Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
● U.S. job growth accelerated before the shutdown, with 119,000 jobs added in September, the strongest increase since April, even as unemployment rose to 4.4%, a four-year high.
● With the shutdown delaying key data, no October unemployment rate will be published and October job metrics will only be released on December 16 with the November job report.
● Fed officials remain split on December policy, with minutes showing “strongly differing views” on whether to pause or cut rates.
● Richmond Fed’s Thomas Barkin warned that the lack of fresh data makes inflation assessment difficult, limiting guidance on upcoming policy.
● Vice Chair Philip Jefferson emphasized moving cautiously on rate cuts due to persistent inflation risks.
● U.S. existing home sales rose 1.2% in October to 4.1 million (eight-month high), +1.7% year-over-year, supported by earlier declines in mortgage rates.
● Construction spending increased 0.2% in August, while the trade deficit narrowed sharply by 24% to $59.6B amid a 5.1% drop in imports.
● U.S. import taxes contributed to economic contractions abroad, including Japan, Switzerland, Mexico and Ireland in Q3.
● Risk aversion hit crypto markets, with Bitcoin falling below $86,000, reaching a seven-month low, while Ether dropped to its lowest level in four months.
● Canadian inflation eased slightly as the CPI rose 2.2% year-over-year in October, compared with 2.4% in September.
● U.K. annual inflation remains elevated at 3.6%, much higher than the eurozone’s 2.1%, reinforcing expectations for a December BoE rate cut.
● U.K. GDP grew 0.1% in Q3, slowing from 0.3% in Q2.
● Home asking prices fell 1.8% in November to £364,833 in the U.K., a larger decline than usual ahead of the budget.
● Sales of homes priced above £2 million dropped 13% year-over-year in the U.K., though total sales agreed remain 4% higher than in 2024.
● Eurozone GDP growth forecasts for this year were lifted to 1.3% from 0.9%, supported by private consumption and investment.
● Industrial production in the euro area rose 0.2% in September, missing the 0.9% expectation.
● Inflation in Europe is now expected to ease to 1.9% in 2026, near the ECB’s target.
● Switzerland’s economy contracted 0.5% in Q3 as higher U.S. tariffs weighed on activity, following 0.2% growth in Q2.
● Swiss watch exports fell 4.4% in October, with exports to the U.S. plunging 47% due to tariffs, while exports to China grew nearly 13%.
● Authorities strengthened warnings of yen intervention, with the currency down about 6% since PM Sanae Takaichi took office.
● The BOJ signalled potential near-term rate hikes as yen weakness pushes up living costs.
● The government approved a ¥21.3 trillion ($135B) stimulus package to support growth today.
● Chinese retail sales rose 2.9% year-over-year in October, slightly below September’s 3% pace.
● Industrial production slowed to 4.9% in China, down from 6.5% in September.
● Chinese property investment fell 14.7% year-to-date, a deeper contraction than earlier in the year.
● Consumption remains weak in China, marking the longest slowdown in retail sales growth since 2021.
● The South African Reserve Bank cut its main repo rate to 6.75% amid expectations of softer inflation and stronger growth.
● Bank Indonesia kept rates steady at 4.75% for a second consecutive meeting to help stabilize the rupiah.
● Singapore raised its 2025 GDP outlook to around 4%, supported by a strong Q3.
● GDP grew 4.3% year-over-year in the first three quarters of 2025.
This Week’s Market Movers
● The USD/CHF is up more than 1.45%.
● The USD/JPY is up more than 1.35%.
● The AUD/USD is down more than 1.35%.
● Bitcoin prices erased all their 2025 gains.
● The USD/NOK is up more than 2.15%.
● The EUR/RUB is down more than 3.20%.
Commodities
● Natural Gas prices are up for the 6th week in a row.
● Brent and Light Crude prices are down more than 3%.
● Silver prices are down more than 2.70%.
● Platinum prices are down for the 7th week in a row.
Indices
● The VIX index is up more than 50%.
● The Turkish Bist 100 index is up more than 2.50%.
● The Chinese Shenzhen Component index is down more than 5.80%.
● The Korean KOSPI index is down more than 5.10%.
● The Italian FTSE Mib index is down more than 4.6%.
● The Nasdaq Composite index is down more than 2%.
● The Dow Jones index is down more than 3%.
Shares
Tops
● Game Workshop Group: +12.16%
● Solventum Corporation: +8.16%
● Regeneron Pharmaceuticals: +7.91%
● Republic Services: +6.53%
Flops
● Hapvida Participacoes: -45.09%
● Coinbase Global: -21.05%
● Strategy: -20.85%
● Robinwood Markets: -18.22%
● Advanced Micro Devices: -18.21%
● Burberry: -14.20%
● 3i: -13.19%
● Stellantis: -12.04%
● Edenred: -11.93%
● Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft: -10.69%
● Infineon Technologies: -10.05%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 24 November
● 09:00 AM - German Ifo Business Climate (November)
○ Previous: 88.4
○ Forecast: 88
Tuesday 25 November
● 01:30 PM - American PPI MoM (September)
○ Previous: -0.1%
○ Forecast: 0.3%
● 01:30 PM - American Retail Sales MoM (September)
○ Previous: 0.6%
○ Forecast: 0.4%
Wednesday 26 November
● 01:30 PM - American Durable Goods Orders MoM (September)
○ Previous: 2.9%
○ Forecast: 0.3%
● 01:30 PM - American Building Permits Prel (September)
○ Previous: 1.33M
○ Forecast: 1.34M
● 01:30 PM - American Building Permits Prel (October)
○ Forecast: 1.35M
● 01:30 PM - American Durable Goods Orders MoM (October)
○ Forecast: -0.3%
● 01:30 PM - American Core PCE Price Index MoM (September)
○ Previous: 0.2%
○ Forecast: 0.2%
● 01:30 PM - American Personal Income MoM (September)
○ Previous: 0.4%
○ Forecast: 0.4%
● 01:30 PM - American Personal Spending MoM (September)
○ Previous: 0.6%
○ Forecast: 0.4%
Thursday 27 November
● 07:00 AM - German GfK Consumer Confidence (December)
○ Previous: -24.1
○ Forecast: -22
Friday 28 November
● 07:45 AM - French Inflation Rate YoY Prel (November)
○ Previous: 0.9%
○ Forecast: 1.1%
● 01:00 PM - German Inflation Rate YoY Prel (November)
○ Previous: 2.3%
○ Forecast: 2.3%
● 01:30 PM - Canadian GDP Growth Rate Annualized (Q3)
○ Previous: -1.6%
○ Forecast: 0.4%
● 01:30 PM - Canadian GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3)
○ Previous: -0.4%
○ Forecast: 0.3%
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 24 November
● Zoom
Tuesday 25 November
● Best Buy
● Dell
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 21 November 2025
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Forecasts are not guarantees. Rates may change. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions may vary. Platforms’ tools do not guarantee success.