On Monday 20th: German PPI is due, plus the EU’s current account.
On Tuesday 21st: Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, German and EU ZEW Indexes, Canadian CPI figures and the Existing Home Sales for the US are all due.
On Wednesday 22nd: UK CPI data is published, the BoC releases monetary policy minutes, and the FOMC will meet on Monetary Policy.
On Thursday 23rd: BoE meets on Monetary Policy and US New Home Sales are published.
On Friday 24th: The UK’s GfK Consumer Confidence index, UK Retail sales, Flash PMI’s for France, Germany, the UK, the EU and the US are due, plus US Durable Goods Orders.
Weekly outlook
Dominating this week’s economic news will be all things interest rates, as Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada while the Bank of England and Federal Reserve meet this week to set their policy for the coming period.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested to legislators in Congress recently that the Central Bank is prepared to move in greater increments if incoming information signals harsher measures are required to manage inflation, as a result of recent data. The head of the US Central Bank implied in opening comments before the Senate Banking Committee that interest rates will eventually rise to a higher level than had been originally predicted.
That being said, however, according to some economists, the world's most powerful Central Banks may have been given reason to consider halting the increase of their interest rates after the Silicon Valley Bank disaster occurred last week. Due to mounting indications of financial stress brought on by the sharp rises in borrowing prices over the previous year, the 40 year old institution was brought to its knees in a matter of days as investors pulled their capital in droves.
Monday 20th of March
German producer prices (PPI) fell by 1% in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of declines. Expectations are for a slight bump of 0.4% for February when the report is released at 7:00 AM GMT.
In December 2022, the Euro Area's trade deficit was €8.8 billion, showing little change from the previous year. From the report published at 10:00 AM GMT, the deficit is forecast to grow to €28.5 billion for January this year.
Tuesday 21st of March
The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from its last gathering held earlier this month. The meeting resulted in the 10th consecutive increase to the official cash rate which is now up to 3.60%. The minutes, shared at 12:30 AM GMT, will provide clarification into the decision making process and may help to provide insight for future policy.
ZEW Economic Sentiment Indexes are published at 10:00 AM GMT for both the EU and Germany today. Sentiment for the Euro Area rose from 16.7 in January to 29.7 in February this year, while forecasts are for a slight drop to 29.1 for March.The German Index also increased from the previous month, up to 28.1 in February - the highest reading in a year. Expectations are for a slight drop to 28 in March.
Canadian inflation is slowly declining according to the three most recent annualised CPI reports. Data for February, which is due out at 12:30 PM GMT, is expected to show a drop from 5.9% to 5.2%, while Core Inflation is forecast to slow to 4.3% from 5% for the same period.
Existing Home Sales for the US are expected to have increased slightly for the February figures due out at 2:00 PM GMT. It would break a twelve month trend of decreases when in February 2022 the number of sales was almost 6.5 million. A bump from 4 million to 4.17 million is the consensus estimate.
Wednesday 22nd of March
The UK's annual inflation rate dropped to 10.1% in January from 10.5% in December last year. It’s hoped the annual rate of inflation will drop for the fourth straight month to 9.6% when the report is released at 7:00 AM GMT.
The Bank of Canada releases its minutes at 5:30 PM GMT from its most recent Monetary Policy Meeting which yielded an unchanged 4.5% interest rate. Investors will be looking for statements in regards to the future of Canadian interest rates from this document.
The Federal Reserve's much anticipated Monetary Policy Meeting concludes with its statement released at 6:00 PM GMT, while the Press Conference will be held at 6:30 PM GMT today. Fed Chair Powell’s most recent statements to Congress gave the impression that rate hikes could continue to be aggressive for the FOMC to reach its goal of 2% inflation. Expectations are for a further increase of 25 basis points to 5% on the back of stronger than anticipated economic data.
Thursday 23rd of March
The Bank of England meets on Monetary Policy today, with its statement released at 12:00 PM GMT. In February, the bank voted 7-2 to increase interest rates by 50 basis points to 4%, raising borrowing costs to their highest level since late 2008. A further increase to 4.25% is expected from this meeting.
After an upwardly revised 7.2% increase in December, sales of new single-family homes in the US increased month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 670K in January. This was the strongest number since March of last year, suggesting that the housing market could be on the path to stabilizing. In this latest New Home Sales report, released at 2:00 PM GMT, expectations are for a slight drop to 638K.
Friday 24th of March
In February 2023, the GfK Consumer Confidence index in the UK increased to -38 from -45 the month before, the highest level since April 2022. Another slight increase is expected up to -36 when the report is released at 12:01 AM GMT indicating that the British public feels more positive about their own economic situations as well as the country’s.
In January, retail sales in the UK rose 0.5% month-over-month, recovering after a downwardly revised 1.2% decrease in December. The trend is forecast to continue as another bump is expected of 1.2% for February when the report is released at 7:00 AM GMT.
Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due today between 8:15 AM and 1:45 PM GMT for France, Germany, the EU, the UK and the US. Purchasing managers' activity is measured by these indexes, with the sector showing expansion above 50 and contraction below 50. Traders closely monitor these surveys because purchasing managers often have early access to company performance data, which can lead to economic performance. The forecasted results are mixed, but generally moving towards more positive territory across the board.
U.S. Durable Goods Orders, which is defined as those expected to last three years or more, fell 4.5% month-over-month in January, the worst drop since April 2020 and reversing a downwardly revised 5.1% increase in December. When the most up to date report is released at 12:30 PM GMT, it's expected to show another drop of 4%.
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