On Monday 24th: The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index are due.
On Tuesday 25th: The US CB Consumer Confidence Index and New US Home Sales info are released.
On Wednesday 26th: Australian CPI figures, the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany, and US Durable Goods Orders are released, while the BoC publishes its Monetary Policy minutes.
On Thursday 27th: US GDP and Pending Home Sales are expected to be published.
On Friday 28th: The BoJ meets on Monetary Policy, French, German, Italian, EU, and Canadian GDP data is due, while German Inflation, US Core PCE, and US Personal Income and Spending are all released.
Weekly outlook
Company earnings are really rolling this week with the major players in big tech, some of the larger food and beverage companies and pharmaceuticals announcing their results from the last three months. Investors will be keenly watching out for the Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon figures, which are mostly expected to be suffering from the ongoing strain of increased expenses and capital expenditures putting pressure on margins. Since more than 40% of the Nasdaq 100 is made up of these companies, this is the index to keep an eye on this week if you’re trading it.
A decent spread of economic data is also expected across the week. Look out for GDP and CPI data that supports the notion of the tighter monetary policy finally having an impact on slowing down the major economies.
Monday 24th of April
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose to 93.3 in March from 91.1 the previous month, which was above market expectations and the highest reading since February 2022. Despite the current financial upheaval, high prices, and borrowing rates, company confidence increased for the fifth consecutive month. When the April figures are released at 8:00 AM GMT, expectations are for another rise to 94.4.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for Texas manufacturing decreased for a second month to -15.7 in March from -13.5 in February. Conditions appear to still be declining as the forecast for April’s report, due at 2:30 PM GMT, sits at -17.
Major Earnings Reports:
Coca-Cola
Canadian National Railway
Vivendi
Tuesday 25th of April
Optimism in the US economy is gauged by the Conference Board's (CB) Consumer Confidence Index, which is released today at 2:00 PM GMT. Consumers have a tendency to spend more when they feel positive, which boosts consumption and economic growth overall. Analysts expect March’s 104.2 to remain unchanged for April.
At a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of 640K in February, sales of new single-family homes in the US hit their highest level since August of last year, they did however fall short of predictions of 650K. When the newest data is released at 2:00 PM GMT, expectations are for a slight dip to 635K.
Major Earnings Reports:
Microsoft
Alphabet
Visa
PepsiCo
McDonald’s
Novartis
Verizon
Texas Instruments
Kering
Vinci
Wednesday 26th of April
Australia is due to report its CPI data for the quarter today at 1:30 AM GMT. In the last quarter of 2022, Australia's annual inflation rate accelerated to 7.8%, up from 7.3% in the previous quarter and beyond market expectations of 7.5%. The growing expenses of food, fuel, and new home building contributed to the highest print since the first quarter of 1990. The annualized rate of price increases is expected to drop to 6.8% for the first three months of 2023.
The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany rose for a sixth straight month in April, reaching -29.5. This was the highest reading since last July and was higher than the -29.2 predicted by the market. When the report is released at 6:00 AM GMT, it's expected to improve again to -28.
U.S. orders for durable goods, defined as those with a projected lifespan of three years or more, fell by 1% month-over-month in February, after an upwardly revised 5% decrease in January and below market expectations. The most recent data, due out at 12:30 PM GMT, is expected to show .9% growth for March.
The Bank of Canada will publish its minutes from its most recent Monetary Policy Meeting today at 5:30 PM GMT. In its April meeting, the BoC maintained its overnight rate at 4.5% and said it would continue to assess economic data for future policy rate decisions. After the March tightening pause, the Governing Council decided to support slowing growth since existing borrowing rates are thought to be restrictive enough to push inflation down to 2%.
Major Earnings Reports:
Meta Platforms
Thermo Fisher Scientific
Dassault Systemes
Danone
Thursday 27th of April
In the last three months of 2022, the economy of the United States increased at an annualized rate of 2.6% per quarter, which was slightly lower than the early predictions of a 2.7% increase. GDP figures released at 12:30 PM GMT are expected to show 2% growth for the first quarter of the year compared to the last.
Annualized Pending Home Sales in the US for March are due to be reported at 2:00 PM GMT today. After a year-over-year drop of 24.1% in January, sales fell 21.1% in February, the 21st consecutive monthly loss. A slight improvement is expected for March at -18%, however, there is a long way to go before the industry is back in positive territory.
Major Earnings Reports:
Amazon
Eli Lilly & Co
Mastercard
DNB Bank
Merck & Co
Friday 28th of April
The Bank of Japan is due to meet on Monetary Policy today with its statement due at 3:00 AM GMT. In March, the BoJ unanimously retained its benchmark short-term interest rate at -0.1% and 10-year bond rates at around 0%. The board didn't change yield curve control or the 0.5% bond purchase limit, calming concerns that the policy's adverse consequences must be handled soon. Analysts don't expect any changes to come from April’s meeting for interest rates.
In accordance with early estimates, the French economy grew by 0.5% annually in the last three months of 2022. This was the slowest pace in the current sequence of expansion, which began in 2021. While analysts see a slight dip in growth for the three months to the end of March, when the latest GDP data is released at 5:30 AM GMT, 0.3% growth is expected.
Core PCE prices, which exclude food and energy, climbed 0.3% month-over-month in February, after a downwardly revised 0.5% gain in January. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the annual rate, grew by 4.6%, the lowest in 15 months and below market forecasts of 4.7%. When the newest figures for March are published at 12:30 PM GMT, a 0.4% rise is expected from the prior month.
Flash and Preliminary GDP figures are due out for a number of major economies across the day. Spain, Germany, Italy, the EU, and Canada will publish their first-quarter growth rates, with mostly subdued results or minor gains forecast, as many analysts have expected given the circumstances.
The annual rate of inflation in Germany's consumer prices fell to 7.4% in March from 8.7% in the previous two months, although this was still much higher than the European Central Bank's aim of roughly 2%, it appears to be continuing its trend downwards. When the latest data is released at 12:00 PM GMT, expectations are for inflation to be sitting at around 7%.
US Personal Income and Personal Spending data is due to be released at 12:30 PM GMT today. Having increased by 0.3% in February, the average US income was bolstered by the primary factors of wage and salary increases. 0.2% growth is expected for March month over month. As income grew, so also did personal spending. Growing 0.2% for February from the previous month, and falling just short of market expectations of a 0.3% increase, spending on services increased by $25.8 billion, while expenditure on products rose by $2.0 billion. Analysts expect a dip to -0.1% for March spending.
Major Earnings Reports:
China Construction Bank
Exxon-Mobil
Chevron
Hexagon AB
BOC Hong Kong Holdings
Bank of China
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