On Monday 15th: Monthly US retail sales and US empire state manufacturing index.
On Tuesday 16th: China quarterly GDP, China yearly industrial production, China yearly retail sales, UK unemployment rate, German ZEW economic sentiment index, Canadian yearly inflation, US building permits, Japan balance of trade and New Zealand quarterly inflation.
On Wednesday 17th: UK annual inflation rate and European yearly rate.
On Thursday 18th: Australian unemployment rate, US weekly unemployment claims and Japan annual inflation rate.
On Friday 19th: UK monthly retail sales.
Monday 15th of April
U.S. retail sales rose by a modest 0.6% in February 2024, following a larger-than-expected downward revision of January's data to -1.1%. While this uptick is positive, it's overshadowed by the steeper decline in January, raising concerns about a potential slowdown in consumer spending.
Growth was strongest in building materials and garden equipment (2.2%), motor vehicles and parts dealers (1.6%), and electronics and appliance stores (1.5%). However, sales fell in furniture stores (-1.1%), clothing stores (-0.5%), health and personal care stores (-0.3%), and non-store retailers (-0.1%).
Looking ahead, market participants anticipate a small increase of just 0.3% for March's retail sales data, due for release at 12:30 PM GMT. This cautious forecast reflects the recent mixed signals in consumer spending.
The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index delivered a shocking surprise in March 2024, plummeting to a dismal -20.9. This marks a dramatic fall from February's -2.4 reading and falls far short of analyst predictions of -7. This steep decline indicates a significant downturn in manufacturing activity within New York State.
Weakening demand appears to be the primary culprit. Businesses are receiving far fewer new orders and existing orders are also being filled at a slower pace (in addition to the continued decrease in unfilled orders). The slowdown extends to production as well.
Inventory levels are dropping potentially due to the lowered demand, which aligns with the decline in employment and work hours. However, the cost of materials needed for manufacturing is rising at a slower pace. Unfortunately, this isn't reflected in the selling prices of finished goods, which remain unchanged according to the index.
Despite the current challenges, companies expressed some optimism, with expectations for improvement over the next six months. However, this optimism remains subdued. Market participants anticipate the index to continue its downward trend, with a forecast of -9 for April's data release scheduled for 12:30 PM GMT.
Tuesday 16th of April
China's economy showed some signs of improvement in the final quarter of 2023. The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) grew by 5.2% year-on-year (yoy), exceeding the 4.9% growth in Q3 but falling slightly short of market expectations of 5.3%.
Looking at the full year, China achieved a 5.2% growth rate, surpassing the official target of around 5.0%. This is a positive development compared to the 3.0% rise in 2022. Government support measures in Beijing and a low base of comparison from the previous year likely contributed to this improvement.
However, excluding the pandemic years, 2023 marks the slowest pace of annual growth since 1990. This highlights the ongoing challenges faced by the Chinese economy, such as the prolonged property crisis, weak consumer spending, and global economic uncertainties.
Q1 2024 GDP data is forecast to reach 5%, with release scheduled for 02:00 AM GMT. China will also release data at this time on yearly industrial production and annual retail sales for March. Both figures are projected to slow down compared to previous months, with industrial production at 5.4% (down from 7%) and retail sales at 4.5% (down from 5.5%).
The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom inched up to 3.9% between November 2023 and January 2024. This is a relatively flat rate compared to the previous quarter, although slightly higher than the 3.8% anticipated by market analysts. Looking ahead, market participants forecast a further increase to 4% for the February data, due for release at 06:00 AM GMT.
Germany's economic outlook brightened considerably in March 2024, with the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment jumping to its highest level since February 2022 (31.7). This eight-month streak of gains significantly surpassed market expectations of 20.5.
The surge in optimism is largely fueled by investor anticipation of potential interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) later this year. This positive sentiment is particularly evident in the construction industry, which is expected to benefit from lower borrowing costs.
However, it's important to note that this optimism isn't universally shared. The assessment of the current economic situation in Germany remains subdued, with the corresponding indicator inching up only slightly to -80.5.
Market participants forecast a further rise in the ZEW Index, reaching 32 when the data is released at 09:00 AM GMT.
Canada's inflation rate continued its downward trend in February 2024, reaching 2.8% - the lowest level since June 2023. This marks a further decline from 2.9% in January and defies market predictions of 3.1%. The positive data gives the Bank of Canada (BoC) more flexibility when considering monetary policy. This potentially opens the door for looser monetary measures in the latter half of 2024.
Market participants expect inflation to dip even lower in March, with a forecast of 2.7%. The data for March is scheduled for release at 12:30 PM GMT.
