On Monday 17th: The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index is due from the US.
On Tuesday 18th: The RBA will publish its Monetary Policy Minutes, the Chinese release their GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales, the UK will publish its employment data, German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released, Canadian CPI, and US Building Permits are also due.
On Wednesday 19th: The UK and Eurozone report CPI data and Japan publishes its trade balance.
On Thursday 20th: The US publishes its Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales, the UK’s GfK Consumer Confidence index is due, and Japan publishes CPI data.
On Friday 21st: The UK publishes Retail Sales figures while Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due for Japan, France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and the US.
Weekly outlook
A busy week is scheduled for earnings releases and economic data this week. On the list of most anticipated for company earnings would have to be Elon Musk’s Tesla Motors, who recently slashed retail prices of some of its vehicle models in the US again. According to Zacks Consensus Estimate, the EV manufacturer is anticipated to announce quarterly profits of $0.85 per share in its next report, indicating a change of -20.6% from the previous year's results.
Key economic data from the UK is likely to fuel further tightening of monetary policy, as Employment Data, Consumer Sentiment, CPI, and Retail Sales figures show a gloomy outlook. According to a recent study from the International Monetary Fund, the UK is set to be one of the G7 countries with the worst performing economies in 2023. Although the IMF marginally raised its previous prediction, it still expects the UK economy to decline this year. The Fund highlighted the escalating consequences of high energy prices, persistent inflation, and financial concerns from rising interest rates as factors contributing to the UK's significant headwinds.
Monday 17th of April
The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index has been on a downward trend in recent months and plunged to -24.6 in March from -5.8 in February. Consensus estimates see the index remaining in negative territory at -15 for April when the report is released at 12:30PM GMT.
Major Earnings Report:
Charles Schwab Corp
Tuesday 18th of April
The Reserve Bank of Australia releases its Monetary Policy Minutes at 1:30 AM GMT, two weeks following the most recent pause in interest rate increases. The board suggested it was prepared to restart tightening policy again if the economy required it, and the decision came as a result of its attempts to account for a lag in the effects of the hikes.
Chinese GDP for the first quarter is due to be published at 2:00 AM GMT today. With a growth rate of 3% in 2022, the economy saw one of the worst expansions in almost half a century and fell well short of expectations. With the country continuing to emerge from the strict pandemic policies of recent times, forecasts are for a 3.2% growth rate for the first three months of this year.
Industrial output in China increased 2.4% year-over-year in January and February this year, higher than the 1.3% increase seen in December 2022 but lower than market assumptions. When the report for March is published at 2:00 AM GMT, expectations are for a bump to 2.7% year over year.
China's retail sales rose 3.5% in January-February, reversing December's 1.8% drop. Once again, showing a boost from the lifting of the pandemic policy at the end of 2022. Another increase to 4.5% is anticipated when the March figures are released at 2:00 AM GMT.
The UK publishes key employment data at 6:00 AM GMT today, including the Unemployment Rate and Claimant Count Change, among others. The Unemployment Rate is expected to rise slightly from 3.7% to 3.8%, while the Claimant Count Change, which is the number of people claiming for unemployment benefits, is anticipated to decrease from -11.2K in February to -9.5K in March.
Partly due to high levels of uncertainty in the worldwide financial markets, the ZEW Index of Economic Sentiment for Germany dropped from 15.1 points the month prior, to 13 in March. A slight rebound to 15 is anticipated from the index for April, published at 9:00 AM GMT.
Canada's annual inflation rate dropped to 5.2% in February, the lowest since January 2022 and below market estimates. For the March data published at 12:30 PM GMT, estimates are for a further decline to 4.1% year over year as the lag in monetary policy tightening is beginning to work itself out.
In February, US building permits rose to a five-month high of 1.55 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. Both single-family and multi-segment categories were revised upward at the time. The expected preliminary numbers show a dip to 1.45 million when the report is made public at 12:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Reports:
Johnson & Johnson
Bank of America Corp
Netflix
Lockheed Martin
Goldman Sachs
Faurecia
Wednesday 19th of April
The annual inflation rate in the UK increased unexpectedly in February, from January's 10.1% to 10.4%, the first rise in four months and more than the forecasted 9.9%. When the most recent report is released at 6:00 AM GMT, it is anticipated there may only be a slight reduction to 10.2% which will make for an interesting monetary policy meeting coming up on the 11th of May for the Bank of England.
Meanwhile, in the Eurozone, the final year-over-year Inflation Rate for March is expected to come in at 6.9%, down from the previous 8.5%, and the lowest level since February 2022. Watch out for this report released by Eurostat at 9:00 AM GMT.
In February, Japan's trade deficit rose to JPY 897.7 billion from JPY 711.5 billion a year earlier. That deficit was the largest on record for February and the 19th consecutive month of shortfalls. For the report due at 11:50 AM GMT, the anticipated deficit will be around JPY 800 billion for March.
Major Earnings Reports:
Tesla Motors
ASML Holding
Abbott Laboratories
Morgan Stanley
IBM
L’Oréal
Heineken
Thursday 20th of April
The US Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index is due at 12:30 PM GMT today. Having increased by 1 point to -23.2 in March, the result fell short of market estimates of -15.6. Expectations are for an increase to -18 for April.
An increase of 14.5%- the largest monthly percentage increase since July 2020- was seen in existing home sales in the United States this past February. When the most recent report is published at 2:00 PM GMT, the number of sales for single-family homes, townhouses, condominiums, and co-ops is expected to dip back to 4.49 million from 4.58 million.
The UK GfK Consumer Confidence index increased to -36 in March from -38 in February, meeting market expectations and marking the strongest result in a year amid improved economic prospects. April’s result published at 11:00 AM GMT is expected to still be sitting significantly below zero at -34, showing a prolonged drop in confidence as personal finances are being stretched.
Japan's annual inflation rate decreased to 3.3% in February from January's 41-year peak of 4.3%. A further drop is expected to 3.2% when the report is published for March at 11:30 AM GMT.
Major Earnings Reports:
TSM
Philip Morris International
AT&T
Union Pacific
American Express
EssilorLuxottica
Pernod Ricard
Publicis
Renault
Ipsos
Friday 21st of April
Against expectations of a 0.2% gain, retail sales in the UK surprisingly increased 1.2% month-over-month in February, after a downwardly revised 0.9% increase in January. For the March figures released at 6:00 AM GMT, expectations are for a decline to -0.5%.
A collection of Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due across the day for Japan, France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and the US. If the index is more than 50.0, the sector is expanding; otherwise, it is seen as contracting. PMIs are provided in two forms: Flash and Final, with the former generally having more impact and the latter arriving around a week after. Expected results for the day’s reports reflect the gloomy economic global mood at present. Many of which are forecast to be at or below 50.
Major Earnings Reports:
Procter & Gamble Co
Sandvik AB
SAP
Newmont Mining Corp
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.