On Monday 10th: Easter Monday, Japan’s Consumer Confidence Index is due.
On Tuesday 11th: The Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index plus NAB Business Confidence are published, along with Chinese CPI and Eurozone Retail Sales.
On Wednesday 12th: US CPI data is released, the Bank of Canada meets on Monetary Policy, and the Fed releases its Monetary Policy Minutes.
On Thursday 13th: The Chinese Balance of Trade, UK GDP and US PPI are all published.
On Friday 14th: US Retail Sales, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures are both due.
Weekly outlook
The Easter weekend continues into Monday for most western countries, which allows for a slower start to the week for investors.
It is, however, the beginning of first-quarter earnings reports being released, and there are some big names in the financial sector to kick things off and post their results this week. Chief of which is JPMorgan Chase & Co, which Zacks Investment Research predicts will show a quarterly EPS of $3.43, compared to $2.63 during the same period a year ago. The same researcher additionally sees EPS growth for Wells Fargo, with the average EPS prediction for the quarter at $1.18, up from last year's $0.88 in the same quarter.
Also highly anticipated are the release of inflation and PPI data from the US, as well as the latest Monetary Policy Minutes from the Fed’s meeting a few weeks ago. These figures will hopefully point to a reduction in price increases so that when the FOMC meets again at the beginning of May, the bank will have reason to pause its momentum of rate hikes.
Monday 10th of April
The Consumer Confidence Index from Japan increased to 31.1 in February this year, up from 31.0 the previous month and beyond market expectations. As the economy has continued to recover more from pandemic disruptions, this was the highest reading since August 2022. Expectations are for a further rise to 35 when the report is published at 5:00 AM GMT.
Tuesday 11th of April
From Australia today, Westpac releases its Consumer Confidence Index at 12:30 AM GMT, while the NAB checks in with Business Confidence with its report released shortly after at 1:30 AM GMT.
High inflation, increasing interest rates, and economic uncertainty kept the Consumer Sentiment index at 78.5 in March, near record lows. Expectations are for a slight increase to 79.7 for April, as the RBA paused rate hikes earlier this month. In February, Australia's NAB Business Confidence index took a 10 point hit to -4, its lowest reading since November and below its long-term average due to rising borrowing rates among other issues. The forecast for March is a small recovery to -2.
The annual inflation rate in China dropped to 1.0% in February from 2.1% in the previous month, below market expectations. Food and non-food prices fell dramatically, marking the lowest reading since February 2022, as consumers remained wary despite the end of Covid policy. When the March figures are published at 1:30 AM GMT, analysts expect the number to jump back up around 2% again.
Annualized Retail Sales in the Euro Area have been trending down in recent months. After falling by 2.8% in December, trade again fell by 2.3% from a year earlier in January. When the latest report for February is published at 9:00 AM GMT, expectations are for a further drop of 1.5% in activity.
Wednesday 12th of April
US CPI figures are due to be published at 12:30 PM GMT today, with some positive signs expected for March. In February, inflation fell to 6%, the lowest since September 2021, down from 6.4% in January. Expectations are that it will fall further to 5.8% this month. Core Inflation, which does not include volatile categories like food and energy, decreased for the fifth month in a row in February, reaching its lowest year-over-year rate since December 2021 at 5.5%. It's hoped this month’s figure will reach as low as 5%.
The Bank of Canada is due to meet on Monetary Policy today, with its statement released at 2:00 PM GMT. The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its overnight rate at 4.5% in March, as it had previously been signaling that it would, and indicated that it should keep the rate at the current level should economic conditions develop broadly in line with expectations. This being the case, analysts expect interest rates will be held at 4.5% this month.
The Federal Reserve publishes its minutes from its most recent Monetary Policy Meeting at 6:00 PM GMT, which currency traders often scrutinize for hints about the result of upcoming decisions. The Fed increased rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%- 5% in March. This followed a similar hike in February and brought borrowing rates to their highest level since 2007. Even though some in the financial sector felt the central bank should suspend the tightening cycle to support financial stability, the move was in line with expectations from the majority of investors.
Thursday 13th of April
In January-February, China's trade surplus was a record-breaking USD 116.88 billion, up from USD 109.54 billion in the same period last year. The global economic downturn and weak local demand contributed to a 6.8% annual decline in exports and a 10.2% annual decline in imports. Expectations for March are for a drop back to USD 49 billion when the data is published at 3:00 AM GMT.
After contracting by 0.5% in December due in some part to strikes that slowed business activity, the British economy grew by 0.3% month-over-month in January, just above market expectations. When the March GDP Report is released at 6:00 AM GMT, analysts forecast a slowdown in growth, resulting in a 0.1% contraction.
In February, U.S. producer prices for final demand fell 0.1% from the previous month, against market forecasts of a 0.3% rise. With the March report, due at 12:30 PM GMT, consensus estimates say the rate will hold steady at 0%.
Major Earnings Reports:
Progressive Corp
Infosys
Delta Airlines
Tesco
Friday 14th of April
The United States' retail sector had a 0.4% month-over-month decline in February, missing market expectations and coming on the heels of a 3.2% increase in January that was revised higher to be the largest rise since March 2021. Expectations are for a further drop of 0.4% for March when the report is due at 12:30 PM GMT.
U.S. consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan is released today at 2:00 PM GMT. The index was downgraded from 67 to 62 in March, as consumers' expectations of an impending recession led to first drop in sentiment in four months. The Preliminary April report is expected to show a slight rebound back to 67.
Major Earnings Reports:
United Health
JPMorgan Chase & Co
Wells Fargo & Co
BlackRock
Citigroup
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