Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
● The Federal Reserve reappointed 11 Reserve Bank presidents to new five-year terms amid political pressure from President Trump for faster rate cuts.
● The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to a 3.5%–3.75% range, with an unusually divided 9–3 vote.
● Chair Jerome Powell said U.S. job creation may be overstated by up to 60,000 jobs per month, suggesting the economy may have been losing 20,000 jobs per month since April.
● U.S. economic indicators point to slower momentum heading into 2026 as confidence among consumers and businesses softens.
● U.S. consumer sentiment in December remains near historic lows. Households expect 4.1% inflation next year, down from 4.5% in November, but holiday spending remains solid.
● U.S. private company payrolls rose by an average of 4,750 jobs per week through November 22, but ADP’s month-end report shows a 32,000 job loss in November.
● The unemployment rate in September rose to 4.4% in the U.S., despite employers adding 119,000 jobs.
● The layoff rate in the U.S. increased to 1.2% in October from 1.1% in August, while job openings rose by more than 400,000in two months.
● The quits rate in the U.S. fell to 1.8%, indicating reduced worker confidence.
● Initial jobless claims increased to 236,000 in the U.S., up from 192,000.
● The Bureau of Labor Statistics will skip releasing its delayed producer-price report and include it in the rescheduled November release on January 14.
● The U.S. trade deficit fell to $52.8 billion in September, a five-year low, supported by stronger exports of gold and consumer goods.
● U.S. exports rose to $289.3 billion, while imports increased to $342.1 billion.
● Canada posted its first trade surplus in eight months in September thanks to rebounding exports and moderating domestic demand.
● The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, maintaining its outlook for modest growth despite signs of improving economic momentum.
● Mexico approved tariffs up to 50% on imports from China and other Asian countries without trade agreements, targeting steel and autos.
● China criticized Mexico’s move as “unilateral and protectionist,” but the decision aligns with U.S. priorities and Mexico’s push to strengthen domestic industry ahead of the USMCA review.
● The Bank of Mexico lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.3% from 0.6% following a Q3 contraction.
● Brazil’s central bank kept its benchmark rate at 15% for the fourth straight meeting, citing persistent inflation risks.
● Christine Lagarde signaled the ECB may raise its eurozone growth forecasts at next week’s meeting.
● U.K. fiscal measures introduced in the latest budget could reduce inflation by 0.4–0.5 percentage points from Q2 2026.
● The Bank of England’s deputy governor favors a gradual approach to rate cuts as inflation remains high at 3.6%.
● The U.K. housing market remains weak post-budget, with soft buyer demand, low sales, and subdued new listings expected through winter.
● German exports rose 0.1% in October, beating expectations, supported by EU demand. Exports to the U.S. fell 7.8% in October due to the new 15% tariff cap.
● Germany’s trade surplus reached €16.9 billion, helped by a 1.2% drop in imports.
● Switzerland’s central bank held rates at 0%, signalling readiness to cut below zero if deflation persists.
● Global trade is expected to reach $35 trillion this year, up 7% from 2024 despite tariffs.
● Around 72% of global goods trade still occurs under most-favored-nation terms, limiting the impact of recent protectionism.
● China’s global trade surplus hit a record $1 trillion in the first eleven months of 2025.
● Japan’s central bank signaled that inflation is unlikely to accelerate dangerously, supporting a gradual path for future rate hikes.
● The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 3.60%, where it has been since August, with some market participants seeing a possible hike next year.
● Inflation risks in Australia remain tilted upward as private demand improves and capacity utilization reaches an 18-month high.
● The Philippines cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 4.50%, its fifth straight reduction and totaling 200 bps since August 2024.
● Turkey cut its benchmark rate to 38% from 39.5%, despite ongoing inflation risks.
● China was warned by the IMF that its manufacturing-heavy growth model is increasing global trade tensions.
● The IMF expects China’s GDP growth to slow to 4.5% in 2026, from around 5% this year.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The USD/RUB is up more than 5.65%.
● The USD/BRL is up more than 1.75%.
● The CAD/JPY is up more than 1.70%.
● The CHF/JPY is up more than 1.45%.
● The USD/CAD is down more than 1.30%.
● The JPY/AUD is down more than 1.20%.
● The CAD/JPY is up more than 1.70%.
Commodities
● Copper prices are up for the 5th consecutive week.
● Cocoa prices are up more than 10%
● Silver prices are up more than 9%.
● Natural Gas prices are down more than 21%.
● Oats prices are down more than 5%.
Indices
● The DAX 40 index is up more than 1.90%.
● The Dow Jones index is up more than 1.70% and hit a record high.
● The VIX index is down more than 8.50%.
● The BRA50 index is down more than 1.55%.
