On Monday 8th: German balance of trade.
On Tuesday 9th: Japan consumer confidence.
On Wednesday 10th: Reserve Bank of New-Zealand monetary policy meeting, Bank of Canada monetary meeting, US CPI & Minutes from the Fed.
On Thursday 11th: ECB monetary policy meeting & US PPI.
On Friday 12th: UK GDP & US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.
Monday 8th of April
Germany's trade surplus surged to a record-breaking EUR 27.5 billion in January 2024, up from an upwardly revised EUR 23.3 billion in December. This impressive performance was driven by a stronger-than-anticipated increase in exports (6.3%) reaching an 11-month high of EUR 135.6 billion. Exports outpaced imports, which climbed at a moderate pace (3.6%). German trade balance is expected to slightly slow in February when the data is published at 06:00 AM GMT.
Tuesday 9th of April
Japanese consumers are feeling more and more optimistic. The consumer confidence index jumped from 38 in January to 39.1 in February 2024, reaching its highest level since December 2021. Consumers in the country are feeling more confident about their finances and future. This is reflected in their improved outlook on overall livelihood, income growth, and employment prospects. Additionally, their inclination to purchase durable goods indicates a stronger sense of financial security, a trend expected to persist into March, with the market anticipating a rise in Japanese consumer confidence to 40 when it’s released at 05:00 AM GMT.
Wednesday 10th of April
New Zealand's central bank (RBNZ) kept interest rates at a 15-year high of 5.5% during their February meeting. This marked the fifth consecutive meeting with no change. However, the RBNZ also hinted at a potential shift in policy by lowering their forecast peak for interest rates to 5.6%, down from a previous projection of 5.7%. Moreover, the RBNZ members adopted a more dovish tone. This suggests a more balanced view of inflation risks compared to earlier, and a slowdown in future rate hikes. No changes are expected at the upcoming meeting. The decision about the monetary policy will be published at 02:00 AM GMT.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept interest rates at their sky-high 22-year level of 5% during their March meeting. However, they hinted at the possibility of future cuts later in the year, based on their current economic forecasts. But there might still be some disagreement among board members about the pace of future monetary policy. Market participants, however, are expecting no change in Canadian interest rates this month at the upcoming announcement scheduled for 1:45 PM GMT.
Key US inflation data will be also released today at 12:30 PM GMT and a slowdown is expected (but not across the board). The annual core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes volatile items like food and energy, is expected to dip slightly from 3.8% to 3.7%. However, the picture isn't entirely rosy. The annual headline CPI, which includes all goods and services, is forecast to rise from 3.2% to 3.4%.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) opted to maintain interest rates at their current 23-year high (5.25% - 5.5%) during their March 2024 meeting, as anticipated by markets. This marks the fifth consecutive monetary policy meeting with no change. Policymakers reiterated their plans to cut rates 3 times this year, aligning with their forecasts from last December. The upcoming release of the FOMC minutes at 06:00 PM GMT may offer further insights into committee members' views on the current economic climate and their projections for future rate adjustments.
Thursday 11th of April
The European Central Bank (ECB) opted to hold all three of its key interest rates steady at their March 2024 meeting. This means the main refinancing operations rate remains at 4.50%, the marginal lending facility rate stays at 4.75%, and the deposit facility rate holds at 4.00%. The decision comes after ECB members observed a further decline in inflation since their January meeting. The ECB staff projections now forecast average inflation of 2.3% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. No changes are expected when the ECB’s decision is published at 12:15 PM GMT.
Another US inflation data is published today at 12:30 PM GMT. U.S. producer prices for final demand surged by 0.6% in February 2024, exceeding market expectations of a 0.3% increase. This marks the sharpest monthly rise since August 2023. The uptick was primarily driven by a 1.2% jump in goods prices, the highest in six months. This increase was fueled by a hefty 4.4% surge in energy costs and a 1.0% uptick in food prices. Services costs also saw a modest 0.3% rise.
Looking ahead, market participants expect the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) to continue its downward trend, reaching 0.3% in March from 0.6% in February. Similarly, the monthly core PPI, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, is also forecast to slow down, moving from 0.5% in February to a projected 0.3% in March.
Friday 12th of April
The British economy emerged from a technical recession in January 2024, with a modest 0.2% month-over-month expansion, which followed a 0.1% decline in December. The service sector led the way, growing by 0.2% compared to a 0.1% contraction in December. This growth was driven by areas like retail trade (excluding vehicles), healthcare, and education. Construction also saw a positive sign with a 1.1% increase. However, the outlook isn't overly positive. Industrial output dipped by 0.2%, primarily due to a decline in water and waste management activities. Looking ahead, the GDP data for March, due for release at 6:00 AM GMT, is expected to show a slowdown, contracting by an estimated 0.3%.
Consumer confidence in the United States soared in March 2024, according to the University of Michigan's revised consumer sentiment index. The index jumped to 79.4, marking the highest level since July 2021. This upward revision from a preliminary reading of 76.5 reflects a more optimistic outlook among American consumers.
Breaking down the data, both consumer expectations (revised to 77.4 from 74.6) and assessments of current economic conditions (revised to 82.5 from 79.4) improved significantly. This suggests a sense of stability and potential growth ahead. Interestingly, inflation expectations moderated slightly. Consumers now anticipate inflation of 2.9% for the year and 2.8% over the next five years, down from earlier projections of 3% and 2.9%, respectively. Investors will closely follow the release of April's preliminary consumer sentiment data at 02:00 PM GMT, gauging any shifts in consumer confidence.
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