On Monday 25th: US New Home Sales and the US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index are due.
On Tuesday 26th: Australian Consumer Confidence is due, along with the German Gfk Consumer Confidence and US New Durable Goods Orders.
On Wednesday 27th: Australian Inflation and Euro Area Economic Sentiment are due.
On Thursday 28th: British, Canadian and US GDP data are all due, as well as US Pending Home Sales.
On Friday 29th: French and Italian Inflation figures are due, along with the US's core PCE prices, US Personal Spending and US Personal Income.
Weekly outlook
This week was a busy one for central banks! Here's a quick rundown of the key decisions. In a historic shift, the Bank of Japan ended its era of negative interest rates and abolished its Yield Curve Control policy. This signals a move towards tighter monetary policy after more than 17 years of accommodative monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia opted to hold interest rates steady for the third consecutive meeting at 4.35%. The Federal Reserve kept its borrowing costs unchanged in a range between 5.25%-5.5% and confirmed its expectations for three cuts to interest rates in 2024. While the Swiss National Bank is the first of the major central bank to have cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 1.5%, the Bank of England is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25%.
Monday 25th of March
Sales of newly constructed single-family homes in the US in January increased by 1.5% over the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annualised pace of 661,000. It was the second increase in a row, in line with the decline in mortgage rates in the first month of the year. A further increase of around 673,000 is expected for February when the new data is released at 10:00 PM GMT.
The overall business activity index for manufacturing in Texas, as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in the US, rose from an eight-month low of -27.4 in January 2024 to -11.3 in February 2024. A further improvement to around -8 is expected from the new report due at 10:30 PM GMT.
Tuesday 26th of March
Australia's MoM Consumer Confidence Index conducted by Westpac rose from -1.30% in January to 6.20% in February. A dip back to -1.6% is expected for March when the figures are updated at 7:30 AM GMT.
Following an 11-month low of 29.6 in February, the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany increased somewhat to -29.0 as of March, in line with market expectations. The April data is expected to be released at 3:00 PM GMT.
Month over month US New Durable Goods Orders are due at 8:30 PM GMT today. Following a 0.3% decline in December 2023, orders fell by 6.1% month over month in January, above market estimates of a 4.5% decline. Growth of around 1% is forecast for February.
Wednesday 27th of March
In the year ending in January 2024, Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator was 3.4%, which was both lower than market expectations of 3.6% and unchanged from the previous month. When the new data is released at 8:30 AM GMT, no change is expected again for February.
The Euro Area's economic confidence indicator in February fell short of the market's expectations of 96.7 to 95.4, down from the revised result of 96.1 in January. Businesses at the time were still feeling the weight of persistently high inflation, growing borrowing costs, and sluggish external demand, which has been keeping sentiment muted. When the new results are published at 6:00 PM GMT, a small dip to around 95 is forecast.
Thursday 28th of March
Following a downwardly revised 0.2% growth in the previous quarter, the British economy, according to a preliminary report due to be confirmed today, contracted 0.2% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2023. This marks the first contraction since 2021 and contrasts with market expectations of a 0.1% increase. The final result will be published at 2:00 PM GMT.
Month over month Canadian GDP for January is due today at 8:30 PM GMT. Its expected the economy most likely expanded by 0.4%.
The final US GDP Growth Rate is due today at 8:30 PM GMT. After growing at a 4.9% rate in Q3, the US economy will likely be confirmed to have increased at an annualised rate of 3.2% rate in Q4 2023.
U.S. Pending Home Sales will be released today from 10:00 PM GMT. Numbers fell 8.83% in January this year compared to the same month the year before. Growth of 2.4% is expected for February.
Friday 29th of March
In February, France's annual inflation rate decreased to 3% from 3.1% in the previous month, surpassing initial projections of 2.9%. When the new data is released at 3:45 PM GMT, a reduction to around 2.8% is expected for March.
Italy is also due to report its Inflation figures today at 6:00 PM GMT. In February, Italy's annual inflation rate was 0.8%, which was consistent with previous projections and unchanged from the previous month. An increase to around 0.9% is forecast for March.
The US's core PCE prices—which exclude food and energy—rose by 0.4% in January 2024 compared to the previous month. This was the highest increase since February 2023 and was predicted by the market. The new figures, due at 8:30 AM GMT are expected to show growth of around 0.3% for February.
US Personal Income increased by 1% in January compared to 0.3% in the previous month, substantially outpacing market expectations of a 0.4% increase. Meanwhile, Personal Spending grew by 0.2% from the previous month in January 2024, which was a significant decrease from the 0.7% gain seen in December. Both Income and Spending are expected to grow 0.4% month over month for February when the results are released at 8:30 PM GMT.
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