Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
- The Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 0.25 points to 4–4.25%, the first cut in nine months, prioritizing signs of labor market weakness over inflation risks.
- An appeals court rejected Trump’s request to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook, extending the standoff over central bank independence.
- U.S. housing starts dropped 8.5% in August to 1.307 million units, after 1.429 million in July.
- Weekly jobless claims fell sharply to 231,000 from 264,000 in the United States, easing labor concerns.
- U.S. import prices rose 0.3% in August, above expectations, after a 0.2% gain in July.
- New York’s factory activity slipped into contraction for the first time since June, with orders and shipments sliding.
- Overall data suggests a cooling U.S. economy, pressured by tariffs, weaker factories, and labor market headwinds.
- The Bank of England left its base rate at 4% but slowed its bond reduction program, pointing to renewed inflationary pressures.
- Inflation stayed at 3.8% in August in the United Kingdom, just below forecasts of 3.9%.
- The U.K. jobless rate held steady at 4.7% for the three months to July, while pay growth excluding bonuses slowed to 4.8% from 5.0%.
- Rightmove reported U.K. home prices rose 0.4% in September to £370,257, the first monthly increase since May, though still 0.1% below last year’s level.
- Industrial production in July edged up 0.3% after a 0.6% decline in June in the Eurozone.
- Germany’s financial sentiment improved modestly in September.
- Eurozone exports slipped 0.4% in July compared to June. Shipments to the U.S. bounced to €44 billion after a June dip, but remained well below March’s €72 billion.
- On a yearly basis, European exports to the U.S. fell 4.4% while imports surged over 10%, squeezing the trade balance.
- Manufacturing sales rebounded in July, up 2.5% month-on-month to C$70.3 billion, continuing their recovery from tariff-related weakness.
- The Bank of Canada lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 2.5%.
- Canadian manufacturing sales rebounded in July, up 2.5% month-on-month to C$70.3 billion, continuing their recovery from tariff-related weakness.
- The Norges Bank lowered its key rate to 4%, but signaled a more cautious approach to further easing than previously expected.
- China’s economy showed renewed weakness over the summer, with trade and real estate sectors dragging growth.
- Japan’s exports fell 0.1% in August, the fourth monthly decline. U.S.-bound shipments tumbled 13.8% year-on-year, driven by tariffs and weaker demand for autos and chips. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged as it gauges tariff impacts.
- Taiwan’s central bank kept its discount rate steady at 2.00%.
- Indonesia surprised markets with a rate cut to 4.75% amid political uncertainty.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
- The NZD/USD is down more than 1.50%.
- The CHF/AUD and the EUR/AUD are up more than 1.10%.
- The USD/RUB is down more than 1.90%.
- The USD/BRL is down more than 1.50%.
Commodities
- Gold prices touched a new all-time high above $3,700.
- Silver Futures are up more than 3.20%.
- Palladium Futures are down mre than 2.90%.
- Copper Futures are down more than 1.20%.
Indices
- The Bovespa index is up more than 2.20%.
- The Kospi index is up more than 1.80%.
- The STOXX 50 index is up more than 1.70%.
- The S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones all touched new highs this week.
Shares
Tops
- Warner Bros. Discovery: +40.59%
- Intel: +23.47%
- Magazine Luiza: +20.11%
- Tesla: +19.04%
- Paramount Skydance: +19.01%
- Natura Cosmeticos: +18.87%
- CrowdStrike: +17.37%
- Lam Research: +16.59%
- ASML Holding: +16.02%
- Applied Materials: +15.71%
- Synopsys: +15.42%
- Micron Technology: +14.33%
- Kering: +13.18%
- Stellantis: +12.06%
Flops
- Continental: -21.76%
- FactSet Research System: -17.10%
- Centene: -10.56%
- Oracle: -10.21%
This Week’s News to Follow
Monday 22 September
- 11:00 PM - Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 53.0
- Forecast: 52.7
- 11:00 PM - Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 55.8
- Forecast: 51
Tuesday 23 September
- 07:15 AM - French HCOB Composite PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 49.8
- Forecast: 50.4
- 07:15 AM - French HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 50.4
- Forecast: 51
- 07:15 AM - French HCOB Services PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 49.8
- Forecast: 50.1
- 07:30 AM - German HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 49.8
- Forecast: 50
- 07:30 AM - German HCOB Composite PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 50.5
- Forecast: 50.5
- 07:30 AM - German HCOB Services PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 49.3
- Forecast: 49.5
- 08:00 AM - European HCOB Composite PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 51
- Forecast: 51.1
- 08:00 AM - European HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 50.7
- Forecast: 51
- 08:00 AM - European HCOB Services PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 50.5
- Forecast: 50.5
- 08:30 AM - UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 47.0
- Forecast: 49
- 08:30 AM - UK S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 54.2
- Forecast: 51.7
- 01:45 PM - American S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 55.1
- Forecast: 54.6
- 01:45 PM - American S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 53.0
- Forecast: 52
- 01:45 PM - American S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 54.5
- Forecast: 53
Wednesday 24 September
- 08:00 AM - German Ifo Business Climate (September)
- Previous: 89.0
- Forecast: 88.4
- 12:30 AM - Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 49.7
- Forecast: 50.3
- 12:30 AM - Japanese S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)
- Previous: 53.1
- Forecast: 53.4
Thursday 25 September
- 06:00 AM - German GfK Consumer Confidence (October)
- Previous: -23.6
- Forecast: -23.3
- 12:30 PM - American Durable Goods Orders MoM (August)
- Previous: -2.8%
- Forecast: -0.5%
- 12:30 PM - American GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q2)
- Previous: -0.5%
- Forecast: 3.3%
- 02:00 PM - American Existing Home Sales (August)
- Previous: 4.01M
- Forecast: 3.98M
Friday 25 September
- 12:30 PM - American Core PCE Price Index MoM (August)
- Previous: 0.3%
- Forecast: 0.3%
- 12:30 PM - American Personal Income MoM (August)
- Previous: 0.4%
- Forecast: 0.3%
- 12:30 PM - American Personal Spending MoM (August)
- Previous: 0.5%
- Forecast: 0.4%
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Tuesday 23 September
- Micron Technology
Wednesday 24 September
- Carmax
Thursday 25 September
- Costco
- Accenture
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 19 September 2025
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