On Monday 11th: Swiss Consumer Confidence is published.
On Tuesday 12th: The Australian NAB Business Confidence Index is due, along with UK Employment figures and US Inflation data.
On Wednesday 13th: UK GDP figures and Manufacturing and Industrial Production for the UK are all due.
On Thursday 14th: US PPI and Core PPIs are due, as well as US Retail Sales.
On Friday 15th: Canadian Housing Starts and the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index for the US are due.
Weekly outlook
A fairly quiet week this week, but a few decent reports to track for investors and traders all the same. The US will put out some important data in the lead up to the next FOMC meeting on the 20th March, including Inflation figures, PPIs, and Retail Sales among others.
Just this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in prepared comments for visits on Capitol Hill that policymakers are still concerned about the dangers posed by inflation and do not want to relax too rapidly. Powell suggested that decreasing rates too soon risks losing the fight against inflation and maybe having to increase rates further, whilst waiting too long risks jeopardizing economic growth. He did hint that rate cuts will likely happen at some point later this year, though. Let's see what impact the new data has!
Monday 11th of March
Switzerland's Consumer Confidence Index rose to -41 in January 2024, up from a revised -53 in October but still much lower than the long-term average. The reading showed a reduction in consumers' fears about the strength of both their own financial circumstances and the general economy in the coming months, compared to the prior quarter. A further improvement to around -36 is expected for February when the results are released at 8:00 AM GMT.
● Oracle
Tuesday 12th of March
Australia's NAB business confidence index, due at 12:30 AM GMT, increased to 1 in January from a corrected zero in the previous month. The recovery was mostly driven by the manufacturing and construction sectors, while confidence in wholesale and retail declined. The February reading is expected to come in lower at around -1.
UK Employment figures will be updated for January today. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the unemployment rate decreased to 3.8%, which was lower than the 4.0% rate in the previous three months and slightly below the market's expected rate of 4.0%. Meanwhile, the number of employed individuals increased by 72,000 in the three months leading up to December 2023. This was slightly below the market's anticipated rise of 73,000 and followed a revised gain of 108,000 in the previous period. The new figures will be available from 7:00 AM GMT.
US Inflation data will be published today for February. In January 2024, the US annual inflation rate decreased to 3.1% from 3.4% in December, slightly above forecasts. January also saw the annual core consumer price inflation rate in the US remain constant from the previous month at 3.9%, surpassing market expectations of 3.7%. The new figures are due for release at 12:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Assicurazioni Generali
● Maison du Monde
Wednesday 13th of March
A range of data from the UK is due to be released from 7:00 AM GMT today, including GDP and Manufacturing and Industrial Production figures among others. Following a 0.2% gain in November and below predictions of a 0.2% decline, the British economy contracted 0.1% year over year in December 2023. The forecast for January is for a flat reading compared to December. Month over month Industrial and Manufacturing Production is expected to be down -0.3% each compared to the previous month.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Adidas
Thursday 14th of March
A variety of new data is due from the US today at 12:30 PM GMT, including PPI figures and Retail Sales among others. After falling 0.1% in December and missing estimates of 0.1%, US Producer Prices for final demand increased 0.3% month over month in January, the largest gain in five months. Meanwhile, although market forecasts were for a 0.1% gain, Core Producer Prices in the US, which do not include food and energy expenses, increased 0.5% month over month in January, reversing a 0.1% decline the previous month. The new readings are expected to come in at around 0.3% and 0.2% growth respectively.
Also in January, US retail sales decreased by 0.8% month over month, which was worse than the 0.1% decline predicted by the market and marked a reversal from December's downwardly revised 0.4% increase. Due mostly to the cold weather and the aftermath of the Christmas shopping season, retail sales have dropped to their lowest point since March of last year. However, forecasts are for a rise for February to around 0.3% growth.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Dollar General
● Bolloré
● Biomérieux
Friday 15th of March
Housing starts in Canada fell 10% from a month earlier to 223,589 units in January, falling short of market forecasts of 235,000 units, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. The new data for February, due at 12:15 PM GMT, is expected to show a drop to around 220,000 units.
The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index for the US was lowered down to 76.9 in February, down from 79.6 in January. The new preliminary report, due at 2:00 PM GMT, is expected to show a jump to around 78.
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