Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
United States
● Importers now face a new 15% global tariff effective February 21, a rapid response to the Supreme Court's rejection of prior trade policies. This will be paired with a separate 10% blanket tariff lasting for 150 days post-ruling.
● Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a March rate decision is “close to a coin flip,” pending the February jobs report, though markets largely expect a hold.
● Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that 3% PCE inflation is “not good enough,” signaling rates may not yet be restrictive.
● Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said the Fed still has “work to do” on inflation and dissented in December’s 25bp cut.
● Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic cautioned that public doubts about Fed independence are increasing.
● Fed Governor Stephen Miran said rates should be cut by around 100bp this year and expects AI to both displace and create jobs.
● Consumer confidence rose to 91.2 in February from 89, though inflation concerns persist; PCE prices increased 0.4% in December.
● Factory orders fell 0.7% in December to $617.5bn; shipments rose 0.5%, while unfilled orders increased 0.9%, the 17th rise in 18 months.
● Initial jobless claims rose to 212,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.83m.
● Home-price growth slowed to 1.3% y/y in December, the weakest in over a decade; 30-year mortgage rates fell to 5.98%, below 6% for the first time since 2022.
Germany
● Business confidence improved, with the Ifo index rising to 88.6 in February from 87.6, supported by up to $1tn in planned infrastructure and defense investment.
● The Ifo Institute signaled early signs of economic stabilization.
Eurozone
● Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to 98.3 in February amid U.S. tariff uncertainty.
● ECB President Christine Lagarde warned trade conditions remain “challenging” in a volatile policy environment.
● Bank lending to eurozone businesses slowed to 2.8% y/y in January.
United Kingdom
● Consumer confidence weakened as prices continue to outpace wage growth and unemployment rises.
● Governor Andrew Bailey said a March rate cut is a “genuinely open question,” with policymakers split and markets increasingly pricing in easing.
Canada
● Factory shipments dropped an estimated 3.3% in January, the third decline in four months; manufacturing sales fell 0.4% in 2025.
● S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in January, ending 11 months of contraction.
● Prime Minister Mark Carney is seeking to deepen trade ties with India and the Indo-Pacific region.
Mexico
● The Bank of Mexico raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.6% from 1.1%, signaling a more constructive medium-term outlook.
China
● Beijing banned exports of military-use items to 20 Japanese firms and added 20 more entities to a dual-use watchlist amid Taiwan tensions.
● The PBOC removed the 20% risk reserve requirement on FX forward trades starting March 2 to curb yuan strength.
Japan
● Tokyo core CPI rose 1.8% y/y in February, falling below the BOJ’s 2% target for the first time since October 2024, largely due to energy subsidies.
● The BOJ’s most hawkish member, Hajime Takata, said another rate hike is needed soon.
● Two academic nominees seen as dovish were proposed for BOJ roles, signaling caution on further tightening.
South Korea
● The Bank of Korea held its policy rate at 2.50% for a sixth straight meeting.
● The 2026 GDP growth forecast was raised to 2.0%, with inflation projected at 2.2%, supported by chip exports and easing price pressures.
Philippines
● The central bank delivered a sixth consecutive rate cut, lowering its benchmark by 25bp as growth weakens.
● Governor Eli Remolona said the bar for further easing is high, emphasizing structural reforms over monetary stimulus.
Thailand
● The Bank of Thailand cut its policy rate to 1.00% from 1.25% in a 4–2 vote, marking a second straight easing to support recovery.
Australia
● Consumer prices rose 3.8% y/y in January, unchanged from December, increasing expectations of further tightening by the RBA.
● Housing and food were the largest contributors to inflation.
Global
● World trade volume grew 4.4% in 2025 despite higher tariffs, supported by AI-driven investment flows.
● Advanced Asian exports surged 15.9%, while China’s exports rose 8.5%.
● Economists expect trade growth to moderate in 2026 as tariffs weigh and AI-driven momentum cools.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The AUD/USD and the EUR/JPY are up more than 1%.
● The AUD/JPY is up more than 1.60%.
● The ZAR/JPY is up more than 2.30%.
● The USD/ZAR is down more than 1.50%.
● The USD/BRL is down more than 1.40%.
Commodities
● Brent prices are up more than 5.80% in February.
● Natural gas prices are down more than 25.78% in February.
● Silver prices are down more than 22.50% in February.
● Platinum prices are down more than 10.40% in February.
● Wheat prices are up more than 15.35% in February.
● Cocoa prices are down more than 36.70% in February.
● Coffee prices are down more than 23.40% in February.
● Orange Juice prices are down more than 16.50% in February.
Indices
● The KOSPI index is up more than 9%.
● The Japan225 index is up more than 3.30%.
● The Bovespa index is up more than 2.65%.
● The Ita40 index is up more than 2.50%.
● The CAC 40 index hit a new record above 8,640.
● The UK100 reached a new all time high above 10,845.
● The Euro50 index hit a new record high above 6,200.
