On Monday 15th: Industrial Production in the Euro Area is due along with the US’s New York Empire State Manufacturing Index
On Tuesday 16th: The RBA publishes minutes from the last Monetary Policy Meeting, China’s Industrial Production data is released, the UK publishes employment data, while the German ZEW Index, Canada’s CPI figures and US Retail Sales are released alongside Japanese GDP updates.
On Wednesday 17th: US Building Permits and the Japanese Trade Balance is due.
On Thursday 18th: Australian employment data, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and the GfK Consumer Confidence index are all due.
On Friday 19th: Canadian Retail Sales figures are due to be published.
Weekly outlook
A busy five days of economic data to keep track of during mid-May. Earnings are beginning to slow down, but there are some big names still to deliver results this week. E-commerce giants Alibaba and Tencent are among the most prominent of those aiming for a resurgence in growth. Many will be keeping a close eye on the performance of these enterprises as China continues on its robust route of recovery after its COVID-19 zero policy.
Meanwhile, investors are hoping that US big box retailers Walmart, Target, and Home Depot will also report a decent quarter before discount competitors Costco and Dollar Tree post their results the following week. Consumers have been feeling the pinch of strong inflation and increasing interest rates this year, leading many to seek out relative bargains at discount retailers.
Monday 15th of May
Industrial Production in the Euro Area increased by 1.5% in February over the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of growth and above market estimates of a gain of 1.0%. When the most recent report is released at 9:00 AM GMT, the expectation for March is that output will have dipped by 0.8% from February.
When compared to market expectations of -18, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index surprisingly increased to 10.8 in April. New York State's manufacturing had its first gain in activity in five months, and its greatest growth since July of last year, according to the report. Growth is still forecast for May, with the index released at 12:30 PM GMT to show growth to a level of 8.
Major Earnings Reports:
Mitsubishi Financial Group
AXA
Porsche
Tuesday 16th of May
The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 1:30 AM GMT. The bank unexpectedly continued to lift interest rates this month after a pause in the cycle in April. The minutes will give welcome insight into the process followed for the decision, and investors will be looking for any hint of the next meeting’s potential outcome which is scheduled for the 6th of June.
China's industrial production rose 3.9% year-over-year in March, far above the 2.4% gain seen in January/February. After the zero-COVID policy was lifted, manufacturing output and utility output increased at the quickest rate since last October, but mining activity decreased. A further huge increase is expected for April. Analysts are looking for a 10.1% increase in growth year over year when the data is released at 2:00 AM GMT.
The Claimant Count Change, which shows the number of persons requesting unemployment benefits in the UK, increased by 28.2K in March, the largest rise since February 2021 and the first increase in three months. The latest figures, due at 6:00 AM GMT, are expected to show a decrease back to -15.0K. The Unemployment figure released at the same time is forecast to hold steady at 3.8% and Average Earnings including bonuses are expected to continue tapering down from the previous 5.9% growth to 4.9%.
After falling for two consecutive months, Germany's ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment hit a new annual low of 4.1 in April, down from March's 13. As rising inflation and globally restrictive monetary policies weigh on the economy, and although this month’s expected increase to 7 is positive, experts predict that banks will be increasingly selective with their lending practices for the rest of the year. The Index for May is due to be released at 9:00 AM GMT.
Canada’s annual CPI figures are published today at 12:30 PM GMT. Inflation decreased to 4.3% in March, the lowest since August 2021, down from 5.2% the month before partly due to reduced energy costs. The Bank of Canada (BoC) predicted 3% inflation by the third quarter after it chose to pause its interest rate hikes, however, with this month’s expected 3.9% figure, their prediction may be a worst case scenario.
US Retail Sales fell 0.6% in March after a 0.7% drop in February. Cost concerns and increasing interest rates may be affecting consumers' spending on average but this month’s report for April due at 12:30 PM GMT is expected to show a slight bump of 0.7% growth in the sector.
Preliminary Japanese GDP figures are to be published at 11:50 PM GMT today. In the three months leading up to December 2022, the Japanese economy contracted by 0.3% from the previous quarter despite the original flash number showing 0.2% growth. Quarter over quarter growth is expected to be minimal at 0.1% for Q1, while year over year the quarter is expected to show growth of 0.7%.
Major Earnings Reports:
Home Depot
Vodafone
Ubisoft
Wednesday 17th of May
Preliminary US Building Permit figures are due at 12:30 PM GMT today. The number of permits issued in the US was revised up to 1.43 million at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate from the earlier estimate of 1.413 million in March, and is expected to have increased slightly for April to 1.432 million again. Nonetheless, this data continues to indicate muted home demand owing to increasing interest rates and consumer costs.
Compared to the market consensus of a JPY 1,294.8 billion difference, Japan's trade deficit widened to JPY 754.7 billion in March from JPY 464.9 billion for the same month last year. If predictions for a JPY -754.5 billion deficit come to pass for the April report due at 11:50 PM GMT, it will be the 21st consecutive month of deficits.
Major Earnings Reports:
Tencent
Cisco Systems
Siemens
NIO
TJX Companies
Target
Vallourec
Commerzbank
Thursday 18th of May
Employment data for Australia is released today at 1:30 AM GMT. Following a downwardly revised 63,600 rise a month earlier, employment in Australia increased by 53,000 to 13.88 million in March, which was well above market forecasts. The economy is expected to have added over 25,000 jobs in April while the Unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 3.5%.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is due for publishing today at 12:30 PM GMT. The index dropped from -23.2 in March to -31.3 points in April, the lowest reading since May 2020. It was the seventh straight negative result, falling short of market estimates of -19.2 points. Expectations are for an increase to -20 for May.
As Britons began to feel more secure about their financial situations and the state of the economy as a whole, the GfK Consumer Confidence index increased to -30 in April from -36 in March, the highest level since February 2022. Cost of living challenges and increasing interest rates continue to weigh heavily in May, keeping the expected number far below zero at around -32 and showing an overall fall in confidence. This month’s index is due at 11:00 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Reports:
Alibaba Group
Walmart
Applied Materials
Friday 19th of May
According to early projections, retail sales in Canada are predicted to have decreased by 0.3% month over month in March when the data is released at 12:30 PM GMT. Overall sales decreased by 0.2% from January to February.
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