On Monday 6th: Services PMIs for Japan, Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the EU are due, along with Canada’s Ivey Purchasing Managers Index
On Tuesday 7th: China and the US Trade Balances are due, while the RBA meets on Monetary Policy
On Wednesday 8th: German Inflation figures are released, and the BoC publishes its Summary of Deliberations
On Thursday 9th: Chinese Inflation data including Producer Prices are released.
On Friday 10th: Preliminary UK GDP data is released as well as the Preliminary University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for the US.
Weekly Outlook
A fairly quiet week for economic news across the globe this week, certainly compared to others just recently. In addition, many of the big earnings reports have all come and gone, although there are a few that many investors enjoy keeping a close eye on. One of which is Disney, and while investors will be hoping to see increased streaming and parks admissions revenue, some are remaining cautious. According to Zacks Investment Research, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.69, based on the projections of ten analysts. For the same quarter last year, reported earnings per share were $0.3.
Investors will also be closely watching for when the RBA meets this week. Last week, the Aussie dollar had a significant bump due to speculation that the United States' interest rates have reached their highest point, while there is an anticipation that the RBA has not yet completed its process of tightening monetary policy and may initiate a rate adjustment as early as the next week. This recent strength may place pressure on the board to implement an increase in order to preserve the gains made against high inflation.
Monday 6th of November
Services PMIs are due for a number of countries across the day today, including Japan, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the EU. While the service industry had been enjoying strong growth in recent years following the pandemic, many countries are seeing a gradual decline in their indexes as monetary policy conditions have tightened. Most forecasts this week expect levels below the par level of 50 for October.
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index in Canada decreased to 53.1 in September, from 53.5 in August, and surpassed market expectations. The most recent reading indicated a second consecutive month of modest economic expansion, albeit at a slower rate, primarily due to a decline in inventories. When the newest data is made available at 3:00 PM GMT, analysts expect a further decline to around 52.1.
Major Earnings Releases:
● TripAdvisor Inc (TRIP)
● Eurofins Scientific SE (EUFI)
Tuesday 7th of November
Although China's trade surplus in September was USD 77.71 billion, down from USD 82.67 billion in the same period in 2022, it still beat market expectations of USD 70 billion due to the fact that both exports and imports fell at the same rate. This reflected the country's persistently weak demand at home and abroad. The new report, which is due at 3:00 AM GMT, is expected to show an increase in the surplus to around 81.0 billion for October.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is due to meet for its November Monetary Policy Meeting this week, with the decision statement to be released at 3:30 AM GMT today. According to the minutes from its most recent meeting, the RBA debated raising cash rates in October but ultimately opted to keep them stable for the fourth consecutive month. During Michele Bullock's first monetary policy meeting as governor, members remarked the monthly CPI index showed that progress in decreasing services price inflation in the country remained modest. Given the likelihood that inflation would continue over target for some time, they also recognized that upside risks posed a serious worry. This week, analysts expect a further pause in the cycle.
The US Trade Balance is due out today at 1:30 PM GMT. The deficit narrowed to $58.3 billion in August, the lowest level since September 2020 and less than the $62.3 billion deficit that was anticipated. The gap is expected to widen to around $60.3 billion for September.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Uber (UBER)
● UBS (UBS)
● Devon Energy Corp (DVN)
● eBay (EBAY)
● Engie (ENGIE)
● Capgemini (CAPP)
Wednesday 8th of November
Preliminary estimates for Germany’s Inflation figures are due to be confirmed today at 7:00 AM GMT. These estimates will likely reveal that annual German consumer price inflation dropped to 3.8% in October, down sharply from the 4.5% recorded in September and somewhat below the market consensus of 4%. As food inflation slowed to its lowest level since February 2022, overall inflation fell to its lowest level since August 2021.
The Bank of Canada releases its Summary of Deliberations from its most recent Monetary Policy Meetings today at 6:30 PM GMT.
The BoC emphasized that future rate decisions would be based on the most recent economic data while maintaining its goal for its overnight rate at 5% in its October 2023 meeting, keeping borrowing rates at a 22-year high as generally predicted by financial markets.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Walt Disney (DIS)
● AIRBUS (AIR.PA)
● Bayer (BAYN.DE)
● Adidas AG (ADS.DE)
● Legrand SA (LR.PA)
● Telefonica SA (TEF.MC)
● Kellogg Co (K)
● Continental AG (CON.DE)
● Airbus (AIR)
● Crédit agricole (CAGR)
● Legrand (LEGD)
● Coty (COTY)
Thursday 9th of November
Chinese Inflation data is due to be published at 1:30 AM GMT today. China's consumer prices were steady year over year in September, after a 0.1% increase the previous month and falling short of the market estimate of a 0.2% increase. The newest statistics showed continued deflationary pressures in the world's second-largest economy, heightening worries about the economic recovery's longevity owing to slow demand. However, the new data for October is expected to show growth of around 0.2% annually and 0.2% month over month.
China's producer prices have also been in decline recently, falling 2.5% year over year in September, however, moderating from the previous month's 3.0% drop. It was the twelfth consecutive month of producer deflation last month, however if forecasts are correct, there could be a slight improvement on the way to around -1.1% for October. The latest figures are due out at 1:30 AM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● AstraZeneca (AZN.L)
● Sony (SONY)
● Deutsche Telekom (DTE.DE)
● Veolia (VIE)
● JC Decaux (JCDX)
Friday 10th of November
A range of Preliminary UK GDP data is due to be released today from 7:00 AM GMT. Up from an initial estimate of 0.4% and after an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in the prior period, the United Kingdom's GDP rose by 0.6% year over year in the second quarter of 2023. Forecasts for the third quarter are suggesting a dip to around -0.6% year over year and 0.1% growth for the month of September.
In October, the preliminary reading of 63 for the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for the US was revised upwards to 63.80. Nonetheless, the result represented a significant decline from the previous month's reading of 68.1 to the lowest level since May. When the new data is made available at 3:00 PM GMT today, economists expect a slight improvement to around 65 for November.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Allianz (ALV.DE)
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