On Monday 1st: Japanese Consumer Confidence and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI are both due.
On Tuesday 2nd: The RBA meets on monetary policy, Swiss Consumer Confidence, Euro Area and Italian Inflation and US JOLTS Job Openings are all released.
On Wednesday 3rd: The Eurozone’s Unemployment, and US ISM Services PMI are due, while the Federal Reserve meets on monetary policy.
On Thursday 4th: Australian, Canadian, German, and US Trade Balances are due, the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI and the Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index are released, while the ECB meets on monetary policy.
On Friday 5th: Canadian and US employment data is due, including Nonfarm Payrolls.
Weekly outlook
This week is shaping up to be another eventful one in terms of economic and earnings news, with three significant monetary policy announcements coming from the US, Australia, and the EU. Globally, inflation is falling, but central banks don't seem to be stepping on the brakes when it comes to tightening policy just yet, until they are certain prices have returned to their target levels.
Following better than expected earnings results from Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet last week, investors will be watching the highly anticipated release from Apple after its last earnings in February fell short of expectations. Other big companies are expected to publish their financial results as well.
Monday 1st of May
The Japanese Consumer Confidence Index rose to 33.9 in March from 31.1 the previous month, well above market expectations. As the economy continued to recover from the effects of the pandemic, consumer confidence rose to its highest level since May 2022. A slight dip to 32 is expected when the most recent survey is published at 5:00 AM GMT.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI, due at 2:00 PM GMT, is expected to increase slightly to 46.6 for April compared to March’s reading of 46.3, which was the lowest level since May 2020. The trend suggests that increasing interest rates and mounting recession worries are beginning to weigh on firms.
Major Earnings Reports:
Stryker Corp
Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Tuesday 2nd of May
The Reserve Bank of Australia is due to meet on monetary policy today, with its statement due to be released at 4:30 AM GMT. The cash rate in Australia was left unchanged by the RBA at its April meeting, as was widely anticipated. This is the first pause in the tightening cycle that began in May of 2022. The action was part of the board's attempts to allow for lags in policy, and it was accompanied by a promise to restart tightening if necessary. Analysts see an increase from 3.6% to 3.85% is likely at this meeting.
From Switzerland, the Consumer Confidence survey rose to -30.2 in Q1 2023 from -46.53 in the previous quarter. The January poll found that consumers had a far more upbeat outlook on the economy for the next year than they had back in the October 2022 survey. Forecasts are for a rise to -24.4, when the results are published at 7:00 AM GMT, which is still well below average.
Inflation in the Euro Area fell to 6.9% in March, the lowest annual rate since February 2022 and down from the record high of 10.6% in October 2022. While the core index reached a new record high of 5.7%, the overall rate remained persistently high and far over the European Central Bank's objective of 2.0%, putting pressure on policymakers to proceed with more rate rises. A slight drop is expected from the April figures to 6.6% when the report is made public at 9:00 AM GMT.
Since May last year, Italy's annual inflation rate has been falling, in part because of a decline in energy prices. March’s rate of price increases hit a new low of 7.6%, down from the previous 9.1%, but when the latest figures are released at 9:00 AM GMT, expectations are for inflation to have stalled at 7.7%.
JOLTs Job Openings in February showed that the number of available positions in the United States dropped by 632,000 to 9.9 million, the lowest level since May 2021 and below market estimates. A further decline to 9.7 million is expected for March, suggesting the labour market is finally starting to cool. The latest figures are due for release at 2:00 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Reports:
Pfizer
HSBC
Advanced Micro Devices
Starbucks
Uber
Wednesday 3rd of May
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone was 6.6% in February, which was unchanged from January and somewhat lower than market expectations of 6.7%. The rate is projected to rise back to 6.8% when the data is announced at 9:00 AM GMT.
The US ISM Services PMI dropped from 55.1 in February to 51.2 in March. Despite improvements in capacity and logistics and a decrease in pricing pressures, the reading for the sector was the weakest in three months, indicating services expanded at the slowest rate since September 2020. The latest up-to-date data for April is expected to show a decline to 50.6, according to the report released at 2:00 PM GMT.
The Federal Reserve is due to meet on monetary policy today, with the decision released at 6:00 PM GMT and a press conference to follow shortly after. The Fed raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%-5% in March, driving the cost of borrowing to new highs since 2007, and analysts expect another 25 basis points jump from this meeting as inflation still remains high above target at 5%.
Major Earnings Reports:
Qualcomm
Airbus
CVS Health Corp
BNP Paribas
Lufthansa
Thursday 4th of May
From a revised AUD 11.27 billion in January, Australia posted a surplus of AUD 13.87 billion in February, well above market expectations and the highest it has been since June 2022. The report released at 01:30 AM GMT is forecast to show a slight dip in the surplus to AUD 13.5 billion.
The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI is due at 1:45 AM GMT today. After missing market expectations in March and dropping to 50.0 from an 8-month high of 51.6 in February, the latest outcome showed rising concerns about the durability of China's economic momentum in the face of a protracted property slowdown and global financial instability. A slight rebound to 50.4 is expected for April.
In February, Germany's trade surplus was EUR 16 billion, mostly unchanged from the previous month but still a high not seen since mid-2021. The latest trade balance report due at 6:00 AM GMT is projected to show a surplus of EUR 18.9 billion.
The ECB is scheduled to meet on monetary policy today, with its statement released at 12:15 PM GMT and a press conference due shortly after. After hiking borrowing rates at the quickest pace on record to battle inflation, the ECB is projected to give a 25 basis point rate rise in May and potentially two more by mid-year.
Canada reported a trade surplus of CAD 420 million in February, which was much lower than the revised surplus of CAD 1.2 billion in January and forecasts of a CAD 1.8 billion positive balance. When the latest figures are issued, it’s expected that the balance will fall to a CAD 240 million deficit.
The US recorded a trade deficit of $70.5 billion in February, the largest in four months and somewhat higher than predictions. The report due at 12:30 PM GMT is expected to show little has changed with a deficit of $70 billion.
The Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index rose to 58.2 in March from 51.6 the previous month, above market expectations of 56.1. Increases in activity are expected to dip in April to 53 with the latest figures reported at 2:00 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Reports:
Apple
Novo Nordisk
Equinor
Shell
ConocoPhillips
Anheuser Busch
Volkswagen
BMW
Capgemini
Veolia
Legrand
Friday 5th of May
US and Canadian employment data is due to be published today at 12:30 PM GMT. From Canada, the Unemployment Rate for April is set to increase to 5.2% after remaining at 5% for four consecutive months. While the country is expected to add 25 thousand new jobs, down from almost 35 thousand the previous month.
In the US, Nonfarm Payroll data is forecast to show an increase of 181,000 jobs in the economy compared to the 236,000 jobs created in March. The result still indicates a solid labor market, despite a gradual slowing in hiring as the economy normalizes after the pandemic shocks and as high borrowing rates and prices compel companies to reduce expenses. The Unemployment Rate is also expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.5%.
Major Earnings Report:
Warner Bros
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