Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentacion
Friday 27 February
- Semapa-Sociedade De Investim
- BASF
- Swiss Re
- BioMerieux
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of February 20, 2026
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