US Stocks
The S&P 500 is on track to close the year with gains of around 17%, following returns of more than 20% in both 2023 and 2024. Against this backdrop, the key question is whether the rally can extend into next year. The answer largely depends on investor sentiment. Valuations appear stretched, particularly in the technology sector, driven by strong enthusiasm for an AI-dominated future, with frequent references to a potential bubble. However, a bubble can only truly be identified once it bursts, until then, it remains a bull market.
The outlook for US equities in 2026 will therefore hinge on investor confidence and expectations, which will be shaped by economic performance, Federal Reserve monetary policy and decision-making in Washington. The base case for most analysts remains continued growth, albeit at a slower pace.
European Stocks
European equities began 2025 under a cloud of pessimism. However, controversial policy decisions in the US, particularly around tariffs, alongside Germany’s departure from its traditionally conservative fiscal stance, have redirected some investment flows towards Europe. With valuations still lower than those of their US counterparts, further upside for European assets remains possible. A consensus of analysts expects the STOXX 600 to rise by around 11% in 2026.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin ranks among the underperformers in financial markets in 2025. The cryptocurrency had been widely expected to be one of the year’s standout assets, with some forecasts pointing to prices of $200,000 and beyond. That scenario has not materialised, and Bitcoin is on course to end the year in negative territory, despite a more supportive regulatory environment and a crypto-friendly administration in Washington.
Nevertheless, most analysts continue to expect gains in 2026, underpinned by increasing regulatory clarity, a return to lower interest rates and rising institutional adoption.
Gold
Gold is set to close 2025 with gains exceeding 60%. The rally has been fuelled by strong safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, unconventional policy decisions in Washington, heightened economic uncertainty, and ongoing central bank purchases. The precious metal has also benefited from a weaker US dollar, with which it maintains an inverse price relationship.
Despite the exceptional gains recorded in 2025, the outlook for 2026 remains positive. Although gains may not match those seen in 2025, prices could continue to rise, supported by a bearish outlook for the US dollar and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. That said, investors should remain alert to potential headwinds, including a less dovish Federal Reserve than currently anticipated, which could strengthen the US dollar, and a potential increase in risk appetite in equity markets, which could divert flows away from the safe-haven metal.
Oil
Oil prices are on track to fall by more than 20% in 2025, driven by a global supply glut resulting from increased production by OPEC+ members and the United States, alongside a slowdown in global demand following the tariff shock. While this dynamic is likely to persist into 2026, recent forecasts from the International Energy Agency point to an increase in global demand and a slower-than-previously-expected rise in supply. If confirmed, this scenario could help limit further downside in oil prices.
Conclusion
The investment landscape for 2026 points to continued opportunities across global markets, albeit less exuberant than in 2025. U.S. equities are expected to extend gains at a slower pace, while European stocks may offer relative value amid shifting investment flows. Cryptocurrencies, after a weak 2025, are poised for a potential recovery, supported by regulatory clarity and lower interest rates. Gold remains a key hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty, while oil markets are likely to stay under pressure, with downside risks tempered by signs of improving demand and downward revisions to supply forecasts.
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