On Monday 13th: The Australian Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index is due to be published.
On Tuesday 14th: The NAB business confidence index for Australia is due, along with UK Employment data, Germany’s ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment Index, US Inflation data and Japanese GDP figures.
On Wednesday 15th: Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales are due, plus UK Inflation figures, US Producer Prices and Retail Sales, and the Japanese Balance of Trade.
On Thursday 16th: Australian Employment data and the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index are due.
On Friday 17th: UK Retail Sales, Euro Area Inflation and US Building Permits are due to be released.
Weekly outlook
After a slowish start to the week, there’s plenty to keep investors occupied after Monday. Some of the big names in the bricks and mortar and online retail world are reporting their earnings this coming week too. Home Depot and Walmart are due from the US, and Tencent and Alibaba are also out this week, among many others. Investors will be looking for how interest rate rises have been impacting consumers' buying power and if many are transitioning their normal spending to more discount retailers.
A focus will also likely be on Inflation figures being released around the world this week. While the UK and the EU are finally starting to see better results coming through, the US seems to have stagnated and may encourage more moves from the Federal Reserve when the next meeting happens next month.
Monday 13th of November
The Australian Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index increased 2.9% from 79.7 in September to 82 in October, marking the highest level in six months. However, it is still quite negative and is forecast to worsen given the RBA's recent rate rise. The newest data for November is due today at 11:30 PM GMT.
Tuesday 14th of November
The NAB business confidence index for Australia remained at 1 in September, unchanged for the third consecutive month but remaining considerably below average. The October results, due at 12:30 AM GMT, are expected to show a dip to -1.
A range of Employment data from the UK is due to be released this morning. The number of people employed in the country fell by 207 thousand in June, while another expected drop of 185 thousand is expected for August. Meanwhile, in the three months to August, UK average weekly wages, including bonuses, rose 8.1%, the lowest in three months although still historically high. The Unemployment rate is also forecast to increase to 4.4% for September, up from 4.3%.
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany is due today at 10:00 AM GMT. The figure for October increased by 10.3 points from the previous month to reach -1.1, greatly above market predictions of -9.3. This proves to indicate that Europe's biggest economy has likely recovered from its recent dip, and forecasts for November are expected to come in at around 1.
US Inflation data is due to be reported today from 1:30 PM GMT. Despite market predictions that it would reduce slightly to 3.6%, the headline annualised inflation rate held constant at 3.7% in September. This was mostly due to a weaker reduction in energy prices offsetting slower inflationary pressures in other categories. September saw a slight decrease in the annual core inflation rate from 4.3% to 4.1%, the lowest level since September 2021. Only minor movement is expected from both rates for October, with the core rate forecast to fall to 4% and the headline rate to increase to 3.8%.
During the second quarter of 2023, the Japanese economy increased by 4.8% on an annualized basis, contrasted with preliminary figures showing a 6.0% growth and a downwardly corrected 3.2% gain in the previous period. It was however the quickest rate of growth since Q2 of 2022. The preliminary forecast for Q3 is not as strong, at -0.6%, with the result being published at 11:50 PM GMT.
Wednesday 15th of November
Amidst the recent rush of governmental efforts supporting the economic comeback, China's industrial production remained stable at 4.5% in September, retaining its highest level since April and somewhat beating market predictions of 4.3%. The October report, due at 2:00 AM GMT, is expected to show further growth to 4.8%.
Retail sales data is also due from China at 2:00 AM GMT today. The pace of growth accelerated to 5.5% in September from 4.6% in August, above market expectations of 4.9% growth. Since May, this was the most significant rise in trading activity. Further expansion is expected up to around 6.7% for October.
UK Inflation figures are due to be released at 7:00 AM GMT today. In September, the headline inflation rate held steady at 6.7%, maintaining August's 18-month low and confounding market predictions of a decline to 6.6%. This month's report however, is expected to show a decline to around 4.9%. Meanwhile the core rate is forecast to fall from 6.1% to 5.6%.
After increasing by 0.7% in August, the Producer Price Index in the US increased by 0.5% from the previous month in September, the lowest monthly increase in three months but still higher than market expectations of 0.3%. Forecasts month over month for October are for a slight rise to 0.1% when the data is released at 1:30 PM GMT.
Monthly Retail Sales are also due from the US at 1:30 PM GMT. Sales climbed 0.7% in September, after an upwardly revised 0.8% gain in August. Despite continuing price increases and higher interest rates, consumer spending seems to be holding steady, and consensus estimates expect a static 0% growth for October.
Japan's trade balance surpassed market expectations of a JPY 425 billion deficit to unexpectedly turn to a surplus of JPY 62.44 billion in September from a deficit of JPY 2,099 billion in the same period the previous year. When the new results are published at 11:50 PM GMT, expectations are for a return to a deficit of around JPY 89.0 billion.
Major Earnings Releases:
- Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)
- Alstom SA (ALO.PA)
Thursday 16th of November
Australian Employment data is due from 12:30 AM GMT this morning. In September, Australia had a 6700 rise in the number of people employed, while just shy of 25 thousand new jobs are expected to be created for October. The Unemployment rate is expected to remain the same at 3.6% this month.
Despite market expectations of a decrease to -6.4, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for the US rose to -9 in October, from -13.5 in September. A further drop to around -11 is forecast for the coming report at 1:30 PM GMT today.
Major Earnings Releases:
- Walmart (WMT)
- Alibaba (BABA)
- Siemens (SIE.DE)
- Burberry (BRBY.L)
- Vallourec (VLLP)
Friday 17th of November
UK Retail Sales figures are due to be released today from 7:00 AM GMT. In September, sales fell 0.9% month over month, which was worse than the 0.2% decrease that the market had predicted and a reversal from the 0.4% gain in August. Year over year sales also fell 1% in September.
The October inflation rate for the Euro Area is expected to be confirmed at 10:00 AM GMT today. Expectations are for a decrease to 2.9% year-on-year, achieving its lowest level since July 2021 and dropping slightly below the market consensus of 3.1%. Meanwhile, the core rate, which excludes the effects of changes in the cost of food and energy, apparently dropped to 4.2% in October, its lowest level since July 2022.
According to updated statistics, the number of building permits issued in the US fell by 4.5% from August's 10-month high of 1.541 million to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.471 million in September. Rising mortgage rates have negatively impacted the demand for housing, but the market's persistent lack of suitable properties has served to offset some of the damage. When the newest results are published at 1:30 PM GMT, expectations are for a dip to 1.45 million permits for October.
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