Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
● The government shutdown reached 43 days, delaying key economic updates. The White House said October inflation and labor-market reports will likely not be released.
● Federal Reserve officials grew more divided at the October meeting. With data unavailable due to the shutdown, inflation hawks pushed to pause easing. The Fed cut rates in September and late October, bringing the range to 3.75%–4%.
● Bank of Canada minutes showed officials debated delaying the latest rate cut before ultimately lowering the key rate to 2.25% on Oct. 29.
● The ECB signaled no near-term rate changes unless the eurozone faces a major new shock, according to board member Isabel Schnabel.
● Eurozone industrial production rose 0.2% in September, a small rebound after August’s decline but well below the 0.9% increase economists expected.
● German analysts warned that higher spending on defense and infrastructure may not be enough to resolve Germany’s broader economic challenges.
● The U.K. unemployment rate increased to 5.0% in July–September, the highest since early 2021, raising expectations for a BOE rate cut.
● U.K. GDP grew 0.1% in Q3, slowing from 0.3% in Q2. Markets now price an over 80% chance of a December BOE cut.
● Britain’s Labour government is preparing its second major tax increase in two years, aiming to support public finances without unsettling markets.
● China reported its weakest investment performance in years, with property investment down 14.7% from January to October compared with a year earlier, deeper than the previous −13.9% reading.
● Retail sales grew 2.9% year-over-year in October in China, slightly below September’s 3.0%.
● Chinese industrial production rose 4.9% in October, slowing sharply from September’s 6.5%.
● Overall consumption momentum remains soft in China, marking the longest slowdown since 2021.
● Cabinet minister Sanae Takaichi continued calling for stronger coordination with the Bank of Japan, comments that have contributed to further yen weakness.
● The RBA may be close to ending its rate-cut cycle, with Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warning the economy could be “boxed in,” as demand is already running ahead of supply.
● South Korea unveiled more than 15 trillion won (about $10.2 billion) in support for its auto sector, including new loans, tariff-quota measures, and expanded EV subsidies.
● The recent U.S.–Korea trade agreement lowered U.S. tariffs on Korean autos to 15%, but export concerns for carmakers remain.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The USD/JPY is up more than 1% and reached its highest level since February.
● The EUR/JPY reached an all-time high and is up more than 1.80%.
● The CHF/JPY is up more than 3.10%.
● The CHF/GBP is up almost 2%.
● The USD/CHF is down more than 1.80%.
● The USD/NOK is down more than 1.65%.
Commodities
● Oats prices are up more than 6.5%
● Natural Gas prices are up more than 5.84% and up for the 5th week in a row.
● Sugar prices are up after 5 weeks down.
● Silver prices are up more than 8.90%.
● Cocoa prices are down more than 9.90%.
Indices
● Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite index and the Dow reached an all-time high.
● The VIX index is up more than 8.9%.
● The Italian FTSE Mib index is up more than 2.85%.
● The French CAC 40 index is up more than 2.65%.
● The Brazilian index Bovespa is up more than 2.50%.
● The Nasdaq Composite index is down more than 2.20%.
● The Turkish Bist 100 index is down more than 4.45%.
Shares
Tops
● Expedia: +24.24%
● MRBF Global: +22.55%
● Albemarle: +21.88%
● Akamai Technologies: +20.21%
● SSE: +18.64%
● Becton, Dickinson and Company: +17.35%
● Bayer: +12.96%
● Solventrum: +11.49%
● Endeavour Mining: +10.96%
● Eli Lilly and Company: +10.22%
● Merck & Company: +10.00%
Flops
● Hapvida Participacoes e Investimentos: -40.16%
● 3i: -22.28%
● Rightmove: -17.90%
● Super Micro Computer: -17.44%
● Strategy: -17.29%
● Euro Trader Group: -16.51%
● Block: -16.20%
● ARM Holdings: -15.98%
● Applovin: -14.63%
● Qnity Electronics: -14.10%
● Edenred: -13.51%
● Robinhood Markets: -13.19%
● Tesla: -12.98%
● Scout24: -10.83%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 17 November
● 01:30 PM - Canadian Inflation Rate YoY (October)
○ Previous: 2.4%
○ Forecast: 2.4%
Tuesday 18 November
● 12:30 AM - Australian RBA Meeting Minutes
● 11:50 PM - Japanese Balance of Trade (October)
○ Previous: ¥-234.6B
○ Forecast: ¥-150.0B
Wednesday 19 November
● 07:00 AM - UK Inflation Rate YoY (October)
○ Previous: 3.8%
○ Forecast: 3.7%
● 07:00 PM - American FOMC Minutes
● 07:00 PM - American Building Permits Prel (September)
○ Previous: 1.33M
○ Forecast: 1.34M
● 07:00 PM - American Building Permits Prel (October)
○ Forecast: 1.35M
● 07:00 PM - American Housing Starts (September)
○ Previous: 1.307M
○ Forecast: 1.33M
● 07:00 PM - American Housing Starts (October)
○ Forecast: 1.33M
Thursday 20 November
● 03:00 PM - American Existing Home Sales (October)
○ Previous: 4.06M
○ Forecast: 4.06M
● 10:00 PM - Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 49.7
○ Forecast: 50.2
● 10:00 PM - Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 52.5
○ Forecast: 52.9
● 11:30 PM - Japanese Inflation Rate YoY (October)
○ Previous: 2.9%
○ Forecast: 3.1%
Friday 21 November
● 12:30 AM - Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 48.2
○ Forecast: 49
● 12:30 AM - Japanese S&P Global Services PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 53.1
○ Forecast: 52.8
● 07:00 AM - UK Retail Sales MoM (October)
○ Previous: 0.5%
○ Forecast: -0.2%
● 08:15 AM - French HCBO Composite PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 47.7
○ Forecast: 48.9
● 08:15 AM - French HCBO Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 48.8
○ Forecast: 49.6
● 08:15 AM - French HCBO Services PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 48
○ Forecast: 49.4
● 08:30 AM - German HCBO Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 49.6
○ Forecast: 50.4
● 08:30 AM - German HCBO Composite PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 53.9
○ Forecast: 53.2
● 08:30 AM - German HCBO Services PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 54.6
○ Forecast: 53.8
● 09:00 AM - European HCBO Composite PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 52.5
○ Forecast: 52.2
● 09:00 AM - European HCBO Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 50.0
○ Forecast: 50.9
● 09:00 AM - European HCBO Services PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 53.0
○ Forecast: 52.3
● 09:30 AM - UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 49.7
○ Forecast: 50.6
● 09:30 AM - UK S&P Global Services PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 52.3
○ Forecast: 52.5
● 02:45 PM - American S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 54.6
○ Forecast:53.8
● 02:45 PM - American S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 52.5
○ Forecast: 52
● 02:45 PM - American S&P Global Services PMI Flash (November)
○ Previous: 54.8
○ Forecast:54
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Tuesday 18 November
● Weibo Corporation
● Medtronic
● HOME DEPOT
● BAIDU
Wednesday 19 November
● Target
● NVIDIA
● Lowe'S Cos
● TJX Companies
Thursday 20 November
● WALMART
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 7 November 2025
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