On Monday 22nd: The EU’s Consumer Confidence is published.
On Tuesday 23rd: Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due for Japan, France, Germany, the EU, the UK and the US, along with US New Home Sales.
On Wednesday 24th: The RBNZ meets on monetary policy, the UK releases Inflation figures, Germany releases its Ifo Business Climate Index and the Fed releases its monetary policy minutes.
On Thursday 25th: The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany is due, along with the US Pending Home Sales numbers.
On Friday 26th: UK Retail Sales are due, along with US Core PCE Price Index, US Personal Spending and Income and US Durable Goods Orders.
Weekly outlook
There's a reasonably interesting spread of economic news to follow this week for investors and traders. Many of the season's most anticipated earnings reports have already been made public, but a few well-known figures are yet to appear. NVIDIA is one example. After the market closes on Wednesday, May 24th, the Silicon Valley tech firm, which is recognised for its unique graphics processing units (GPUs), will announce its Q1 figures. Analysts anticipate strong quarterly profits of $0.92 per share from the company, after its $0.88 eps from the previous quarter.
Outside of economic data releases, in the US, all eyes are still on Congress, as the standoff over the federal debt limit continues. According to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the possibility for default looms as early as June 1st and investors are nervous. What impact will this tense mood have on markets this week? Hold onto your hats!
Monday 22nd of May
The Flash Consumer confidence report for the Euro Area is due at 2:00 PM GMT today and is expected to show a continuation of the gradually improving trend, up to -16. The Index increased by 1.6 points in April, reaching -17.5, its highest level since February 2022 and in line with early forecasts. With improvements in all areas, including consumers' perceptions of their household's past and future financial situation, the anticipated general economic situation in their nation, and their intentions to make significant purchases, consumer confidence in the EU also increased from an all-time low in September 2022.
Major Earnings Report:
Galaxy Entertainment Group
Tuesday 23rd of May
A series of Manufacturing and Services PMI’s are due for publishing across the day from Japan, France, Germany, the EU, the UK and the US among others. A primary indicator of economic health, an index reading above 50 indicates industry growth, while a reading below 50 indicates industry contraction. The Flash and Final variants of this report are released approximately one week apart. Today's Flash releases are the earliest and therefore tend to have the greatest impact on investors. Expected results are mixed, but generally the Services sector shows steady growth across the board, whereas Manufacturing appears subdued.
US New Home Sales in March surged 9.3% month-over-month to an annualized pace of 683K, the highest in a year and far more than the 630K that had been predicted. When the most recent figures for April are published at 2:00 PM GMT, expectations are for a slight dip to 0.663K.
Major Earnings Reports:
Lowe’s Companies
Intuit Corp
Wednesday 24th of May
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is due to meet on Monetary Policy today with the decision statement released at 2:00 AM GMT and a press conference following an hour later. The official cash rate in New Zealand is now 5.25%, the highest level since December 2008, after a 50 basis point increase at the April meeting. Consumer prices have been stubbornly high in the country and employment has been beyond the maximum sustainable level. As a result, expectations are for a further 25 basis points bump this week to 5.50%.
The UK releases its annualized Inflation Rate for April at 6:00 AM GMT today. In March, the rate decreased to 10.1% year over year from 10.4% in February, above market estimates of 9.8%. Analysts predict that interest rate rises are starting to have their desired effect, and inflation should have cooled to 8.5% for this coming report.
In April this year, the Ifo Business Climate index for Germany increased by 0.4% from the previous month to 93.6, marking the highest level since February of last year and the sixth consecutive period of growth. Although the most recent number was lower than expected, it nevertheless showed that business concerns were decreasing despite Europe's biggest economy being slow to recover. The latest report for May due at 8:00 AM GMT, is expected to show a slight dip to 93.2.
The Federal Reserve is due to post its minutes from its most recent Monetary Policy Meeting at 6:00 PM GMT today. At its meeting in early May, the FOMC increased the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5%-5.25%, bringing interest rates to their highest level in around 15 years. Investors will be looking out for the minutes for any insight into the next monetary policy outcome for the meeting on the 14th of June.
Major Earnings Reports:
NVIDIA
Xiaomi Corp
Lenovo Group
Analog Devices
Thursday 25th of May
The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany rose for the seventh consecutive month in April, reaching -25.7, which is the highest reading since April 2022 and better than the -27.9 predicted by the market. When the most recent report is due at 6:00 AM GMT, expectations are for a further improvement to -24 for June.
After a 21.1% annual drop in February, pending home sales in the US fell by 23.2% in March, the 22nd consecutive monthly loss. While the trend may be improving gradually, the forecast for April sales year on year is still for a drop of 19% when the report is released at 2:00 PM.
Major Earnings Reports:
Meituan
Costco
Dollar Tree
Royal Bank of Canada
Friday 26th of May
Retail sales figures in the UK are due today at 6:00 AM GMT. Having fallen by 0.9% from a month earlier in March as interest rates and inflation continued to bite, expectations are for growth of 0.3% for April.
A number of reports are due from the US at 12:30 PM GMT. Most anticipated are the Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, Personal Income and the Durable Goods Orders data.
Core PCE prices, which exclude food and energy, climbed 0.3% in March, matching the preceding month and market forecasts, this is expected to hold steady at the same growth rate month over month for April. Continuously high inflation rates and higher borrowing rates have been impacting heavily on Personal Spending, and it has understandably stagnated recently.
However, this is anticipated to have grown in April by 0.4% month over month. Meanwhile, Personal Income is expected to have grown by the same rate. Durable goods orders climbed 3.2% in March from a month earlier, rebounding after a revised 1.2% decrease in February. Consensus for April orders is for a dip of 0.9%.
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