Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
- Japan's economy contracted for the first time in a year, shrinking by 0.7% on an annualized basis in the first quarter of 2025.
- A surge of foreign investment poured into Japanese assets in April, coinciding with a notable outflow from U.S. markets.
- Following a trade truce of 90 days agreed upon in Switzerland over the weekend with the Trump administration, China has temporarily lifted export restrictions on 28 American companies.
- But the country is maintaining its ban on the export of seven rare earth metals to the United States.
- The American CPI increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% month-over-month in April, resulting in a 12-month inflation rate of 2.3%, marking its weakest pace since February 2021.
- Tariffs squeezing profit margins contributed to a 0.5% drop in US wholesale prices in April, the largest monthly fall since the Covid-19 economic downturn. This decline resulted in the annual PPI inflation rate easing to 2.4% in April from March. The March reading was also revised downward, from 0 to -0.4%.
- The U.S. and Iran could agree on a nuclear deal. If finalized, the Trump administration's proposed nuclear deal with Iran has the potential to expand oil supply.
- Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $109,000.
- The Fed is updating its policy framework in response to changes in inflation and interest rates that have taken place since 2020 explained Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
- The Eurozone's GDP growth for the first quarter was revised downwards to 0.3%, compared to the initial estimate of 0.4%.
- In Q1 2025, the U.K. GDP rose by 0.7%, faster than the U.S. and the eurozone.
- This month and early in the summer, the largest retailer, Walmart, intends to increase prices.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
- Down around 7% since January, the Dollar is on course to record its largest annual decline in 8 years.
- EUR/GBP down for the 5th week in a row.
Commodities
- Oil prices are up for a second bullish week on trade war truce between the U.S. and China with bearish pressures due to the possible U.S.-Iran deal.
- Gold prices recorded their worst week in six months.
- Prices of natural gas lost almost 12%.
- Cocoa prices were up almost 10%.
- China recently saw a 12-year decline in soybean imports
Indices
- Monday saw 3-5% rises for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indexes—the largest one-day percentage advances since April 9.
- The S&P 500 is up by more than 20% in the 36 days since it hit a 15-month low on April 7. The index took just 16 days to hit the 20%-recovery-from-the-lows mark in 2020 and 18 days in 2009.
Shares
Tops
- First Solar: +53.18%
- Super Micro Computer: +44.69%
- The Trade Desk: +41.14%
- AZZAS 2154: +27.31%
- Stellantis: +14.66%
- Daimler: +13.62%
Flops
- UnitedHealthGroup: -29.75%
- AZUL: -17.24%
- Imperial Brands PLC: -15.42%
- Raiadrogasilon: -15.20%
Next Week’s News to Follow
Monday 19 May
- 2:00 AM - Chinese Industrial Production YoY (April)
- Previous: 7.7%
- Forecast: 6.2%
- 2:00 AM - Chinese Retail Sales YoY (April)
- Previous: 5.9%
- Forecast: 5.6%
Tuesday 20 May
- 04:30 AM - Australian RBA Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 4.1%
- Forecast: 3.85%
- 12:30 PM - Canadian Inflation Rate YoY (April)
- Previous: 2.3%
- Forecast: 2.5%
- 11:50 PM - Japanese Balance of Trade (April)
- Previous: ¥544.1B
- Forecast: ¥-200.0B
Wednesday 21 May
- 06:00 AM - UK Inflation Rate YoY (April)
- Previous: 2.6%
- Forecast: 3.3%
Thursday 22 May
- 07:30 AM - German HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)
- Previous: 48.4
- Forecast: 49.1
- 08:00 AM - German Ifo Business Climate (May)
- Previous: 86.9
- Forecast: 86.4
- 08:30 AM - UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)
- Previous: 45.4
- Forecast: 46
- 08:30 AM - UK S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)
- Previous: 49
- Forecast: 49.3
- 02:00 PM - American Existing Home Sales (April)
- Previous: 4.02M
- Forecast: 3.9M
- 11:30 PM - Japanese Inflation Rate YoY (April)
- Previous: 3.6%
- Forecast: 3.7%
Friday 23 May
- 06:00 AM - UK Retail Sales MoM (April)
- Previous: 0.4%
- Forecast: -0.2%
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 19 May
- Zoom
Tuesday 20 May
- HOME DEPOT
- Photronics
Wednesday 21 May
- Banco Comercial
- Weibo Corporation ADR
- Sonae
- Lowe'S Cos
- Medtronic
- Target
- TJX Companies
- Altri
- BAIDU ADR
Thursday 22 May
- AEGON
Friday 23 May
Nothing
Source: Trading Economics, TradingView, and ActivTrades’ Data as of May 15 and 16 2025
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