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News & Analysis
Weekly Outlook

Markets Rally as Earnings Start, Bitcoin Surges, Inflation Mixed

Carolane de Palmas
July 18, 2025

Weekly Outlook

What Happened This Week?

  1. The second-quarter corporate earnings season kicked off this week.
  2. China's exports unexpectedly rose by 5.8% in June compared to the previous year, surpassing forecasts and suggesting a positive impact from the recent trade truce with the U.S.
  3. China's imports also grew by 1.1% year-over-year in June.
  4. Canada's annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed to 1.9% in June, an increase from 1.7% in May.
  5. June's US inflation showed only a slight impact from tariffs and a softer core reading, which might lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. US CPI reached 2.7% in June, after 2.4% in May.
  6. The UK's inflation rate unexpectedly rose to 3.6% in June, up from 3.4% in May, indicating a persistent challenge of high inflation amidst sluggish economic growth.
  7. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand remained flat in June, following a 0.3% increase in May and a 0.3% decrease in April. Over the 12 months ending in June, the unadjusted PPI for final demand saw a 2.3% rise.
  8. Following a strong first quarter, Europe's exports to the U.S. dropped for the second month in a row in May, though they still remained higher than the previous year. Overall, exports decreased by 0.8%.
  9. Indonesia's central bank has restarted its cycle of cutting interest rates, lowering its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%.
  10. On Wednesday, the European Union's executive body unveiled a €2 trillion ($2.31 trillion) budget proposal for the bloc, notably increasing funding allocated for defense.
  11. Australia's unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% in June 2025.
  12. In June, U.S. retail sales grew by 0.6% from the prior month.
  13. China's economy exceeded expectations in the first half of the year, with a 5.2% GDP increase in the second quarter contributing to 5.3% first-half growth. However, analysts believe maintaining this momentum will be challenging in the coming months.
  14. Japan's core consumer prices increased by 3.3% in June, a decline from May's 3.7% rise, primarily due to lower energy prices, yet high food prices (especially for rice) continue to concern policymakers, influencing the Bank of Japan's cautious approach to interest rate hikes amid trade negotiation uncertainties with the U.S.
  15. The House of Representatives moved forward with three bills on Thursday, aiming to establish regulations for cryptocurrencies.


This Week’s Market Movers

Forex



  1. Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $123,000.
  2. The EUR/USD down for the second week in a row.
  3. The EUR/GBP up for the thrid week in a row.
  4. The AUD/USD down for the first time after 3 weeks up.


Commodities



  1. The United States, the world's top corn supplier, is expected to export a record amount of corn in the 2024-25 marketing year, just exceeding its 2020-21 high.
  2. Natural gas prices up more than 6.5%.
  3. Sugar prices up for the second week in a row after reaching their lowest level since April 2021 in earlier this month.
  4. Orange juice prices are up more than 9%, after almost +31% last week.
  5. Cocoa prices down almost 10%.
  6. Coffee prices up more than 7.40%.


Indices



  1. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes reached unprecedented highs, primarily driven by robust earnings reports from key companies.
  2. Japan225 up after two weeks down.
  3. German40 is ending the week trading at its highest level on record.
  4. The UK100 is at its highest level.
  5. The HKInd is trading at its highest level


Shares

Tops

  1. P.ACUCAR,CBDON: +20.09%
  2. Advanced Micro Devices: +12.17%
  3. Warner Bros: +11.75%
  4. Shopify: +10.74%
  5. Coinbase: +10.30%
  6. PETZ ON ATZ: +10.14%
  7. MicroStrategy: +9.40%


Flops

  1. Renault: -18.89%
  2. Waters Corporation: -15.14%
  3. Atlassian: -13.47%
  4. Molina Healthcare: -12.34%
  5. Elevance Health: -11.72%
  6. Abbott Laboratories: -9.89%
  7. Centene: -9.87%
  8. Emphase Energy: -9.76%
  9. Zscaler: -9.38%


This Week’s News to Follow

Tuesday 22 July

  1. 01:30 AM - RBA Meeting Minutes
  2. 12:30 PM - American Fed Chair Powell Speech


Wednesday 23 July

  1. 02:00 PM - American Existing Home Sales (June)
  2. Previous: 4.03M
  3. Forecast: 4M


Thursday 24 July

  1. 06:00 AM - German GfK Consumer Confidence (August)
  2. Previous: -20.3
  3. Forecast: -20
  4. 07:30 AM - German HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)
  5. Previous: 49.0
  6. Forecast: 49.5
  7. 08:30 AM - UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)
  8. Previous: 47.7
  9. Forecast: 48.5
  10. 08:30 AM - UK S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)
  11. Previous: 52.8
  12. Forecast: 52.5
  13. 12:15 PM - European Deposit Facility Rate
  14. Previous: 2%
  15. Forecast: 2%
  16. 12:15 PM - European ECB Interest Rate Decision
  17. Previous: 2.15%
  18. Forecast: 2.15%
  19. 12:45 PM - European ECB Press Conference


Friday 25 July

  1. 06:00 AM - UK Retail Sales MoM (June)
  2. Previous: -2.7%
  3. Forecast: 2.0%
  4. 08:00 AM - German Ifo Business Climate (July)
  5. Previous: 88.4
  6. Forecast: 88.9
  7. 12:30 PM - American Durable Goods Orders MoM (June)
  8. Previous: 16.4%
  9. Forecast: -11%


Major Earnings Reports to Watch

Monday 21 July

  1. Galp Energia
  2. VERIZON


Tuesday 22 July

  1. Poste Italiane
  2. General Motors
  3. Philip Morris
  4. COCA-COLA
  5. Lockheed Martin
  6. GOOGLE
  7. Halliburton
  8. SAP


Wednesday 23 July

  1. TESLA MOTORS
  2. T-Mobile US
  3. Universal Health Services
  4. IBM
  5. Hasbro
  6. UCB
  7. AT&T
  8. Chipotle Mexican Grill
  9. Iberdrola
  10. Mattel
  11. Alphabet


Thursday 24 July

  1. INTEL
  2. TechnipFMC
  3. Deutsche Bank
  4. Repsol
  5. LLOYDS BANKING
  6. Dassault Systemes
  7. RELX PLC
  8. BNP Paribas
  9. Nokia Corp
  10. American Airlines
  11. Union Pacific
  12. STMicro
  13. Newmont Goldcorp
  14. Banco de Sabadell


Friday 25 July

  1. Volkswagen
  2. NATWEST
  3. Aon
  4. Total


Source: Trading Economics, TradingView, Yahoo Finance, and ActivTrades’ Data as of July 18 2025


The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.


All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.


Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Forecasts are not guarantees. Rates may change. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions may vary. Platforms’ tools do not guarantee success.

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