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Weekly Outlook

Markets React to Elections, Central Banks, and Oil Moves

Carolane de Palmas
May 05, 2025

What Happened Last Week?


  1. In the recent Canadian election, Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal party secured another term but did not win a majority. A notable shift occurred with 17% of seats changing hands, a significant increase from the 7% turnover in 2021.
  2. Even with increasing inflation, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its interest rates at 0.5%. Their decision reflected concerns that rising U.S. trade tariffs could negatively impact Japan's economic outlook.
  3. The BoJ has significantly reduced its growth outlook for the Japanese economy: 0.5% from 1.1% for this year and 0.7% from 1% for 2026.
  4. After 2 weeks of loss, yields on the US T-Notes increased 2.36%, while yields on the US T-Bonds increased 2.13%.
  5. Some US giants expressed concerns about the future such as UPS and General Motors .
  6. The U.S. economy shrank at an annualized rate of -0.3% in Q1 2025, while the Eurozone surprised to the upside with 0.4% growth over the same period.
  7. This marks the first time in three years that Eurozone growth has outpaced that of the U.S., and only the fifth instance in the past decade—out of 40 quarters—where euro area growth has exceeded U.S. growth by more than one percentage point.
  8. Microsoft and Meta published strong results, while Apple and Amazon disappointed.
  9. The Magnificent Seven are still down more than 10% in 2025 so far.
  10. The U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding expectations but falling short of March’s gains, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.
  11. Although uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies and tariffs is making business forecasting and hiring more difficult, the impact has not yet led to a significant slowdown.
  12. Brent prices reached their lowest level since February 2021 at $59.22 a barrel.
  13. Eight OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman) have agreed to raise oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in June 2025, compared to the required production level set for May 2025.
  14. Japanese officials suggest that the country's large US Treasury holdings could be used as a negotiation card in trade talks with the United States.
  15. Australian federal election 2025 led to the re-election of the Albanese Labor government.



Last Week’s Market Movers


Forex

Forex Performance Chart 28.04-04.05 2025

  1. The Dollar Index touched its highest level in 3 weeks after its worst start to any year since 1989.
  2. The AUD/USD bounced back from its 200-day EMA on the daily chart.
  3. The GBP/USD reached its highest level in 3 years.
  4. The offshore Chinese Yuan reached its strongest level since March 2025.
  5. The USD/JPY saw its second consecutive week of gains after the Bank of Japan decided to maintain its interest rates unchanged.



Commodities

Commodities Performance Chart 28.04-04.05 2025

  1. Oil prices experienced their most significant weekly decline since late March, largely driven by anticipation surrounding the OPEC+ meeting.
  2. Citi forecasts coffee prices to reach $4.20 per pound within the next three months.
  3. After four consecutive weeks of losses, U.S. natural gas futures recorded a gain.
  4. Gold recorded 4 bearish trading sessions in a row and ended the week with the largest loss since February.
  5. Sugar prices lost more than 5%.
  6. Orange juice prices experienced significant volatility this week, with the difference between the highest and lowest trading points reaching 12%.
  7. Cotton prices recorded their first weekly loss after 3 bullish weeks.


Indices

Indices Performance Chart 28.04-04.05 2025

  1. On Friday, the FTSE 100 achieved its 15th consecutive day of gains, a record that marked its longest bullish streak since the index's inception in 1984.
  2. The IBEX 35 was hovering around its highest level since the 2007 financial crisis.
  3. The Bovespa index was trading at its highest level since September 2024.


Shares


Tops

  1. Arista Networks : +19.12%
  2. Carrier Global Corporation: +18.92%
  3. Entain PLC Ord Euro : +17.65%
  4. Automob On: +16.67%
  5. Dexcom : +15.20%
  6. Rheinmetall : +13.63%
  7. Airbus : +11.08%


Flops

  1. AZUL PN: -36.91%
  2. Becton, Dickinson and Co : -17.43%
  3. Edenred: -15.63%
  4. P.Acucar, Cbdon: -10.55%



This Week’s News to Follow


Monday 05 May

  1. 2:00 PM - American ISM Services PMI (April)
  2. Previous: 50.8
  3. Forecast: 49.4


Tuesday 06 May

  1. 12:30 PM - Canadian Balance of Trade (March)
  2. Previous: C$-1.52B
  3. Forecast: C$-6.9B
  4. 02:00 PM - Canadian Ivey PMI s.a (April)
  5. Previous: 51.3
  6. Forecast: 48


Wednesday 07 May

  1. 06:00 PM - American Fed Interest Rate Decision
  2. Previous: 4.5%
  3. Forecast: 4.5%


Thursday 08 May

  1. 06:00 AM - German Balance of Trade (March)
  2. Previous: €17.7B
  3. Forecast: €22B
  4. 11:00 AM - UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
  5. Previous: 4.5%
  6. Forecast: 4.25%


Friday 09 May

  1. 03:00 AM - Chinese Balance of Trade (April)
  2. Previous: $102.64B
  3. Forecast: $70.0B
  4. 03:00 AM - Chinese Exports YoY (April)
  5. Previous: 12.4%
  6. Forecast: -2.0%
  7. 03:00 AM - Chinese Imports YoY (April)
  8. Previous: -4.3%
  9. Forecast: -5.0%
  10. 12:30 PM - Canadian Unemployment Rate (April)
  11. Previous: 6.7%
  12. Forecast: 6.8%


Major Earnings Reports to Watch

Monday 05 May

  1. Mattel
  2. Ford Motor
  3. Rockwell Automation
  4. BioNTech
  5. Vertex Pharmaceuticals
  6. Loews Corporation
  7. Virgin Galactic
  8. Tyson Foods


Tuesday 06 May

  1. Mattel
  2. AMD
  3. Anheuser-Busch InBev
  4. Intesa Sanpaolo
  5. Hugo Boss
  6. Zalando
  7. Ferrari
  8. Marathon Petroleum
  9. Unicredit
  10. Chesapeake
  11. Beyond Meat
  12. Kellogg Company
  13. Marathon Oil
  14. Continental


Wednesday 07 May

  1. Jeronimo Martins
  2. Fortinet
  3. Uber Technologies
  4. BMW
  5. Arm Holdings
  6. WALT DISNEY
  7. Novo Nordisk
  8. LEGRAND
  9. Veolia Environnement
  10. AMC Holdings
  11. Barrick Gold
  12. Cellnex Telecom


Thursday 08 May

  1. EDP Renovaveis
  2. Prysmian
  3. CTT CORREIOS PORT
  4. ConocoPhillips
  5. Solvay
  6. Enel
  7. PUMA
  8. Henkel AG & Co
  9. Toyota Motor ADR
  10. McKesson
  11. Rheinmetall
  12. Poste Italiane
  13. Honda Motor ADR
  14. Expedia Group
  15. Novavax
  16. Infineon Technologies


Friday 09 May

  1. Commerzbank


Source: Trading Economics, TradingView, Reuters, US Treasury, and ActivTrades’ Data as of May 3 2025


The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.


All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.


Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.

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