On Monday 1st: ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US.
On Tuesday 2nd: RBA minutes, German inflation, US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
On Wednesday 3rd: Eurozone inflation, ISM Manufacturing PMI, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
On Thursday 4th: US unemployment claims, Swiss CPI.
On Friday 5th: NFP report.
Monday 1st of April
In a setback for the manufacturing sector, the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US dropped to 47.8 in February 2024, down from 49.1 a month earlier and missing market forecasts of 49.5. This marks the 16th straight month of decline in manufacturing activity, dashing hopes of a revival. Analysts predict some improvement, with a rise to 48 expected in March 2024 when the data is released at 2:00 PM (but this would still be below the growth threshold of 50).
Tuesday 2nd of April
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held off raising interest rates in March, keeping the cash rate at 4.35% and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25%. This decision comes as inflation remains high and uncertain despite slowly decreasing. The RBA will release more details about their decision in the minutes about the March 20th meeting, which will be published today at 1:30 AM.
German inflation slowed further in February 2024, reaching a two-and-a-half year low of 2.5% year-on-year. This brings it closer to the European Central Bank's target of 2.0% for the region. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) also held steady at 3.4% last month, its lowest point since July 2022. Prices rose slightly on a monthly basis (0.4%), but this was expected by analysts and represents an increase compared to January’s monthly inflation of 0.2%.
What's driving the slowdown? Food prices are the main reason for the lower inflation. Food inflation dipped significantly (0.9% in February compared to 3.8% in January) thanks to cheaper fresh vegetables (-10.6%) and dairy products (-5.1%). Energy prices continued to decline (-2.4% in February compared to -2.8% in January). Analysts predict the German preliminary year-on-year inflation rate to fall further to 2.4% in March (data to be released at noon).
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for February 2024 will be released today at 2:00 PM. January's data showed a decrease of 26,000 job openings compared to the previous month, bringing the total down to 8.86 million. This is the lowest level in three months and fell short of analyst expectations of 8.9 million openings. Analysts now predict JOLTS to dip further to 8.84 million in February.
Wednesday 3rd of April
Eurozone inflation eased further in February 2024, reaching a three-month low of 2.6% year-on-year. However, it remains above the European Central Bank's target of 2%. The decline was driven by a drop in energy prices (down 3.7%) and a slower pace of increase for food, alcohol, tobacco, and non-energy industrial goods. Services inflation, however, remained steady at 4.0%. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, also held steady at 3.1% - its lowest level since March 2022.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose slightly (0.6%) in February, reversing a January dip of 0.4%. Analysts predict inflation to fall further to 2.5% in March 2024, with the official data due for release at 9:00 AM.
Following the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday, the focus today shifts to the ISM Services PMI, due out at 2:00 PM. Analysts forecast a reading of 52.7, indicating continued growth in the services sector. This comes after February's data showed a slight slowdown from January's four-month high. The February reading of 52.6 missed analyst expectations of 53. Faster supplier deliveries and a shrinking workforce contributed to this slowdown, with inventories also declining and a backlog of orders showing signs of easing.
However, there were some positive signs. Business activity, production, and new orders all increased at a faster pace, and price pressures eased. Additionally, a majority of service providers remain optimistic about business conditions, although concerns about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts persist.
The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for February came in at 140,000. There was encouraging news on wages for those switching jobs. For the first time in over a year, pay gains for job changers accelerated, rising to 7.6% from 7.2%. This marks the first increase since November 2022. However, the wage picture for those staying in their current positions wasn't as bright. Pay gains for job stayers continued to slow down, dipping to 5.1% - the lowest level since August 2021. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be released today at 1:15 PM, offering insights ahead of the NFP report on Friday.
Thursday 4th of April
Unemployment claims are requests for financial assistance from the government by people who are out of work. These claims are typically filed after someone loses their job and is actively searching for a new one. The number of new unemployment claims filed this week will be released at 1:30 PM today.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 1.5% on March 21st. This easing of monetary policy follows its success in controlling inflation over the past two and a half years. Today, at 7:30 AM, the latest Swiss inflation data will be released in the form of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI). In February, the CPI rose 0.6% compared to the previous month, with year-on-year inflation at 1.2%.
Friday 5th of April
Today, all eyes are on the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report for March, probably the biggest economic data release of the week, that will be released at 12:30 PM. Analysts predict an increase of 200,000 in employed people, following a surprisingly strong February report that showed a gain of 275,000 (more than the 195,000 expected). While the February jobs number was positive, there was a surprise up tick in the unemployment rate, which rose to 3.9%, the highest since January 2022. However, analysts expect the unemployment rate to hold steady in March.
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