On Monday 29th: US Memorial Day/ UK Bank Holiday
On Tuesday 30th: The US CB Consumer Confidence Index is released.
On Wednesday 31st: The Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI is due, along with Japanese Consumer Confidence, French, Italian and German Inflation figures, Canadian GDP, the Chicago PMI, and US JOLTS Job Openings.
On Thursday 1st: The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI is due, along with EU inflation figures, the US ADP Employment Change, and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
On Friday 2nd: US Unemployment Rate and Non Farm Payrolls are published.
Weekly outlook
Despite a slow start to the week, investors will eventually have access to a wide selection of economic news as the month of May comes to a close. In contrast to the recent UK inflation results that prompted European markets to dip, it is anticipated that inflation data for the EU will continue to show declines as a result of tightening policy. Core inflation in the UK, which includes volatile food and energy prices, increased to 6.8% this week, a 31-year high.
The much-anticipated US Non Farm Payroll figures are also scheduled to be released this week. Recent employment data showed a solid increase in non-farm payrolls, suggesting that the labour market remains very healthy despite turmoil in the financial sector and other symptoms of an economic slowdown in the US.
Monday 29th of May
The US and UK take the day to celebrate Memorial Day and a Bank Holiday, while it is otherwise a quiet day for economic news.
Tuesday 30th of May
Confidence in the US economy as gauged by Conference Board's (CB) Consumer Confidence Index, decreased from 104.0 in March to 101.3 in April. Consumer attitudes, purchasing intentions, travel plans, and forecasts for inflation, stock prices, and interest rates are all included in the monthly study, and the results feature data provided from the top 8 states, 9 regions, and age and economic groups. When the most recent report is released at 2:00 PM GMT, it's expected to show a further dip to 100 as the overall outlook turns more pessimistic.
Wednesday 31st of May
In China, the official NBS Manufacturing PMI surprisingly dropped from 51.9 in March to 49.2 in April, below market expectations of 51.4. The most recent data indicated that manufacturing activity had decreased for the first time since December of last year due to sluggish global demand, but when the new report for May is released at 1:30 AM GMT, it’s expected to rise again slightly to 49.8.
In April, the consumer confidence index in Japan rose to 35.4 from the previous month's 33.9. The economy continues to recover from pandemic disruptions and is strengthening across the board, leading to the highest reading since January 2022. Expectations are for a further bump up to 36 when the data for May are published at 5:00 AM GMT.
Preliminary French, Italian and German Inflation figures are to be released throughout the day today. An increase in energy costs had led to an acceleration in France's annual inflation rate in April, which was confirmed at 5.9%, up from the 5.7% increase in the previous month, but down from the recent peak of 6.3%. It’s anticipated that this figure will have cooled only slightly to 5.7% again for May. For Italy, preliminary reports are expected to show a drop from 8.2% to 7.6%, while Germany is also anticipated to show a rate cooling from 7.2% to 6.7%.
Canadian GDP figures are published at 12:30 GMT today. After five straight quarters of growth and a 0.7% rise in Q3 of 2022, the Canadian economy showed no growth last quarter. For Q1 analysts expect a return to growth of 0.5%.
Back in the US, the Chicago PMI rose to 48.6 in April, which was above market expectations of 43.5. The data suggested a milder than usual decline in Chicago area commercial activity, but it was the eighth such decline in a row. Expectations are for a continuing trend below par with a level around 47 for May when the report is released at 1:45 PM GMT.
US JOLTS Job Openings are due for release at 2:00 PM GMT today. The number of job opportunities in the US decreased by 384K to 9.6M in March, the lowest level since April 2021 and under the market forecast of 9.775M, suggesting that the labor market may be slowing down. The trend may continue yet, as forecasts suggest a further dip is due, down to 9.2M.
Thursday 1st of June
The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped from 50.0 in March to 49.5 in April, falling short of market expectations. In light of the continuing real estate crisis and concerns about a worldwide recession, the most recent outcome was the first decline in manufacturing activity since January. When the new report for May is published at 1:45 AM GMT, analysts expect this figure to grow slightly back up to 50.0.
Consumer price inflation in the Euro Area was verified to be 7% in April, up from the previous month's 13-month low of 6.9%. The rate continued to be much higher than the European Central Bank's objective of 2%, showing that policymakers would probably keep working to reduce inflationary pressures with tightening policy. A slight dip back down to 6.5% is forecast when the new data is released at 9:00 AM GMT.
The private sector in the US added 296K jobs in April, which was much more than the downwardly revised 142K added in March and the 148K predicted. The employment growth rate is the highest it has been since July of 2022 and is still expected to show strong growth for the May report, due at 12:15 PM GMT, with 200K more jobs thought to have been created.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the United States increased to 47.1 in April from the previous month's 46.3, which was a three year low. However, the most recent data to be published at 2:00 PM GMT may suggest manufacturing activity has contracted for a seventh straight month due to increasing borrowing prices and restrictive credit, which increases the likelihood of a recession occurring this year. Analysts expect the level to remain around 47 for May.
Friday 2nd of June
A range of employment data for the US is to be published at 12:30 PM GMT today. In April, the Unemployment Rate fell to 3.4%, matching the record low set in January and coming in lower than market forecasts of 3.6%. Expectations are for a slight rise to 3.5% this month.
Non Farm Payrolls are also due for May. After adding 253,000 jobs in April, 165,000 in March (revised down from 236,000) and 248,000 jobs in February (revised down from 326,000), the US economy is expected to create 180,000 new jobs this month, still well above average.
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