Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
● U.S. inflation continued to cool, with consumer prices up 2.7% year over year in November, down from 3.0% in September. Core inflation eased to 2.6%, below expectations, though economists warn data distortions from the shutdown may understate true price pressures.
● The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November in the U.S., the highest in more than four years. Payrolls increased by 64,000 in November after a revised loss of 105,000 jobs in October, raising questions about underlying labor-market strength.
● U.S. retail sales were flat in October after a 0.1% rise in September, suggesting slower consumer spending as households push back against higher prices by trading down to cheaper brands and smaller package sizes.
● Annual inflation fell to 3.2% in November from 3.6% in October in the U.K., the lowest level since March.
● In the U.K., the unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in the three months to October, while private-sector wage growth slowed to 3.9% from 4.2%.
● The Bank of England cut its key rate to 3.75% from 4.0, resuming its easing cycle after a pause. The vote was tight, with four of nine policymakers preferring no change, and the bank signaled rates are nearing their low.
● Business activity outperformed the eurozone, with faster growth in both manufacturing and services.
● Eurozone business activity slowed in December, with the composite PMI falling to 51.9 from 52.8. Manufacturing weakened in Germany and services stalled in France, while inflation pressures picked up.
● The ECB kept its deposit rate unchanged at 2%. President Christine Lagarde said policymakers remain comfortable with the current stance, and markets expect rates to stay at this level through next year.
● German business confidence fell unexpectedly in December, with companies more pessimistic about the first half of 2026. Sentiment weakened across manufacturing, services, and trade, while construction remained depressed.
● German consumer sentiment dropped to a 21-month low as households increased savings and reduced spending plans.
● Sweden’s central bank held its policy rate at 1.75% and reiterated that the next move is likely a hike, but not soon.
● Norway’s central bank kept its key rate at 4% and reaffirmed plans for gradual easing over coming years.
● Swiss watch exports fell 7.3% last month, driven by a drop of more than 50% in shipments to the U.S. Year-to-date exports are down 2.2%, with tariffs still weighing on demand.
● Inflation remained contained in Canada, with headline CPI rising 2.2% year over year in November. Core inflation slowed to 2.8%, its weakest pace since January.
● The Bank of Canada said inflation pressures appear manageable, though tariffs of up to 50% from the U.S. continue to weigh on domestic manufacturing.
● Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75% from 0.5%, the highest level in 30 years, as inflation remains sticky. Higher rates could reduce the appeal of yen-funded carry trades and increase market volatility.
● Japan’s exports rose 6.1% year over year in November, the third straight monthly gain. Shipments to the U.S. increased 8.8%, led by pharmaceuticals and fuels. Core machinery orders jumped 7% in October, signaling stronger corporate investment.
● Taiwan’s central bank held rates steady at 2%, remaining one of the few major central banks not to ease policy this year.
● New Zealand’s economy grew 1.1% in the third quarter, beating expectations. The central bank cut rates to 2.25% last month, bringing total easing since mid-2024 to 325 basis points. Manufacturing and business services led the rebound.
● Indonesia’s central bank kept its policy rate at 4.75% to support the rupiah. It forecasts growth of 4.7%–5.5% in 2025 and expects inflation to remain within target next year.
● Thailand’s central bank cut its policy rate to 1.25% from 1.50% as growth stagnates and economic risks increase.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The NZD/USD is down more than 1.05%.
● The AUD/HKD is down more than 1.30%.
● The USD/BRL is up more than 2.15%.
● The GBP/NZD is up more than 1.05%.
● The CHF/NZD is up more than 1.04%.
● The USD/HUF is up more than 1.55%.
Commodities
● Silver prices reached new highs above $65.
● Orange Juice prices are up more than 10%.
● Robusta Coffee prices are down more than 17%.
● Natural Gas prices are down more than 5% after being down more than 20% last week.
● Platinum prices are up more than 10%.
Indices
● The VIX index is up more than 8.70%.
● The FTSE MIB index is up more than 1.65%.
● The FTSE 100 index is up more than 1.40%.
● The Nikkei 225 is down more than 1.90%.
● The Nasdaq Composite is down more than 2.10%.
Shares
Tops
● Lulumon Athletica: +17.26%
● Brava Energia: +14.56%
● Norvegian Cruise Line: +13.01%
● Chipotle Mexican Grill: +10.45%
● Zalando: +9.86%
Flops
● Direcional Engenharia: -21.99%
● Broadcom: -18.51%
● ARM Holdings: -17.74%
● Generac Holdings: -17.28%
● Super Micro Computer: -14.00%
● Paramount Skydance: -12.15%
● Strategy: -11.99%
● Dell Technologies: -11.44%
● Cosan: -11.41%
● Marathon Petroleum: -10.93%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 22 December
● 07:00 AM - UK Current Account (Q3)
○ Previous: £-28.9B
○ Forecast: £ -18.8B
● 06:00 PM - American Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)
○ Previous: -0.12
○ Forecast: -0.4
Tuesday 23 December
● 12:30 AM - Australian RBA Meeting Minutes
● 01:30 PM - American Durable Goods Orders MoM (October)
○ Previous: 0.5%
○ Forecast: -0.3%
● 01:30 PM - American GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q3)
○ Previous: 3.8%
○ Forecast: 3.2%
Wednesday 24 December
● 05:00 AM - Japanese Coincident Index Final (October)
○ Previous: 114.16
○ Forecast: 115.4
● 05:00 AM - Japanese Leading Economic Index Final (October)
○ Previous: 108.2
○ Forecast: 110
● 04:00 PM - Canadian Budget Balance (October)
○ Previous: C$-5.02B
○ Forecast: C$-3.52B
Thursday 25 December
● 05:00 AM - Japanese Housing Starts YoY (November)
○ Previous: 3.2%
○ Forecast: 2.5%
● 11:30 PM - Japanese Unemployment Rate (November)
○ Previous: 2.6%
○ Forecast: 2.6%
● 11:50 PM - Japanese Industrial Production MoM Prel (November)
○ Previous: 1.5%
○ Forecast: 0.8%
● 11:50 PM - Japanese Retail Sales YoY (November)
○ Previous: 1.7%
○ Forecast: 0.9%
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 19 December 2025
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