Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
- Deflation is deepening in China, with consumer prices falling for the fourth consecutive month in May (down 0.1% year-on-year). This negative trend, exacerbated by US tariffs and a shift towards the second-hand market by luxury consumers, began in February with a 0.7% drop.
- China's producer prices also experienced a significant decline, falling 3.3% year-on-year in May, their steepest drop since July 2023. Wholesale prices have been in deflation since October 2022.
- China's exports to the U.S. plunged 35% year-on-year in May, marking their steepest decline since February 2020 and suggesting ongoing trade war effects despite recent agreements.
- Overall Chinese exports grew by 4.8% in May, a weaker performance than anticipated.
- Chinese imports concurrently fell by 3.4%, indicating sluggish domestic demand.
- Europeans are increasingly pessimistic about their national economies, as reported by the Boston Consulting Group.
- British consumers cut back on non-essential spending last month, according to the British Retail Consortium.
- UK job vacancies continued their downward trend, falling 7.9% to 736,000 between March and May, marking the 35th consecutive decline.
- Britain's unemployment rate saw a slight increase, rising to 4.6% in the three months to April from 4.5% in the previous period.
- Canada plans to increase military spending to appease the U.S. and meet NATO commitments.
- Canada has historically fallen short of the alliance's 2% defense spending target.
- In 2024, Canada spent 1.37% of its GDP on defense, ranking it above only Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, and Spain among NATO members.
- The World Bank has lowered its global economic growth projection for 2025 to 2.3%, down from its previous estimate of 2.7%.
- This projected global growth rate would represent "the slowest rate of global growth since 2008, aside from outright global recessions, according to the World Bank.
- US headline CPI rose by 0.1% in May. Over the past year, it increased by 2.4%.
- After growing by 0.2% in March 2025, the UK's monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have experienced a 0.3% decline in April.
- U.S. producer price inflation stayed low across all sectors in May (+0.1%), indicating that tariffs haven't yet led to increased costs for consumers and businesses.
- Crude oil futures surged up to 13% Thursday evening following Israeli airstrikes on Iran, reportedly conducted without U.S. support.
- It’s their largest single-day gain in around 5 years.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
- The Dollar Index is trading around its lowest level since February 2022.
- The CHF/JPY is trading at its highest level since July 2024.
- The EUR/USD is trading at its highest level since November 2021.
- The EUR/JPY is up for the 3rd week in a row.
Commodities
- Light Crude and Brent futures are up more than 13% following conflicts in the Middle East between Isrel and Iran.
- Gold prices are up more than 3.5%.
- Natural gas prices are down more than 6%.
- Oats prices are up for the 4th consecutive week in a volatile environement.
- Platinum prices are up more than 8%, after +11.65% the previous week.
Indices
- The VIX index is up more than 11%.
- The German DAX40 index is down almost 4%.
- The UK100 is trading at its highest level above 8,850 points.
- The Euro50 is losing almost 3%.
- The Brazilan index Bra50 is down after 3 weeks up.
Shares
Tops
Flops
- lululemo Athletica: -26.28%
- The J.M Smuckler Company: -12.70%
- Pacific Gas & Electric: -10.62%
This Week’s News to Follow
Monday 16 June
- 02:00 AM - Chinese Industrial Production YoY (May)
- Previous: 6.1%
- Forecast: 6%
- 03:00 AM - Chinese Retail Sales YoY (May)
- Previous: 5.1%
- Forecast: 4.9%
Tuesday 17 June
- 03:00 AM - Japanese BoJ Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 0.5%
- Forecast: 0.5%
- 09:00 AM - German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)
- Previous: -1
- Forecast: -3
- 12:30 PM - American Retail Sales MoM (May)
- Previous: 0.1%
- Forecast: 0.1%
- 11:50 PM - Japanese Balance of Trade (May)
- Previous: ¥-115.8B
- Forecast: ¥-170.0B
Wednesday 18 June
- 06:00 AM - UK Inflation Rate YoY (May)
- Previous: 3.5%
- Forecast: 3.6%
- 12:30 PM - American Building Permits Prel (May)
- Previous: 1.422M
- Forecast: 1.4M
- 12:30 PM - American Housing Starts (May)
- Previous: 1.361M
- Forecast: 1.36M
- 06:00 PM - American Fed Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 4.5%
- Forecast: 4.5%
- 06:00 PM - American FOMC Economic Projections
- 06:30 PM - American Fed Press Conference
Thursday 19 June
- 11:00 AM - UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 4.25%
- Forecast: 4.25%
- 11:30 PM - Japanese Inflation Rate YoY (May)
- Previous: 3.6%
- Forecast: 3.6%
Friday 20 June
- 06:00 AM - UK Retail Sales MoM (May)
- Previous: 1.2%
- Forecast: -1.0%
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Wednesday 18 June
- Aurora Cannabis
Thursday 19 June
- Carmax
Friday 20 June
- Accenture
Source: Trading Economics, TradingView, and ActivTrades’ Data as of June 13 2025
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