On Monday 4th: Swiss Inflation figures are due.
On Tuesday 5th: Services PMIs will be released from Japan, China, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the EU, the UK and the US.
On Wednesday 6th: Australian GDP data is due, along with the German Trade Balance, the ADP Employment Change, the BoC Monetary Policy Meeting, the Ivey PMI, and US JOLTs Job Openings.
On Thursday 7th: The Australian, Chinese, Canadian, and US Trade Balances are due today, and the ECB will meet on Monetary Policy.
On Friday 8th: Canadian Employment figures are due, as well as the US Employment figures including Non Farm Payrolls.
Weekly outlook
There's a big roster coming up in economic news this week. Employment numbers will show how monetary policy is impacting the labour markets in Canada and the US. The latest Canadian data indicates that the market has not been as constrained, but the US Non Farms have been resisting the Federal Reserve's attempts to curb economic activity in recent months. How will it turn out this week?
Also on the cards this week, the European Central Bank will decide what to do with Interest Rates again this week. The ECB has maintained record-high interest rates since September. However, due to inflation decreasing rapidly, officials are discussing whether to begin reversing some of the 10 rate increases that raised the deposit rate from negative levels to 4% in a little over a year. Some members of the Governing Council have suggested that the ECB should be prepared to potentially reduce borrowing rates next month if the evidence supports it. Stay tuned!
Monday 4th of March
Switzerland will publish its inflation figures today at 7:30 AM GMT. In January, the Swiss annual inflation rate decreased to 1.3% from the previous month's 1.7%, and was the lowest reading since October 2021. The rate may fall to around 1.1% for February according to forecasts.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Henkel
● Rover
Tuesday 5th of March
A range of Services PMIs are due across the day today from countries such as Japan, China, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the EU, the UK and the US. The services industry has been making a comeback recently, with many of the forecasts and previous month’s results heading back into expansion territory, or above the level of 50.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Target
● Bayer
● NIO
● Thales Group
Wednesday 6th of March
Australia will report its GDP data today at 12:30 AM GMT. The economy grew by 0.2% quarter over quarter in the third quarter of 2023, falling short of market expectations and slowing down from the 0.4% growth in the second quarter. A similar amount of growth is expected again for the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, year over year growth of around 1.5% is expected, which would be down from the previous 2.1%.
Germany's trade surplus rose to EUR 22.2 billion in December 2023, above market expectations of EUR 18.8 billion and up from an adjusted EUR 20.8 billion in the prior month. The trade surplus reached its highest level since November 2017 due to a smaller decrease in exports compared to imports. The surplus may increase again to around 22.6 billion at 7:00 AM GMT today according to forecasts.
The ADP Employment Change is due today at 1:15 PM GMT. In January, private companies in the US added 107,000 jobs to their payrolls, which was lower than the revised 158,000 in December and the anticipated 145,000. Around 90,000 jobs are expected to be added for February.
The Bank of Canada meets on Monetary Policy this week, with the Decision Statement released at 2:45 PM GMT and the Press Conference at 3:30 PM GMT. In January, the BoC maintained its overnight rate at 5% for the fourth consecutive time, as anticipated, keeping benchmark borrowing rates at a 22-year high. The Governing Council expressed ongoing concerns about inflation risks, especially on underlying price increases, after an unexpected increase in preferred core inflation measures in December. Rates are expected to again remain on hold this month.
In January, the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index in Canada increased to 56.5, above market expectations of 55 and beating the December 2023 figure of 56.3. Canadian economic activity will have expanded for the seventh straight month in February, if the forecast of 56 is met today at 3:00 PM GMT.
US Jolts Job Openings are due today at 3:00 PM GMT. In December, job opportunities increased by 101,000 to reach 9.026 million, surpassing the market expectation of 8.75 million and marking the highest level in three months. A dip to around 8.9 million is expected for January.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Deutsche Post
● Dassault Aviation
Thursday 7th of March
Australia's goods trade surplus decreased to AUD 10.96 billion in December 2023 from an adjusted AUD 11.76 billion in the prior month, falling short of market expectations due to slower export growth relative to imports. The new figures for January are due today at 12:30 AM GMT.
China's trade surplus rose to USD 75.34 billion in December 2023, up from USD 70.65 billion in the same month the previous year, above market expectations of USD 74.75 billion. The latest figures for January will be released today at 3:00 AM GMT.
The European Central Bank will meet to discuss the direction of Monetary Policy this week, with the Decision Statement due at 1:15 PM GMT, and the Press Conference at 1:45 PM GMT. ECB policymakers decided it was too early to consider reducing interest rates at the last meeting, even if there were signs of decreasing inflationary pressures in the Eurozone, instead they opted to maintain the Deposit Facility Rate at 4% and the headline Interest Rate at 4.5%. Forecast suggests another hold on rates is expected this month.
In December, Canada's Trade Deficit was CAD 0.3 billion, which was lower than the CAD 1.1 billion recorded in November and below market expectations. The latest numbers for January will be published today at 1:30 PM GMT.
The US Trade Deficit remained relatively unchanged at $62.2 billion in December 2023, from an earlier revised $61.9 billion. When the latest data is released at 1:30 PM GMT, expectations are for this figure to lower to around $61.7 billion.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Broadcom
● Oracle
● Continental
● Vivendi
● JC Decaux
● Merck
● Lufthansa
Friday 8th of March
Canadian Employment figures are due today at 1:30 PM GMT. After reaching a 22-month high of 5.8% in the previous month, the Unemployment Rate fell to 5.7% in January, the first monthly reduction in almost a year. This may get bumped back up to around 5.9% for February according to forecasts.
US Employment data is also due today from 1:30 PM GMT. In January, according to Non Farm Payrolls, the US economy created 353K jobs, far above market estimates of 180K and in contrast to an upwardly revised 333K jobs in December. It was the largest increase in employment in a year, indicating that there was still a tight job market. The latest forecast is for a further addition of around 188K jobs for February. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7% again this month.
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