On Monday 3rd: The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI is published, along with Final Manufacturing PMIs for Japan, Spain, Switzerland, Italy, France, Germany, the EU, UK, Canada, and the US.
On Tuesday 4th: The RBA meets on Monetary Policy and Germany reports its Trade Balance.
On Wednesday 5th: Final Services PMIs are due for Japan, Spain, Switzerland, Italy, France, Germany, the EU, UK, Canada, and the US, the ADP Employment Change is published and the US and Canada also release their Trade Balances.
On Thursday 6th: Canada reports employment data and the Ivey PMI.
On Friday 7th: The US publishes its employment data including Nonfarm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
Weekly outlook
Another fairly quiet week in economic news this week as some of the turmoil in the banking industry begins to ease and investors breathe a small sigh of relief.
Of the major items to watch this week will be the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting, which mortgage holders will be hoping includes a pause in the tightening cycle. A high percentage of Aussies that bought during the boom time of the pandemic soon face their home loans switching from low fixed rates to more recently much higher variable rates. This presents a looming ‘mortgage cliff’ situation, where many will be forced to make tough choices about their budgets, and it will surely impact spending habits in a hurry.
The US Non-farm Payrolls are also on the agenda this week and many will be watching to see if stubbornly tight labor market conditions will be starting to decline soon, as the Federal Reserve continues in its pursuit of controlling inflation with the use of higher interest rates.
Monday 3rd of April
The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI is due at 1:45 AM GMT today. Having risen to 51.6 in February from 49.2 the previous month, economists attribute the result to the change in COVID policy, as manufacturing activity rose for the first time since July. A slight rise to 51.7 is expected for March.
Final Manufacturing PMIs are due for a number of other major economies across the day, including Japan, Spain, Switzerland, Italy, France, Germany, the EU, the UK, Canada, and the US. Notably, Germany, the EU, and the UK expect slight falls after months of similar sluggish results, while the US is expected to remain below par at 49.3 for its Global Manufacturing PMI and 47.1 for its ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Tuesday 4th of April
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Monetary Policy this morning with the board’s statement released at 4:30 AM GMT. After ten consecutive Official Cash Rate increases, it’s thought that the bank may consider a pause at this meeting to assess the impact on the economy. The current rate stands at 3.60% after a 25 basis points rise at the February meeting.
Germany's trade surplus increased significantly from EUR 10.0 billion to EUR 16.7 billion in January this year. Sales increased to the EU by 0.7 percent and to nations outside the EU by 3.8 percent, driving exports up by 2.1 percent. When the February report is released at 6:00 AM GMT, it’s expected there will be a further bump in the surplus to EUR 17.4 billion.
Wednesday 5th of April
Final Services PMIs are due for a number of major economies throughout the day, including Japan, Spain, Switzerland, Italy, France, Germany, the EU, the UK, Canada, and the US. There are positive forecasts across the board for March, as the majority of countries maintain levels above 50 which indicates expansion in the sector.
The ADP National Employment Report, which tracks the monthly shift in private sector employment based on the payroll records of around 400,000 companies in the United States, is due at 12:15 PM GMT. The report is used as a precursor to the government's Labor Market Report, which comes out two days later. With the private sector adding 242K jobs in February, it’s expected that 200K positions will have been created in March.
Canada's January trade surplus increased from the revised surplus of CAD 1.2 billion to CAD 1.92 billion. When the most recent report is released for February at 12:30 PM GMT, it’s expected that the balance will have switched to show a deficit of CAD 200 million.
Compared to market expectations of a $68.9 billion gap, the US trade deficit expanded marginally to a three-month high of $68.3 billion in January from a downwardly revised $67.2 billion in December. For the February data, due at 12:30 PM GMT, forecasters see the gap growing further to $68.6 billion.
Thursday 6th of April
Canada is due to publish a range of employment data today at 12:30 PM GMT, including the Unemployment Rate and Employment Change among others.
In February, Canada's unemployment rate remained at 5%, close to the record-low of 4.9% seen in June and July 2022 and contradicting the BoC's prediction that sluggish economic growth would have squeezed the employment market by now. The forecast for March, however, is expected to show an increase to 5.4%. 10 thousand jobs are also expected to have been created for March, according to the Employment Change data.
Also from Canada, the Ivey PMI is due to be published at 2:00 PM GMT. The Index dropped to 51.6 in February from the preceding month's 60.1. According to the most recent data, Canada's economy grew at a significantly slower clip in February, as the rate at which new jobs were created slowed. Forecasters see the March Index dropping below par to 49.
Friday 7th of April
US Employment data is due out at 12:30 PM GMT today, including Non-farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
After a downwardly revised 504K in January, the US economy surprisingly produced 311K jobs in February, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics report, which was well above market expectations. Consensus estimates are looking at a 240K increase for March and a 3.6% Unemployment Rate.
Despite expectations that US private nonfarm payrolls' average hourly wage would stay flat at 0.3% in February, it actually increased by only 8 cents, or 0.2%, to $33.09. The lowest amount of growth in around a year. Forecasts are again for 0.3% increase for March.
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