Shares
Tops
● Keysignt Technologies: +28.97%
● Axon Enterprise: +28.23%
● Texas Pacific Land Corporation: +19.20%
● Thomson Reuters Corporation: +16.41%
● Charles River Laboratories: +13.87%
● Corning: +13.86%
● RELX: +12.22%
● Euronext: +11.93%
● ENGIE: +11.14%
● Endeavour Mining: +10.71%
Flops
● Hilma Pharmaceuticals: -16.20%
● First Solar: -16.12%
● MercabotLibre: -13.55%
● Universal Health Services: -12.43%
● International Paper: -11.16%
● Smurfit Westrock: -10.72%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 02 March
● 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 51.5
○ Forecast: 52.8
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (February)
○ Previous: 50.3
○ Forecast: 50.5
● 08:15 AM - Spanish - HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)
○ Previous: 49.2
○ Forecast: 49.8
● 08:50 AM - French - HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 51.2
○ Forecast: 49.9
● 08:55 AM - German - HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 49.1
○ Forecast: 50.7
● 09:00 AM - European - HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 49.5
○ Forecast: 50.8
● 09:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 51.8
○ Forecast: 52.0
● 02:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)
○ Previous: 50.4
○ Forecast: 50.7
● 02:45 PM - American - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 52.4
○ Forecast: 51.2
● 03:00 PM - American - ISM Manufacturing PMI (February)
○ Previous: 52.6
○ Forecast: 52.3
Tuesday 03 March
● 10:00 AM - European - Inflation Rate YoY Flash (February)
○ Previous: 1.7%
○ Forecast: 1.7%
● 10:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 55.7
○ Forecast: 52.0
● 10:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Services PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 56.3
○ Forecast: 52.2
Wednesday 04 March
● 12:30 AM - Australian - GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4)
○ Previous: 0.4%
○ Forecast: 0.8%
● 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 53.1
○ Forecast: 53.8
● 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Services PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 53.7
○ Forecast: 53.8
● 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS Manufacturing PMI (February)
○ Previous: 49.3
○ Forecast: 49.9
● 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (February)
○ Previous: 49.4
○ Forecast: 50
● 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS General PMI (February)
○ Previous: 49.8
○ Forecast: 50.2
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Services PMI (February)
○ Previous: 52.3
○ Forecast: 51.7
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Composite PMI (February)
○ Previous: 51.6
○ Forecast: 51.4
● 05:00 AM - Japanese - Consumer Confidence (February)
○ Previous: 37.9
○ Forecast: 38.1
● 08:15 AM - Spanish - HCOB Services PMI (February)
○ Previous: 53.5
○ Forecast: 53.8
● 08:15 AM - Spanish - HCOB Composite PMI (February)
○ Previous: 52.9
○ Forecast: 53.4
● 08:50 AM - French - HCOB Composite PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 49.1
○ Forecast: 49.9
● 08:50 AM - French - HCOB Services PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 48.4
○ Forecast: 49.6
● 08:55 AM - German - HCOB Composite PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 52.1
○ Forecast: 53.1
● 08:55 AM - German - HCOB Services PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 52.4
○ Forecast: 53.4
● 09:00 AM - European - HCOB Composite PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 51.3
○ Forecast: 51.9
● 09:00 AM - European - HCOB Services PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 51.6
○ Forecast: 51.8
● 09:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 53.7
○ Forecast: 53.9
● 09:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Services PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 54.0
○ Forecast: 53.9
● 02:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Composite PMI (February)
○ Previous: 46.4
○ Forecast: 46.9
● 02:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Services PMI (February)
○ Previous: 45.8
○ Forecast: 46
● 02:45 PM - American - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 53
○ Forecast: 52.3
● 02:45 PM - American - S&P Global Services PMI Final (February)
○ Previous: 52.7
○ Forecast: 52.3
● 03:00 PM - American - ISM Services PMI (February)
○ Previous: 53.8
○ Forecast: 53
Thursday 05 March
● 12:30 AM - Australian - Balance of Trade (January)
○ Previous: A$3.373B
○ Forecast: A$4.2B
● 08:30 AM - European - HCOB Construction PMI (February)
○ Previous: 45.3
○ Forecast: 45.9
● 08:30 AM - French - HCOB Construction PMI (February)
○ Previous: 43.5
○ Forecast: 44.4
● 08:30 AM - German - HCOB Construction PMI (February)
○ Previous: 44.7
○ Forecast: 45.4
● 09:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Construction PMI (February)
○ Previous: 46.4
○ Forecast: 47
Friday 06 March
● 01:30 PM - American - Non Farm Payrolls (February)
○ Previous: 130K
○ Forecast: 70.0K
● 01:30 PM - American - Retail Sales MoM (January)
○ Previous: 0%
○ Forecast: 0.1%
● 01:30 PM - American - Unemployment Rate (February)
○ Previous: 4.3%
○ Forecast: 4.3%
● 03:00 PM - Canadian - Ivey PMI s.a (February)
○ Previous: 50.9
○ Forecast: 50.5
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 02 March
● Norwegian Cruise Line
● AAON Inc
Tuesday 03 March
● Beiersdorf
● Best Buy
● Target
Wednesday 04 March
● Bayer
● Continental
● Broadcom
● Adidas
Thursday 05 March
● JD.com
● Costco
● Alibaba
● DHL Group
● RECKITT BENCKISER
Friday 06 March
● Deutsche Lufthansa
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of February 27, 2026
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