On Monday 8th: Australian NAB Business Confidence and Building Approvals are due.
On Tuesday 9th: Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment and the UK’s Halifax Home Price Index are released.
On Wednesday 10th: US CPI is due, and the Bank of Japan publishes its minutes from the most recent Monetary Policy Meeting.
On Thursday 11th: The BoE meets on monetary policy and US PPI is published.
On Friday 12th: GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production are due for the UK, and the US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is released.
Weekly outlook
After a furiously busy week for investors last week, a more subdued lineup is to come from the 8th of May. The US checks in with its inflation numbers after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates once again last week by 25 basis points to 5%-5.25%. Meanwhile the Bank of England is expected to follow suit and continue in its cycle of tightening for what some economists hope is the final such increase this year.
Disney reports its second quarter earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell. In light of the fact that the company exceeded analysts' expectations for its first quarter, where subscriber losses were not as severe as anticipated, Disney is now in the process of slashing thousands of jobs and operational expenses, so the report for this quarter could be intriguing to investors. Revenues are projected to be $21.78 billion, up 13.2% from the year-ago quarter, while profits per share are predicted to be $0.89, a change of -17.6% year over year according to Zacks Investment Research.
Monday 8th of May
The NAB business confidence index for Australia increased by 3 points to -1 in March, above market forecasts for an improvement to -2. This increase in mood was mostly driven by the manufacturing industry. While confidence in all other industries remained high, it decreased slightly in the mining and construction sectors and remained low in the retail, wholesale, and finance, business, and real estate sectors. Expectations for April’s results are for a further increase to 1 when the report is released at 1:30 AM GMT.
Building Permits approved in Australia for the month of March are also due today at 1:30 AM GMT. After a downwardly revised 27.1% decline in January, the seasonally adjusted estimate for all home builds permitted increased by 4% month over month to 12,661 units in February. After hitting a 10-year low in January, the upturn was fueled by an 11.3% increase in approvals for private sector homes. Expectations are for a 2.6% increase for the most recent data.
Major Earnings Reports:
PayPal
BioNTech
Westpac Bank
Tyson Foods
Tuesday 9th of May
After hovering at a 30-year low the previous month, Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment increased by 9.4% month-over-month in April 2023 to 85.8. Within the index, the indicator of economic circumstances for the next 12 months jumped 16.5% to 85.4 as a result of the Reserve Bank pausing its rate rises. Since the RBA has lifted rates again at its most recent meeting this month, the index is expected to dip slightly to 82.1 when the May results are released at 12:30 AM GMT.
The UK’s Halifax home price index increased 1.6% in March compared to the same month a year earlier, down from the 2.1% gain the previous month. Higher borrowing costs and lower housing demand, as well as the increased cost of living, are expected to further dampen activity in the housing market this year. As potentially evidenced by the most recent report published at 6:00 AM GMT, with year over year results for April expected to dip to 0.9%. April prices compared to March are forecast for a gain of 0.3% compared to 0.8% the month earlier.
Major Earnings Reports:
Airbnb
Nintendo
Fox Corporation
Fresenius
Wednesday 10th of May
US CPI figures are due for release today at 12:30 PM GMT. For the ninth straight month, annual inflation has been dropping, and hit 5% in March from 6% in February. While further decreases are still expected in April, forecasts are for only a slight drop to 4.9% year over year, whereas core inflation is looking to remain at 5.6% year over year.
The Bank of Japan publishes its monetary policy Summary of Opinions at 11:50 PM GMT today. By a unanimous vote, the BoJ kept its benchmark short-term interest rate at -0.1% and the yield on its 10-year bonds at about 0% last month. It was the first meeting attended by newly appointed Governor Kazuo Ueda, and the board resolved to undertake a broad-perspective assessment of the monetary course, with an anticipated time frame of around 1 to 1-1/2 years.
Major Earnings Reports:
Disney
Toyota
Vestas Wind Systems
E.ON
Continental
Crédit Agricole
Eiffage
Alstom
Thursday 11th of May
The Bank of England is due to meet on monetary policy today, with its statement released at 11:00 AM GMT. In accordance with forecasts, the BoE increased its key bank rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% at the March meeting, boosting borrowing prices to the highest levels in more than a decade in an effort to restore inflation back to target. The UK's inflation rate unexpectedly increased last month from 10.1% to 10.4%, and many believe that the bank will be forced to lift rates by at least 25 basis points to 4.5% at this meeting before inflation is expected to fall sharply over the last half of the year.
Despite predictions of a flat reading, the United States' producer prices for final demand fell 0.5% month over month in March, the largest drop since April 2020. Consensus estimates put the April PPI level at 0.3% growth when the report is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Reports:
Bayer
Honda
ING
Friday 12th of May
The UK is due to report its GDP, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production figures among others today from 6:00AM GMT.
Preliminary data for the first quarter is expected to show a year over year decline in economic growth of 0.5% compared to the previous gain of 0.6%. Meanwhile, 0.1% growth is expected for the first quarter, unchanged from the fourth quarter of last year. For the month of March compared to February, the economy is forecast to have grown by 0.1%. After an upwardly corrected 0.5% reduction in January, Industrial Production in the UK decreased 0.2% month-on-month in February, marking the second consecutive loss. New March data is forecast for a slight gain of 0.2% month over month. At the same time, Manufacturing Production is expected to fall slightly by 0.1% month over month for March.
US consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan rose to 63.5 in April from 62 in March. Both the present situation and future expectations were slightly improved in the index. Consumers' short- and long-term economic outlook has improved since last month despite hearing more negative news about the economy. These improvements however, were countered by a decline in personal financial assessments as a result of increased expenses, illustrating the long-term difficulty caused by persistently high inflation and interest rates. The most recent report released at 2:00 PM GMT is anticipated to show a slight dip in the index to 63.
Major Earnings Reports:
Allianz
Société Générale
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