What Happened Last Week?
- The U.S. services sector grew for the 10th straight month in April, with the ISM Services PMI at 51.6 - marking expansion in 56 of the past 59 months since the post-COVID recovery.
- Friedrich Merz became the new chancellor of Germany.
- Eurozone retail sales fell more than expected month-on-month in March 2025 with a 0.1% decrease.
- The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record level in March, as it increased by 14% to $140.5 billion.
- The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for the United States from the FRED reached its highest level since at least 1985.
- Warren Buffet announced its retirement.
- The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at the 4.25-4.50% range, due to economic uncertainty caused by Trump's tariffs.
- The Bank of England lowered its main interest rate to 4.25% due to concerns about the potential negative impact that the Trump administration's tariff policies could have on global and local economic growth despite trade deals.
- Sweden's and Norway's central banks decided to maintain their current interest rates unchanged.
- The US has reached a trade agreement with Britain, according to Trump's announcement, with Chinese trade talks scheduled to follow.
- Bitcoin has once again hit the $100,000 level, a milestone it hasn't reached since February.
- In April 2025, China's exports saw a 8.1% year-over-year increase, reaching USD 315.7 billion. Despite this strong showing, the growth rate sharply declined from March's 12.4% increase.
- Chinese exports to the USA plunged 21% in April.
- April marked the third consecutive month of declining purchases in China, with imports contracting by 0.2% year-on-year to USD 219.5 billion (after a 4.3% drop in March).
- China decided to reduce the seven-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4% and to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points.
- The Chinese government also chose to implement measures to support financing for key sectors, including technology and real estate.
- These actions are part of China's efforts to boost economic growth amid rising trade concerns.
- India's military action against neighboring Pakistan has heightened tensions in the region.
Last Week’s Market Movers
Forex
- The Taiwanese dollar reached a three-year high against the USD at the beginning of the week with a record surge in two trading days. Over the last 5 days, the currency pair is up almost 6.5%.
- The Swiss National Bank may consider again a negative interest rates policy amid growing economic uncertainty and a significant rise in the Swiss Franc.
- EUR/USD down for the 3rd week in a row.
- EUR/GBP down for the 4th week in a row.
- GBP/JPY up for the 5th week in a row.
Commodities
- Second bullish week in a row for Palladium prices.
- Orange juice prices are losing around 2%, after being down more than 13% over the last two weeks.
- Oil prices are up more than 2% after reaching their lowest level since the beginning of 2021.
Indices
- Wall Street stock indexes ended a nine-day winning streak on Monday.
- The Italian FTSE Mib index reached its highest level in 6 weeks above the 38,900 level.
- DAX 40 is up almost 4%.
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up around 2.50%.
- Nikkei 225 is up about 2%.
- VIX is down around 7%.
Shares
Tops
- DexCom : +19.56%
- Rheinmetall : +16.57%
- Walt Disney Company: +15.18%
- Airbus : +10%
Flops
- Moderna: 11.92%
- Merck & Company: -8.11%
This Week’s News to Follow
Tuesday 13 May
- 12:30 AM - Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
- Previous: -6
- 01:30 AM - Australian NAB Business Confidence (April)
- Previous: -3
- 06:00 AM - UK Unemployment Rate (March)
- Previous: 4.4%
- Forecast: 4.4%
- 09:00 AM - German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)
- Previous: -14.0
- 12:30 PM - German Core Inflation Rate YoY (April)
- Previous: 2.8%
- Forecast: 2.8%
- 12:30 PM - American Inflation Rate YoY (April)
- Previous: 2.4%
- Forecast: 2.6%
Thursday 15 May
- 06:00 AM - UK GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel (Q1)
- Previous: 1.5%
- Forecast: 0.9%
- 06:00 AM - UK GDP MoM (March)
- Previous: 0.5%
- Forecast: 0.1%
- 12:30 PM - American PPI MoM (April)
- Previous: -0.4%
- Forecast: 0.2%
- 12:30 PM - American Retail Sales MoM (April)
- Previous: 1.4%
- Forecast: -0.8%
- 11:50 PM - Japanese GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q1)
- Previous: 0.6%
- Forecast: -0.1%
Friday 16 May
- 12:30 PM - American Building Permits Prel (April)
- Previous: 1.467M
- Forecast: 1.45M
- 12:30 PM - American Housing Starts (April)
- Previous: 1.324M
- Forecast: 1.31M
- 02:00 PM - American Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (May)
- Previous: 52.2
- Forecast: 52
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 12 May
- Grifols
- Sony ADR
- Phoenix ADR
- Alibaba ADR
Tuesday 13 May
- Hannover Rueck
- Bayer
- CISCO
- Muenchener Rueckversicherungs
Wednesday 14 May
- Bouygues
- Telefonica
- Porsche
- Sumitomo Mitsui Financial ADR
- EXPERIAN
- Alstom
- ABN AMRO
- E.ON
- JD.com ADR
- COMPASS
Thursday 15 May
- KBC Group
- ENGIE
- Allianz
- RWE
- Mizuho Financial ADR
- Deutsche Telekom
- Siemens
- Mitsubishi UFJ Financial ADR
- 3i Group
- ThyssenKrupp
- WALMART
Friday 16 May
- Swiss Re
- Compagnie Financiere Richemont
- Semapa-Sociedade De Investim
Source: Trading Economics, TradingView, and ActivTrades’ Data as of May 8 2025
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