On Monday 13th: The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index in Australia is due.
On Tuesday 14th: Australian NAB business confidence index is due, the UK publishes employment data, and CPI reports are due from the US.
On Wednesday 15th: Industrial Production from China, French CPI data, US PPI and Retail Sales, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index and New Zealand GDP are all due.
On Thursday 16th: Australian Employment figures, US Building permits, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index are due, plus the ECB meets on monetary policy.
On Friday 17th: EU CPI data, and the US University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index are both due.
Weekly outlook
A busy week for markets and investors during mid-March with expectations for a host of positive and neutral results that will help ease the fears many have of a global recession. The IMF forecasted that several countries will enter a recession this year and that global growth would slow this year in its January publication of the world economic outlook.
However, while recession worries are still widespread, several important economies show signs of recovery. Throughout the first two months of the year, business activity in the Euro Zone has risen somewhat thanks to declining energy costs, improved supply chains, and a mild winter. The IMF also increased its forecast for China's growth in 2023 to 5.2%, and the early economic indicators are encouraging so far.
All eyes will be on the ECB on Thursday, as it meets to set interest rates for the coming period. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated on Sunday what she had indicated at the last Governing Council meeting, which was that a 50 basis-point hike was "very very likely" to occur next week.
Monday 13th of March
The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index in Australia is due at 11:30 PM GMT today, and tracks consumer economic confidence. Pessimism is acknowledged as being below 100.0, whereas optimism is accepted as being above 100 based on a study of 1,200 consumers rates of past and future economic circumstances. Cost-of-living concerns and interest rate hikes sent the Index down 6.9% to 78.5 in February, the lowest level in three months and the expectation for March is a slight recovery to 79.1.
Tuesday 14th of March
As of January this year, Australia's NAB business confidence index was sitting at 6, up 6 points from the previous month and close to its long-term average. For this index, a number higher than zero indicates improving conditions, lower than zero usually means conditions are worsening. The forecast for the month of February is for a sight drop to 5 when the report is released at 12:30 AM GMT.
UK employment data is due today at 7:00 AM GMT including the Unemployment Rate, Claimant Count Change, Employment Change and Average Earnings. The labor market looks to be holding steady despite monetary policy slowly working its way through the economy.
The Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 3.8% from 3.7%, while the number of people claiming unemployment benefits is expected to continue falling, with 27 000 fewer claims forecast for February. Average earnings and bonuses are also on an upward trajectory and expectations for the three months to January are for a 6.6% increase. Lastly, the number of jobs created in the three months to January is forecast to climb by 40 thousand.
Annualized core consumer prices for January in the United States fell to 5.6%, the lowest in over a year. Expectations are for the level to remain the same for February on all items excluding volatile commodities like food and energy when the report comes out at 12:30 PM GMT. Released at the same time is the inflation rate on all items which is expected to decrease slightly from 6.4% to 6.2%.
Wednesday 15th of March
China's annualized industrial production report for January/February is due at 2:00 AM GMT today. Rising 1.3% in December last year, the index fell from the previous 2.2% in November and predictions are for a 2.6% rise in this coming report.
France releases its confirmed annualized inflation figures for February at 7:45 AM GMT which will likely reveal that the rate may have jumped for a second consecutive month, from 6% in January to 6.2% in February. Increases in the prices of manufactured goods, services, and food have been observed recently, while energy inflation has moderated somewhat.
In January this year, the United States had a 0.7% month-over-month rise in producer prices (PPI), the largest increase in seven months and far higher than market expectations of 0.4%. Consensus estimates for the report released at 12:30 AM GMT has this figure back at 0.3% growth for February. Published at the same time, retail sales figures in the US surged by 3% over January, the highest monthly gain since March 2021, but the most recent report estimates have that figure coming back to 0.3% growth.
The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index increased by 27.1 points in January from December and to -5.8 in February, indicating a slower rate of economic activity contraction in New York State. Expectations are for further positive moves to -2 for March when the report is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
In the third quarter of 2022, New Zealand's GDP grew by 6.4 percent from a year earlier, accelerating from the previously reported 0.3 percent rise but above market expectations. A dip to 2.9% is expected for the most recent quarter when the report is published at 9:45 PM GMT.
Thursday 16th of March
The Australian Employment change for February is published at 12:30 AM GMT today. After a corrected 19,900 dip a month earlier, employment unexpectedly fell by 11,500, to 13.72 million, in January 2023. After an extremely tight labor market was seen throughout 2022, growth of 51,000 jobs is expected for February and the unemployment rate is also expected to fall to 3.6% from 3.7%.
Although high inflation and increasing borrowing rates continued to weigh on demand for new homes, building permits in the United States increased by 0.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.339 million in January, maintaining close to December's 31-month low. A slight drop to 1.33 million is expected for February when the report is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US fell to -24.3 in February from -8.9 in January this year. It was the lowest rating for manufacturing activity since May 2020 and the sixth consecutive month that it stayed below the positive conditions represented by zero and above. An increase for March is expected to bring it up to -2 when the report comes out at 12:30 PM GMT.
The European Central Bank meets on monetary policy today, with its report released at 1:15 PM GMT, and Press Conference to follow at 1:45 PM GMT. After five straight increases to interest rates and four to the Deposit Facility Rate, it is expected that a collection of recent economic data will pressure the ECB to increase both by 50 basis points to 3.5% and 3% respectively.
Friday 17th of March
A preliminary estimate revealed that consumer price inflation in the Euro Area dipped to 8.5% in February 2023, the lowest rate since May of last year. As a result of this most recent statistic, the ECB will more than likely be forced to maintain its hawkish stance for the foreseeable future, since there are still many indications that inflationary pressure remains strong in Europe. The final report is due at 10:00 AM GMT.
The preliminary February reading of 66.4 on the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for the US was revised higher to a reading of 67 in March, the highest reading since January 2022. A slight rise to 67.5 is expected when the report is released at 2:00 PM GMT.
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