On Monday 26th: Japanese Inflation and US New Homes Sales are due.
On Tuesday 27th: GfK Consumer Confidence for Germany is due, along with US Durable Goods sales.
On Wednesday 28th: The RBNZ meets on Monetary Policy, US GDP is due, and Japan reports its Retail Sales figures.
On Thursday 29th: French GDP will be published, along with Spanish, Swiss and German Inflation, Canadian GDP figures, and US Core PCE Prices, Personal Spending, Personal Income and and Pending Home Sales.
On Friday 1st: China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI, Japan’s Consumer Confidence Index, Euro Inflation figures, Italian Inflation and GDP numbers, and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI are all due.
Weekly outlook
As the earnings season nears its end, there’s a little less hype this week regarding company reports. Nevertheless, there remains a significant amount of economic activity for investors and traders to monitor instead.
The US dominates the output this week, as a whole host of data is due to be dropped that will be closely monitored by the Federal Reserve for its March 20th meeting. According to minutes from the Fed’s January meeting of the FOMC, which were made public last week, officials suggested that they were still cautiously optimistic about inflation and that they were not in a rush to lower interest rates.
Monday 26th of February
Japan is due to release its inflation data today from 11:30 PM GMT. The country’s annual headline inflation rate dropped from 2.8% in November 2022 to 2.6% in December 2023, marking the lowest level since July 2022. This was due to the lowest increase in food prices in 14 months. Expectations are for this to further reduce to around 2.4%, while the core rate is slated to drop to around 1.8% from 2.3%.
Following a revised-downward 9% decline in November and above predictions of 645 thousand, sales of newly-built single-family homes in the US surged 8% month over month in December 2023, reaching a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 664 thousand. In January, expectations for an increase to around 675 thousand is expected when the new report is released at 3:00 PM GMT.
Tuesday 27th of February
GfK Consumer Confidence for Germany is due today at 7:00 AM GMT. As we entered February 2024, the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany unexpectedly dropped to -29.7 from a corrected -25.4 in January. The results for March are forecast to show an improvement to around -27.
December 2023 new orders for US-made durable goods were flat, following a 5.5% increase in November that fell short of market estimates of a 1.1% increase. A decline to around -4.5% is expected month over month for January.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Lowe’s
● Dell Tech
● Bouygues
● Lagardère
● Puma
Wednesday 28th of February
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet on Monetary Policy today with the Decision Statement released at 1:00 AM GMT and Press Conference at 2:00 AM GMT. At its November meeting, the RBNZ maintained its official cash rate at 5.5%, continuing the rate pause for a fourth consecutive gathering and in line with market expectations. A further pause is forecast for this first meeting of 2024.
According to the advance estimate, the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.3% in Q4, 2023, substantially faster than estimates of a 2% increase and following a 4.9% rate in Q3. The figures are expected to be confirmed today at 1:30 PM GMT.
Japan's retail sales increased 2.1% year over year in December 2023, below market expectations of 4.7% growth and declining from a 5.4% gain in November. Nevertheless, retail sales increased for the 22nd straight month as demand continued to rebound from the pandemic-induced downturn. A minor increase to around 2.3% is expected for January when the results are published at 11:50 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Salesforce
● Reckitt Benckiser
● Baidu
● Dollar Tree
● Universal Music Group
● Hewlett Packard
● Nexity
● Derichebourg
Thursday 29th of February
France releases its Inflation figures and GDP data today at 7:45 AM GMT. The country’s annual inflation rate was confirmed at 3.1% in January, down from 3.7% the month before, and was the lowest reading since January 2022. Expectations are for a decline to around 2.9% from the preliminary report. France's GDP grew by 0.7% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2023 in the report that is expected to be confirmed today.
After coming in at 3.1% in December, Spain's consumer price inflation hit a three-month high of 3.4% year over year in January. A slight drop to around 3.2% is expected for this preliminary report due at 8:00 AM GMT.
Swiss Inflation will be published at 8:00 AM GMT today. In the third quarter of 2023, the Swiss economy grew by 0.3% year over year, which was lower than the 0.5% predicted by market analysts. Forecasts are for annualized growth of 0.4% for Q4.
Due to a significant slowdown in goods inflation, German consumer price inflation was reported to have dropped to 2.9% year over year in January 2024, which was the lowest level since June 2021. The preliminary report for February, due at 1:00 PM GMT, is expected to show a further decline to around 2.8%.
Canada’s GDP Growth Rate is due at 1:30 PM GMT. In contrast to a revised 0.3% gain in the preceding quarter, the Canadian economy shrank by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2023, its first decline since the second quarter of 2021. The outcome demonstrated that the Bank of Canada's higher interest rates are having a negative impact on the Canadian economy, reversing earlier in the year's strong growth. Quarter over quarter contraction is expected of around -0.2% for Q4 2024.
December 2023 saw a 0.2% increase in Core PCE prices in the US, which do not include food and energy. This gain was in line with market expectations and was a little improvement from the 0.1% increase in November. When the new data comes out at 1:30 PM GMT, growth of around 0.4% month over month is expected for January.
Also from the US today comes the Personal Income and Personal Spending figures measured month over month at 1:30 PM GMT. In December 2023, US personal income grew by 0.3%, matching market expectations and coming off a 0.4% gain in November due to increases in compensation and personal interest income. A 0.5% gain is expected for January. Meanwhile, December 2023 saw a 0.7% increase in personal spending in the US after an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in November, and this is expected to grow again to around 0.3% for January.
December 2023 Pending Home Sales in the US were up 1.3% from December the previous year. This was the first increase since May of 2021. A further gain to around 2% is expected from the January report due at 3:00 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Saint-Gobain
● Veolia Environnement
● Air France KLM
● Valeo
● Bonduelle
● Atos
● Beiersdorf
Friday 1st of March
January 2024's official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China sat at 49.2, which was up from December's 6-month low of 49.0 and in line with market expectations. Though it was an improvement, factory activity shrank for the fourth consecutive month as Beijing battled deflationary pressure, poor demand, and the property sector's chronic weakness to boost economic recovery. When the new data is due at 1:30 AM GMT, expectations are for a minor increase to around 49.3 for February.
In January of 2024, the Japanese consumer confidence index jumped to 38 from 37.2 in December 2023. The reading reached a new peak since December 2021, as household sentiment improved across the board. The latest data for February is due at 5:00 AM GMT.
Euro Area inflation fell to 2.8% year-on-year in January 2024 from 2.9% the previous month, which was in line with market forecasts. The core rate, which does not include energy and food price fluctuations, has been steadily easing and reached 3.3%, which is higher than the 3.2% expected but still lower than it has been since March 2022. The new figures are due to be published at 10:00 AM GMT.
Italian Inflation and GDP figures are due today at 10:00 AM GMT. January 2024 annual inflation in Italy was 0.8%, up from 0.6% in December, but still below market predictions of 1.1%. Meanwhile, the Italian economy expanded by 3.7% in 2022, which was a significant decrease from the upwardly revised 7% increase in the year before but continued the country's recovery from the pandemic-related downturn in 2020. 0.8% growth is expected for the full year 2023 figure.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is due today at 3:00 PM GMT. Following a reading of 47.1 in December and significantly surpassing predictions of 47, the PMI increased to 49.1 in January 2024, marking the highest reading since October 2022. Expectations are for the new figure to remain at 49.1 for February.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Vallourec
● Aegon
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.