On Monday 30th: German Inflation figures and the Japanese Unemployment Rate are released.
On Tuesday 31st: China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI is due, along with the results from the BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting, GDP and Inflation data from France, German, Italian, Canadian and EU GDP figures, and an EU Inflation update.
On Wednesday 1st: The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI is due, along with the US ADP Employment Change, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, while the Federal Reserve will meet to set its Monetary Policy.
On Thursday 2nd: The Australian Trade Balance is due, and the Bank of England meets on Monetary Policy.
On Friday 3rd: The German Trade Balance is released, and Canadian and US Employment data is published.
Weekly Outlook
Investors are in for a big week this week as a number of much anticipated Monetary Policy meetings take place in addition to a plethora of Labor Market data that will provide insight into how countries are continuing to manage rising interest rates and higher-than-usual inflation.
Earnings season also continues to kick on, with some big names on the list this week.
In the news recently as a result of huge demand for its weight loss and diabetes drugs, Danish pharmaceutical giant, Novo Nordisk, is due to publish its report card on Thursday, after market close. The company recently revised its revenue growth projection for this year upward to 32%-38% from the prior 27%-33% range. While it is also expecting earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) growth of 40-46% for the whole year, up from the prior range of 31-37%. Zacks Investment Research's consensus quarterly EPS projection is $0.6, compared to last year's quarter EPS of $0.43.
Monday 30th of October
German inflation data is due today at 1:00 PM GMT. In September, the CPI fell to 4.5% from the previous 6.1%, the lowest level since February last year. The core rate, which excludes volatile goods like food and energy, fell to 4.6%, a one-year low. The Preliminary report for October is expected to show an annualised drop to around 4% for the headline rate.
The unemployment rate in Japan remained constant in August at 2.7%, against market expectations of 2.6%. The number of unemployed people climbed by 10,000 to 1.85 million, while the number of people with jobs rose by 50,000 to 67.50 million, keeping the unemployment rate at its highest point since March. When the new data is due at 11:30 PM GMT, the forecast is for this figure to again remain the same for September.
Major Earnings Releases:
- McDonald’s (MCD)
- HSBC (HSBC)
- Unibail-Rodamco (URW)
Tuesday 31st of October
China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI surpassed market expectations in September, rising to 50.2 from 49.7 in August. In the midst of recent assistance from Beijing to support economic recovery, it was the first increase in manufacturing activity since March. The newest data, due at 1:30 AM GMT, is predicted to show further growth to around 50.5.
The Bank of Japan is due to meet on Monetary Policy this week, with the Decision Statement and Quarterly Outlook due at 3:00 AM GMT. At its September meeting, the BoJ unanimously decided to keep the key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and the yield on 10-year bonds at about 0%. The 1.0% limit that was imposed in July and the 50bps allowance band that is placed on either side of the yield objective were both kept in place by the central bank.
A range of French economic data will be released from 6:30 AM GMT today, including those relating to GDP and Inflation. In the second quarter of 2023, the French economy grew by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter, up from a flat result in the first quarter and in line with market expectations. On an annualized basis, the second quarter GDP increased by 1%. Further growth is expected for Q3, although at a slightly lesser rate. France's annual inflation rate held at 4.9% in September, while the core rate was also unchanged at 4.6%. Forecasts are for a slight dip in the headline rate to around 4.1% for October.
Other major nations to report their Flash GDP results today include Germany, Italy, the EU and Canada among others. The highlight will be the GDP report for the EU, which grew by 0.5% annually in the second quarter of 2023, down from the prior estimate of 0.6% and the worst pace of expansion since the recessions of 2020 and Q1 2021. A further dip of around 0.3% is expected when the latest figures are released at 10:00 AM GMT.
EU Inflation is also due at 10:00 AM GMT today. In September, Euro Area inflation was 4.3%, down from August's 5.2% and the lowest since October 2021, as prices rose slower for services, non-energy industrial goods, and food, alcohol, and tobacco. In September, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, was also lower at 4.5%, the lowest since August 2022. Expectations are for the headline figure to reduce to around 3.1% for October year over year, while the core rate may fall to around 4.3%.
Major Earnings Releases:
- Pfizer (PFE)
- Caterpillar (CAT)
- BASF (BASF)
- GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC)
- Stellantis (STALM)
- Thales (TCFP)
- Bouygues (BOUY)
Wednesday 1st of November
From a six-month high of 51.0 in August, the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.6 in September, which marked the second consecutive month of growth in the industry. The October data is expected to show more growth to around 50.7 when the report is released at 1:45 AM GMT.
The US’s ADP Employment Change is due to be published at 12:15 PM GMT today. In September, private firms in the US recruited 89K workers, the fewest since January 2021. Further cementing the idea that the labor market is cooling, in October, expectations are for only 65K new jobs to be added. Meanwhile, JOLTs Job Openings have also been tapering off despite last month’s higher than expected figures. The new September figures due at 2:00 PM GMT are forecast to show a drop from 9.61M to 9.2M.
Again from the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is due at 2:00 PM GMT. The index increased in September to 49 from 47.6 the previous month, showing the smallest decline in the US manufacturing sector in 10 months. Consensus estimates see the figure remaining unchanged in October.
The Federal Reserve will meet for its Monetary Policy Meeting this week, with the Decision Statement due at 6:00 PM GMT, and Press Conference to follow at 6:30 PM GMT. In its September meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at a 22-year high of 5.25%–5.5%. Analysts expect that the central bank will again choose to hold rates steady this month.
Major Earnings Releases:
- Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)
- Airbnb (ABNB)
- GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
- PayPal (PYPL)
- American International Group (AIG)
Thursday 2nd of November
Above market expectations of a AUD 8.725 billion gain, Australia's trade surplus expanded to AUD 9.64 billion in August as exports rose and imports declined. This was up from a downwardly revised AUD 7.32 billion in July. When the new data is released at 12:30 AM GMT, however, a dip is expected, to around AUD 8.4 billion for September.
The Bank of England will meet on Monetary Policy this week, with the Decision Statement and Minutes available from 12:00 PM GMT. Following the latest inflation and labor data, which suggested that previous policy tightening may be taking effect, the BoE held its policy interest rate at 5.25% in September for the first time since the tightening cycle began almost two years ago. Expectations are for another hold this month.
Major Earnings Releases:
- Apple (AAPL)
- Shell (SHEL)
- Starbucks (SBUX)
- ING Groep (INGA.NV)
Friday 3rd of November
The German Trade Balance is due to be reported at 7: AM GMT today. In August, the trade surplus increased to EUR 16.6 billion from EUR 15.9 billion in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of EUR 15 billion. Forecasts for September are for further growth to around EUR 18 billion.
Canada reports on the state of its Labour Market from 12:30 PM GMT today, including the Unemployment Rate and Employment Change among others. Canada's unemployment rate stayed at 5.5% in August for the third month in a row, falling short of forecasts. The number indicated a slowdown in the labor market compared to the previous year, although unemployment remained much lower than it had been before the pandemic. The economy also added 63,800 new jobs in September so there are still concerns that employment is running hot.
The US is also releasing key Employment data this afternoon from 12:30 PM GMT, including the Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings for October. US employment rose by 336K in September, above market expectations of 170K and an upwardly revised 227K in August. Consensus estimates are for a dip to around 172K for this month, while the Unemployment Rate is seen to be holding steady at 3.8% and Average Earnings may also remain the same at 4.2% year over year.
Major Earnings Releases:
- BMW (BMW)
- Societe Generale (GLE)
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.