Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
● San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly backed a December rate cut, warning the labor market looks increasingly fragile and poses a bigger risk than inflation.
● Retail trends in the U.S. showed pressure from tariffs: September retail sales rose 0.2%, but spending weakened in tariff-sensitive categories like vehicles and electronics.
● U.S. consumer confidence fell in November, and producer prices rose 0.3% in September after a 0.1% drop in August, pointing to uneven inflation progress.
● U.S. home prices increased 1.3% in the 12 months through September, the slowest rise since early 2023.
● Unemployment claims fell to 216,000 in the U.S., showing low layoffs, but continued claims climbed to 1.96 million, signaling that finding new jobs is getting harder. The three-month average for job creation slipped to 62,000, and unemployment rose to 4.4%, adding to concerns over a cooling labor market.
● AI-related investment may have contributed to half of U.S. GDP growth in the first six months of the year. Barclays estimates a 20–30% market drop could cut GDP growth by 1–1.5 percentage points over 12 months.
● Mexico’s central bank cut its 2025 growth forecast after a Q3 contraction, now expecting 0.3% GDP growth, reduced from 0.6%.
● Treasury chief Rachel Reeves announced new tax increases expected to raise £26 billion in the U.K., boosting fiscal headroom to almost £22 billion, up from £9.9 billion in March.
● German consumer sentiment continued to improve, with spending willingness rising for a second month while saving intentions declined. Despite improving sentiment, both economic and income expectations weakened, showing doubts about a near-term rebound.
● The EU expects Germany—stagnant since 2019—to grow 1.2% in both 2026 and 2027, supported by a civil and defense spending push of up to €1 trillion.
● Germany avoided recession in Q3, helped by rising industrial orders and higher output in September.
● BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi argued for gradual rate hikes to avoid derailing wage growth and the path to stable 2% inflation.
● Even though prices have been above 2% for over three years in Japan, long-term inflation expectations still haven’t reached that level.
● The Bank of Korea kept rates unchanged at 2.50% for a fourth meeting.
● The BOK raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.0% (from 0.9%) and its 2026 forecast to 1.8% (from 1.6%).
● Inflation in South Koreao is now expected to average 2.1% in both 2025 and 2026, slightly higher than prior estimates.
● The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its cash rate to 2.25% from 2.50%, bringing total easing to 325 bps since mid-2024. U.S. tariff uncertainty and global geopolitical risks were cited as factors slowing New Zealand’s recovery.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The NZD/USD is up more than 2.35%.
● The NZD/CHF is up more than 2.30%.
● The AUD/USD and the GBP/TRY are up more than 1.35%.
● The GBP/USD is up more than 1.10%.
● The USD/RUB is down more than 2.10%.
● The EUR/NZD is down more than 1.6%.
● The TRY/JPY is down more than 1%.
Commodities
● Silver prices are up more than 8%.
● Platinum prices are up more than 7%.
● Gold prices are up more than 3%
Indices
● The VIX index is down more than 17%.
● The Nasdaq Composite index is up more than 3%.
● The S&P500 index is up more than 2.80%
● The Dow Jones index is up more than 2.70%.
● The Nikkei 225 and the BRA50 indices are up more than 2%.
