On Monday 19th: Presidents Day holiday in the US and Family Day holiday in Canada.
On Tuesday 20th: The RBA releases its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Canada publishes its Inflation figures, and Japan puts out its Trade Balance.
On Wednesday 21st: The Federal Reserve publishes its Monetary Policy Minutes, and Australian Services and Manufacturing PMIs are due for release.
On Thursday 22nd: Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due from Japan, France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and the US, EU Inflation figures are due, and US Existing Home Sales are due.
On Friday 23rd: German GDP figures are due, along with the German IFO Business Climate Index.
Weekly outlook
It’ll be a slow start to the week with the US and Canada on holiday on Monday, however there is still a fair bit going on for investors and traders. Keep an eye out for Flash Services and Manufacturing PMIs, for a look at how major economies are handling the slowdown in demand resulting from high borrowing rates and prices.
Some popular companies are still yet to report their earnings too, including big box stores, Walmart and Home Depot, however, results from one of the hottest companies in AI, Nvidia, is also due this week. The builder of graphics chips for AI and gaming is anticipated to show quarterly profits of around $4.51 per share, which is a change of +412.5% year over year. Preliminary estimates also put quarterly sales at $20.18 billion, up 233.5% from the same period last year. Don't miss this release!
Monday 19th of February
Presidents Day holiday in the US and Family Day holiday in Canada.
Major Earnings Release:
● Forvia
● Icade
Tuesday 20th of February
The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its Monetary Policy Minutes at 12:30 AM GMT today. The RBA left its cash rate at 4.35% at its first meeting in 2024, as largely predicted. The decision followed two years of rate hikes by the central bank totaling 425 basis points, and many believe the current rate is now at the peak of the tightening cycle.
Canada is due to report its Inflation figures today at 1:30 PM GMT. Consistent with market estimates, the country’s annual inflation rate increased to 3.4% in December 2023 from 3.1% the previous month. The outcome tracks with the Bank of Canada's prediction that headline inflation would stay persistently high, hovering around 3.5% until mid-2024. It also supports officials' assertions that another rate rise could be required to tackle unsustainable price increases. A slight fall to 3.2% is expected for January.
Japan's trade balance surpassed market expectations of a JPY 122.1 billion deficit to unexpectedly flip to a surplus of JPY 62.10 billion in December 2023 from a deficit of JPY 1,497.93 billion in the same month the previous year. The new data will be made available at 11:50 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Walmart
● Home Depot
● Palo Alto Network
● Air Liquide
● Carrefour
Wednesday 21st of February
The Federal Reserve releases its minutes from its most recent Monetary Policy Meeting today at 7:00 PM GMT. As anticipated, the FOMC held the Fed funds rate steady at a 23-year high of 5.25%–5.5% for the fourth consecutive meeting in January. The committee suggested that they do not believe rates should be lowered until they have more assurance that inflation is steadily approaching 2%.
Australian Services and Manufacturing PMIs are due from 10:00 PM GMT. From a preliminary score of 50.3, the Judo Bank Australia Manufacturing PMI was revised down in January, to 50.1. It ended the eleventh month of contraction in the manufacturing sector, helped by a slowdown in the loss of new orders, output, and employment. After a preliminary reading of 47.9, the Judo Bank Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index was revised considerably higher to 49.1 in January, from 47.1 in December. Both indexes are expected to climb further for February, to around 50.9 and 50.2 respectively.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Nvidia
● Rio Tinto
● HSBC
● Ipsos
● Glencore
● BAE Systems
Thursday 22nd of February
A host of Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due for release across the day today from countries such as Japan, France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and the US. While many of the predicted results for February are for an improvement in these sectors, the majority will still be sitting below the par level of 50, which represents contraction.
According to a preliminary assessment, which is expected to be confirmed at 10:00 AM GMT today, the inflation rate in the Euro Area decreased to 2.8% year over year in January 2024 from 2.9% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the core rate, which does not include the erratic costs of food and energy, continued to decline, hitting 3.3%, its lowest point since March 2022.
US Existing Home Sales figures are due at 3:00 PM GMT today. In December 2023, sales fell 1.0% from the previous month to 3.78 million units, the lowest level since August 2010. This figure was also below the market's projected 3.82 million units, however, a slight bump for January to around 3.96 units is expected this week.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Nestlé
● Booking.com
● Mercedes Benz
● Axa
● Danone
● Engie
● Accor
● Bureau Veritas
● Groupe SEB
● Iberdrola
● Telefonica
Friday 23rd of February
According to a preliminary assessment, which is expected to be confirmed today at 7:00 AM GMT, the German economy contracted by 0.2% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2023, which was in line with market estimates and came after a revised 0.3% decline in the preceding three months. For the first time since 2020–21, the largest economy in Europe fell into a technical recession as a result of increased borrowing rates and high prices reducing demand and activity.
After declining to 85.2 in January from an earlier corrected reading of 86.3, the Ifo Business Climate index for Germany missed the market estimate of 86.7 for the second consecutive month. When the new data is due to be released at 9:00 AM GMT, the forecast is for a further decline to around 84.7.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Deutsche Telekom
● Allianz
● BASF
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