On Monday 27th: German Ifo Business Climate Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index are both due.
On Tuesday 28th: Australian Retail Sales and the US CB Consumer Confidence index are published.
On Wednesday 29th: The German GfK Consumer Climate Indicator and US Pending Monthly Home Sales are due.
On Thursday 30th: German CPI and US quarterly GDP are released.
On Friday 31st: The Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI is released, CPI data for France, the EU, and Italy are due, and the US PCE along with Personal Spending and Personal Income are published.
Weekly outlook
Given the last two weeks have been plagued by dire warnings of a repeat of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and the consequent panic has resulted in the wiping out of half a trillion dollars from the value of banks throughout the world, investors will no doubt be asking themselves, “What’s next!?” this week.
From an economic data release standpoint, this upcoming week is fairly quiet, and most major Q1 earnings are still a few weeks away. There is however, plenty of inflation-related data coming out around the globe, most of which is mercifully pointing toward improving conditions as many of the major central banks continue tightening their policy to achieve the ever-elusive 2% target rate.
Monday 27th of March
From a negatively revised 90.1 in January, the Ifo Business Climate index for Germany improved to an eight-month high of 91.1 in February this year. The index, which tracks how businesses perceive the present and future state of the German economy, is based on a survey of manufacturers, contractors, wholesalers, and retailers. Expectations are for a slight improvement again to 91.5 for March, when the report is published at 8:00 AM GMT.
In February this year, the general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas fell 5.1 points, to -13.5, from -8.4. This decline in activity has been observed for 10 consecutive months now, and expectations are for the figure to remain in negative territory at -10 for March when the new data is released at 2:30 PM GMT.
Tuesday 28th of March
Recent January Retail Sales in Australia increased by 1.9% to AUD 35.09 billion, reversing the 4% decline seen in December 2022. The February data is due to be published at 12:30 AM GMT, and despite rising prices and the growing cost of living across the country, expectations are for 0.5% growth.
The Conference Board's (CB) Consumer Confidence index is due at 2:00 PM GMT and is forecast to show a slight decline from 102.9 to 101 for March. The index tracks the level of consumer confidence in the US economy. As an uptick in consumer spending and general economic expansion is seen when people are feeling optimistic, this report is closely watched by investors.
Wednesday 29th of March
The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany increased to -30.5 in March from a slightly revised -33.8 in February. The most recent rating, which indicated a sixth consecutive month of improvement amid falling oil costs and confidence that the nation will escape a recession, was the highest since July 2022. Expectations are for a further improvement to -28 when the report is published at 6:00 AM GMT.
US Pending Monthly Home Sales data is due at 2:00 PM GMT, and are expected to have grown by 1.0% for February after a surprising increase of 8.1% month over month in January. Increases in contract signings across all four main U.S. regions have been taking place in the last few months as buyers take advantage of lower mortgage rates in December and January, making homes more affordable.
Thursday 30th of March
German CPI figures are due to be released at 12:00 PM GMT today. Germany’s annual inflation rate in February was 8.7%, not far from the peak of 8.8% reached in October and November, and still much higher than the 2% target. Expectations are for a slight decline to 8.4% for March.
Quarter-over-quarter growth in the United States’ GDP will show that growth slowed to 2.7% in Q4 2022, down from the advance forecast of 2.9% and the previous quarter’s 3.2% growth when the final report is published at 12:30 PM GMT.
Friday 31st of March
In February, the official NBS Manufacturing PMI climbed from 50.1 to 52.6. With Beijing's recent decision to abandon a zero-COVID policy, industry activity increased for the second consecutive month at its strongest rate in over a decade. When the report is released at 1:30 AM GMT, it’s expected that the PMI will show a slight decline to 51.2.
France's annual inflation rate increased to 6.3% in February from 6% in January, rising to its highest rate since the mid 1980’s. When the new annualized CPI data for March is released at 6:45 AM GMT, it’s hoped that the figure will have dropped to 5.5%, while a drop to 0.9% from the previous 1% is expected for the monthly rate.
When CPI in the Euro Area was confirmed at 8.5% year-on-year in February, it was the lowest rate since May of last year. It’s expected that, when the report is released at 9:00 AM GMT, the rate will have fallen to around 7.8% for March, while Core Inflation is forecast to drop from 5.6% to 5.5%.
A promising drop of the Italian inflation rate is expected for March when the report is released at 9:00 AM GMT. The figure for February was revised downward to 9.1% as price reductions for regulated energy goods led to the lowest inflation rate since September 2022. It's hoped there will be a further drop to 8.4% this month.
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) that exclude food and energy grew 0.6% month-over-month in January, which was the largest jump since August 2022. A 0.6% growth is expected for February when the report is released at 12:30 PM GMT. February Personal Spending and Personal Income are also forecast to have grown for the month, in reports due at the same time.
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