Shares
Tops
● Broadcom: +16.69%
● Games Workshop Group: +14.94%
● Stanley Black & Decker: +14.07%
● Ralph Lauren: +13.52%
● GE Healthcare Technologies: +13.18%
● D.R Horton: +12.70%
● Lennar: +12.57%
● Bayer: +12.57%
● Shopify:+12.45%
● Revvity: +12.44%
● Analog Devices: +12.36%
Flops
● ENGIE Brasil Energia: -26.23%
● MRBF Global Foods: -17.40%
● Zscaler: -13.91%
● Marcopolo: -13.22%
● Strategy: -13.20%
● Datadog: -10.64%
● Jacobs Solutions: -10.07%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 01 December
● 01:45 AM - Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (November)
○ Previous: 50.6
○ Forecast: 50.9
● 08:15 AM - Spanish HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)
○ Previous: 52.1
○ Forecast: 52.3
● 08:50 AM - French HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (November)
○ Previous: 48.8
○ Forecast: 47.8
● 08:55 AM - German HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (November)
○ Previous: 49.6
○ Forecast: 48.4
● 09:30 AM - UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (November)
○ Previous: 49.7
○ Forecast: 50.2
● 02:30 PM - Canadian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)
○ Previous: 49.6
○ Forecast: 50.4
● 02:45 PM - American S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)
○ Previous: 52.5
○ Forecast: 51.9
● 03:00 PM - American ISM Manufacturing PMI (November)
○ Previous: 48.7
○ Forecast: 49.3
Tuesday 02 December
● 05:00 AM - Japanese Consumer Confidence (November)
○ Previous: 35.8
○ Forecast: 36.1
● 10:00 PM - Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Final (November)
○ Previous: 52.1
○ Forecast: 52.6
● 10:00 PM - Australian S&P Global Services PMI Final (November)
○ Previous: 52.5
○ Forecast: 52.7
Wednesday 03 December
● 12:30 AM - Australian GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3)
○ Previous: 0.6%
○ Forecast: 0.6%
● 01:45 AM - Chinese RatingDog Services PMI (November)
○ Previous: 52.6
○ Forecast: 51.9
● 01:45 AM - Chinese RatingDog Composite PMI (November)
○ Previous: 51.8
○ Forecast: 51.7
● 08:15 AM - Spanish HCOB Services PMI (November)
○ Previous: 56.6
○ Forecast: 56
● 08:15 AM - Spanish HCOB Composite PMI (November)
○ Previous: 56
○ Forecast: 55.5
● 08:50 AM - French HCOB Composite PMI Final (November)
○ Previous: 47.7
○ Forecast: 49.9
● 08:50 AM - French HCOB Services PMI Final (November)
○ Previous: 48.0
○ Forecast: 50.8
● 08:55 AM - German HCOB Composite PMI Final (November)
○ Previous: 53.9
○ Forecast: 52.1
● 08:55 AM - German HCOB Services PMI Final (November)
○ Previous: 54.6
○ Forecast: 52.7
● 09:30 AM - UK S&P Global Composite PMI Final (November)
○ Previous: 52.2
○ Forecast: 50.5
● 09:30 AM - UK S&P Global Services PMI Final (November)
○ Previous: 52.3
○ Forecast: 50.5
● 02:30 PM - Canadian S&P Global Composite PMI (November)
○ Previous: 50.3
○ Forecast: 50.7
● 02:30 PM - Canadian S&P Global Services PMI (November)
○ Previous: 50.5
○ Forecast: 50.6
● 02:45 PM - American S&P Global Composite PMI Final (November)
○ Previous: 54.6
○ Forecast: 54.8
● 02:45 PM - American S&P Global Services PMI Final (November)
○ Previous: 54.8
○ Forecast: 55.0
● 03:00 PM - American ISM Services PMI (November)
○ Previous: 52.4
○ Forecast: 52.7
Thursday 04 December
● 12:30 AM - Australian Balance of Trade (October)
○ Previous: A$3.938B
○ Forecast: A$4.4B
● 08:30 AM - French HCOB Construction PMI (November)
○ Previous: 39.8
○ Forecast: 42.5
● 08:30 AM - German HCOB Construction PMI (November)
○ Previous: 42.8
○ Forecast: 44
● 09:30 AM - UK S&P Global Construction PMI (November)
○ Previous: 44.1
○ Forecast: 45
● 03:00 PM - Canadian Ivey PMI s.a (November)
○ Previous: 52.4
○ Forecast: 52.2
Friday 05 December
● 01:30 PM - Canadian Unemployment Rate (November)
○ Previous: 6.9%
○ Forecast: 7.0%
● 03:00 PM - American Core PCE Price Index MoM (September)
○ Previous: 0.2%
○ Forecast: 0.2%
● 03:00 PM - American Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (December)
○ Previous: 51.0
○ Forecast: 53
● 03:00 PM - American Personal Income MoM (September)
○ Previous: 0.4%
○ Forecast: 0.4%
● 03:00 PM - American Personal Spending MoM (September)
○ Previous: 0.6%
○ Forecast: 0.4%
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Wednesday 03 December
● Dollar Tree
● Salesforce
● Industria de Diseno Textil
Thursday 04 December
● Dollar General
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 28 November 2025
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