Shares
Tops
● Sandisk: +25.63%
● Warner Bros. Discovery: +22.04%
● Western Digital: +20.84%
● Seagate Technology: +19.00%
● Moderna: +17.58%
● GE Vernova: +16.40%
● Corning: +15.43%
● Dollar General: +14.63%
● Southwest Airlines: +14.28%
● WPP: +13.66%
● Dollar Tree: +13.27%
● Micron Technology: +12.24%
● Capgemini: +10.72%
Flops
● C&A Modas: -21.19%
● Magazine Luiza: -15.37%
● Vamos Locacao de Caminhoes: -14.29%
● Sendas Distribuidora: -14.27%
● Azzas: -13.35%
● AutoZone: -10.10%
● Marvell Technology: - 10.03%
● EssilorLuxottica: -9.21%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 15 December
● 02:00 AM - Chinese Industrial Production YoY (November)
○ Previous: 4.9%
○ Forecast: 5.4%
● 02:00 AM - Chinese Retail Sales YoY (November)
○ Previous: 2.9%
○ Forecast: 2.9%
● 01:30 PM - Canadian Inflation Rate YoY (November)
○ Previous: 2.2%
○ Forecast: 2.3%
● 10:00 PM - Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 51.6
○ Forecast: 51.8
● 10:00 PM - Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 52.8
○ Forecast: 53
● 10:00 PM - Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 52.6
○ Forecast: 52.3
● 11:30 PM - Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (December)
○ Previous: 12.8%
○ Forecast: 0.2%
Tuesday 16 December
● 12:30 PM - Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 48.7
○ Forecast: 49.5
● 12:30 PM - Japanese S&P Global Services PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 53.2
○ Forecast: 51.6
● 12:30 PM - Japanese S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 52.0
○ Forecast: 51.9
● 07:00 AM - UK Unemployment Rate (October)
○ Previous: 5%
○ Forecast: 5.1%
● 08:15 AM - French HCOB Composite PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 50.4
○ Forecast: 50.6
● 08:15 AM - French HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 47.8
○ Forecast: 48.9
● 08:15 AM - French HCOB Services PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 51.4
○ Forecast: 51.5
● 08:30 AM - German HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 48.2
○ Forecast: 48.9
● 08:30 AM - German HCOB Composite PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 52.4
○ Forecast: 52.9
● 08:30 AM - German HCOB Services PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 53.1
○ Forecast: 52.5
● 09:30 AM - UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 50.2
○ Forecast: 51.2
● 09:30 AM - UK S&P Global Services PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 51.3
○ Forecast: 52
● 09:30 AM - UK S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 51.2
○ Forecast: 51.9
● 10:00 AM - German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)
○ Forecast: 38.5
○ Forecast: 36
● 01:30 PM - American Non Farm Payrolls (October)
○ Previous: 119K
○ Forecast: 55.0K
● 01:30 PM - American Non Farm Payrolls (November)
○ Forecast: 10.0K
● 01:30 PM - American Retail Sales MoM (October)
○ Previous: 0.2%
○ Forecast: 0.2%
● 01:30 PM - American Unemployment Rate (November)
○ Previous: 4.4%
○ Forecast: 4.4%
● 02:45 PM - American S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 54.2
○ Forecast: 53.2
● 02:45 PM - American S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 52.2
○ Forecast: 52
● 02:45 PM - American S&P Global Services PMI Flash (December)
○ Previous: 54.1
○ Forecast: 53
● 11:50 PM - Japanese Balance of Trade (November)
○ Previous: ¥-231.8B
○ Forecast: ¥-130.0B
● 11:50 PM - American Building Permits Prel (September)
○ Previous: 1.33M
○ Forecast: 1.34M
● 11:50 PM - American Housing Starts (September)
○ Previous: 1.307M
○ Forecast: 1.32M
Wednesday 17 December
● 07:00 AM - UK Inflation Rate YoY (November)
○ Previous: 3.6%
○ Forecast: 3.4%
● 09:00 PM - German Ifo Business Climate (December)
○ Previous: 88.1
○ Forecast: 88.5
Thursday 18 December
● 12:00 PM - UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 4%
○ Forecast: 3.75%
● 01:30 PM - American Core Inflation Rate YoY (November)
○ Forecast: 3.0%
● 01:30 PM - American Inflation Rate YoY (November)
○ Forecast: 3.0%
● 11:30 PM - Japanese Inflation Rate YoY (November)
○ Forecast: 3%
○ Forecast: 2.9%
Friday 19 December
● 03:00 AM - Japanese BoJ Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 0.5%
○ Forecast: 0.75%
● 07:00 AM - German GfK Consumer Confidence (January)
○ Previous: -23.2
○ Forecast: -23
● 07:00 AM - UK Retail Sales MoM (November)
○ Previous: -1.1%
○ Forecast: 0.4%
● 03:00 PM - American Existing Home Sales (November)
○ Previous: 4.1M
○ Forecast: 3.9M
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Wednesday 17 December
● Micron Technology
● General Mills
Thursday 18 December
● Accenture
● Carmax
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 12 December 2025
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Forecasts are not guarantees. Rates may change. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions may vary. Platforms’ tools do not guarantee success.