Building permits in the United States saw a positive sign in February 2024, increasing by 2.4%. This marks the highest level since August 2023 and reflects a slight upward revision from initial estimates. However, the good news might be short-lived. Market participants predict a decline in permits for March, forecasting a dip to 1.48 million when the data is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
New Zealand's consumer prices showed signs of moderation in the final quarter of 2023. The CPI rose by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter, a significant slowdown from the 1.8% increase recorded in Q3. However, this trend might not continue. Market analysts are forecasting a rise in inflation for Q1 2024, with an expected increase of 0.9%. The data for Q1 inflation is scheduled for release at 10:45 PM GMT.
Japan's trade deficit narrowed dramatically in February 2024, dropping to JPY 379.358 billion from a much higher JPY 928.908 billion in the same period last year. This positive development significantly surpassed market expectations of a JPY 810.2 billion gap.
Looking ahead, market participants forecast the trade balance to reach JPY 280 billion in March. The data for March is expected to be released at 11:50 PM GMT.
Wednesday 16th of April
Inflation continued its downward trend in February 2024 in the United Kingdom, dropping to 3.4% year-on-year. This marks a significant decrease from 4% in both January and December and falls below market expectations of 3.5%. It's the lowest inflation rate since September 2021.
Several factors contributed to the decline, including slow food price growth (the cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose at a slower pace (5.0%) compared to January (6.9%)) and moderation in services (prices in sectors like restaurants and hotels (6.0% vs 7.0%), recreation and culture (5.4% vs 5.7%), and miscellaneous goods and services (3.6% vs 4.5%) also showed a welcome slowdown).
However, not all areas saw the same level of relief. Costs for housing and utilities (-1.7% vs -2.1%) and transport (-0.1% vs -0.3%) declined at a slower pace compared to the previous month.
Market participants expect inflation to continue its downward trajectory, with a forecast of 3.1% for March's data, due for release at 06:00 AM GMT.
Eurozone inflation continued its downward trend in March 2024, according to preliminary data. The consumer price index (CPI) fell to 2.4% year-on-year, matching the lowest level seen in November 2023 and surpassing market predictions of 2.6%.
This positive news extends to core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Core inflation dipped to 2.9%, the lowest since February 2022 and below forecasts of 3.0%. The final inflation figures for March are expected to confirm the preliminary estimate of 2.4% year-on-year, with data due for release at 09:00 AM GMT.
Thursday 20th of April
Australia's unemployment rate defied expectations in February 2024, falling to 3.7%. This marks the lowest level since September 2023 and is a significant improvement from January's 4.1% rate. The positive data surprised market analysts who had predicted a rate of 4.0%. However, this trend might not continue. Market participants are forecasting a slight increase to 4.0% for March's unemployment data, due for release at 1:30 AM GMT.
U.S. unemployment claims data for the week ending March 30th surprised analysts. New claims surged by 11,000 from the previous week's revised figure, reaching 221,000 - the highest level in two months. This number significantly exceeded market expectations of 214,000.
The unexpected rise breaks a recent trend of low initial claim counts and stands in contrast to other positive labor market reports released recently. This suggests a potential delay in the impact of rising interest rates on the labor market. However, the overall tightness in the job market might still be absorbing this impact.
The number of new claims is forecast to slow down to 215,000 for the week ending April 6th, with data scheduled for release at 12:30 PM GMT.
Japan's annual inflation rate climbed to 2.8% in February 2024, marking its highest level since November 2023. This represents a pickup from 2.2% in January and the first acceleration in four months. The rise is primarily driven by the fading effect of government energy subsidies introduced in February 2023.
On the energy front, the impact of these subsidies is waning, leading to a smaller decline in fuel and light prices (-3.0%) compared to last year (-13.9%). This was primarily due to slower price drops for electricity (-2.5% vs -21.0%) and gas (-9.4% vs -15.3%).
Despite the overall increase, inflation showed mixed signals across other sectors. Prices rose faster for culture and recreation (7.3% vs 6.8%) but moderated for food (4.8% vs 5.7%), housing (0.6% vs 0.7%), and transportation (2.9% vs 3.0%). Healthcare, clothing, furniture, and education also saw some slowdown, while communication and miscellaneous goods showed a slight increase.
Market participants anticipate inflation to hold steady at 2.8% in March, with data expected for release at 11:30 PM GMT.
Friday 19th of April
U.K. retail sales defied expectations in February 2024, remaining unchanged from the previous month. This comes after a positive revision to January's data, which showed a stronger-than-anticipated 3.6% increase. Analysts had predicted a slight decline of 0.3% for February.
The performance was mixed across sectors. Clothing stores (1.7%) and department stores (1.6%) enjoyed a boost, likely driven by new collections. However, this was offset by softening sales at food stores (-0.3%) and fuel retailers (-1.3%).
Online sales continued their upward trend, surging by 2.1% - the highest increase since July 2023. This growth was particularly notable for clothing retailers, possibly due to wet weather encouraging online shopping instead of in-store visits.
Market participants forecast a modest 0.2% increase in March's retail sales data, scheduled for release at 06:00 AM GMT. However, the recent mixed performance suggests some uncertainty about future growth.
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