On Monday 30th: Japanese Retail Sales figures are released.
On Tuesday 31st: Retail Sales for Australia are due, as are the Chinese Manufacturing PMI, GDP and CPI figures for Germany, GDP for Canada, and the CB Consumer Confidence for the US.
On Wednesday 1st: Manufacturing PMIs are due from China, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the EU, the US and the UK, CPI data is released from the EU, ADP Nonfarm Employment figures are published, the Federal Reserve meets on monetary policy, and Employment data for New Zealand is also due.
On Thursday 2nd: Both the BoE and the ECB meet on monetary policy today.
On Friday 3rd: Services PMIs are due for China, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and the Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate for the US are also released.
Weekly outlook
Another huge week for earnings this week with the majority of the big tech companies reporting their fourth quarter performance, among others. According to Refinitiv IBES, as reported by Reuters, the technology industry is estimated to have seen a 9.1% fall in profits from the fourth quarter of a year earlier, compared to a 2.8% loss for the S&P 500 as a whole. In the midst of cutting expenses and cutting staff, will it be enough to boost the numbers as the recession looms?
Big announcements are due from the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve as they all meet to discuss monetary policy for the coming period. While inflation may have cooled slightly across the board, it may not be enough to avoid another hike in interest rates.
A whole host of Manufacturing and Services PMIs are also due across Europe and the US this week. The indices use survey findings from businesses nationwide to determine the relative performance of each sector. A value over fifty indicates sector expansion, while below fifty indicates contraction. Policymakers and traders actively monitor these results because purchasing managers often receive company performance data before the real data is released.
Monday 30th of January
23:50 GMT- Annual Retail Sales for December- Japan: The retail sector is expected to show growth of 3.0% up from 2.5% the same month last year.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Unicredit
- Pfizer
Tuesday 31st of January
00:30 GMT- Monthly Retail Sales for December- Australia: Retail sales are expected to show growth, albeit slowing from the previous month at 0.6% from 1.4%.
01:30 GMT- Manufacturing PMI for January- China: Manufacturing is forecast to increase from 47.0 to 48.0 as the country continues to recover from COVID-19 zero policies.
13:00 GMT- Monthly and Annualized CPI for January- Germany: An unwelcome increase from 8.6% to 9.0% is expected for January year on year, while a 1.2% increase is forecast for the month compared to December.
13:30 GMT- Monthly GDP for November- Canada: Expectations are for GDP figures to remain steady at 0.1% growth for the month.
15:00 GMT- CB Consumer Confidence for January- US: Consumer optimism about the economy is tracked by the Conference Board's (CB) Consumer Confidence index. An increase is expected from 108.3 to 109.4.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Exxon-Mobil
- Samsung Electronics
- Pfizer
- McDonald’s
- UPS Inc
- Amgen Inc
- Caterpillar
- AMD
- Stryker
Wednesday 1st of February
01:45 GMT- Caixin Manufacturing PMI for January- China: Manufacturing is forecast to increase from 49.0 to more positive territory above 49.5
08:15 GMT- Manufacturing PMI for January- Spain: Manufacturing is forecast to drop from 46.4 to 48
08:45 GMT- Manufacturing PMI for January- Italy: Manufacturing is forecast to increase from 48.5 to 49.6
08:50 GMT- Manufacturing PMI for January- France: Manufacturing is forecast to increase from 49.2 to 50.8.
08:55 GMT- Manufacturing PMI for January- Germany: Manufacturing is forecast to hold steady at 47.0.
09:00 GMT- Manufacturing PMI for January- EU: Manufacturing is forecast to increase from 47.8 to 48.8
09:30 GMT- Manufacturing PMI for January- UK: Manufacturing is forecast to increase from 45.3 to 46.7.
10:00 GMT- Annualised CPI for January- EU: A slight reduction from 9.2% to 9.1% in inflation will be a welcome sign to the ECB at its upcoming monetary policy meeting, but will likely not be enough to avoid a rate hike.
13:15 GMT- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for January- US: Private companies in the US added 235K jobs in December 2022, which was much more than the revised 182K jobs added in November and the 150K jobs predicted by the market. Further advancement is expected for the coming month’s report.
15:00 GMT- ISM Manufacturing PMI for January- US: Manufacturing is forecast to drop from 48.4 to 48.2.
15:00 GMT- JOLTS Job Openings for December- US: Employers provide statistics on employment, job opportunities, recruiting, hiring, and separations in this US Bureau of Labor Statistics job vacancy survey. A drop is forecast from 10.458M to 10.000M.
19:00- GMT- Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Meeting- US: Fed policymakers are mostly in agreement that the pace of tightening should be slowed during the next few meetings while the effects of the rate rises are being evaluated. Last year, the Fed increased its benchmark overnight interest rate by 425 basis points, with the majority of the increases occurring in increments of 75 and 50 basis points. This week’s meeting is expected to deliver a 25 basis point jump to 4.75%.
21:45 GMT- Quarterly Employment Change & Unemployment Rate- New Zealand: According to a poll conducted by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, business confidence touched a record low in the December quarter with some forecasts predicting this will have an impact on the currently low 3.3% Unemployment Rate and Employment Change.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Novo Nordisk
- Meta Platforms
- Thermo Fisher Scientific
- Novartis
- T-Mobile US
- GlaxoSmithKline
- Altria
Thursday 2nd of February
12:00 GMT- Bank of England Monetary Policy Meeting- UK: Since starting the current tightening cycle in December 2021, the Bank of England has raised interest rates by 340 basis points in an effort to put the brakes on inflation, which has surged to more than five times its 2% objective. It's widely expected that rates will be raised a further 50 basis points this week to 4.0%
13:15 GMT- European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting- EU: Despite hiking interest rates at their quickest pace on record for the euro zone, the ECB has so far been unable to bring inflation anywhere close to its 2% target. CPI increased 9.2% from a year earlier in December. With more work to do this year, it's expected that interest rates will rise by 50 basis points from 2.5% to 3.0% this coming week.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Alibaba Group
- Apple
- Alphabet
- Amazon.com
- Eli Lilly & Co
- Merck & Co
- Shell
- ConocoPhillips
- Qualcomm
- Microstrategy
Friday 3rd of February
01:45 GMT- Caixin Services PMI for January- China: The Service industry is forecast to increase from the previous 48.0.
08:15 GMT- Services PMI for January- Spain: The Service industry is forecast to drop from the previous 51.6.
08:45 GMT- Services PMI for January- Italy: The Service industry is forecast to increase from the previous 49.9.
08:50 GMT- Services PMI for January- France: The Service industry is forecast to drop from 49.5 to 49.2.
08:55 GMT- Services PMI for January- Germany: The Service industry is forecast to increase from 49.2 to 50.04
09:00 GMT- Services PMI for January- EU: The Service industry is forecast to increase from 49.8 to 50.7
09:30 GMT- Services PMI for January- UK: The Service industry is forecast to drop from 49.9 to 48.
13:30 GMT- Nonfarm Payrolls for January- US: Nonfarm Payrolls tracks the change in employment from the previous month excluding farm work. Full employment is watched closely by the Federal Reserve and helps form monetary policy decisions. Expectations are for a drop from 223K to 175K.
13:30 GMT- Unemployment Rate for January- US: A slight increase in the Unemployment Rate is expected for January, up to 3.6% from 3.5%.
15:00 GMT- ISM Non- Manufacturing PMI for January- US: The Service industry is forecast to increase from 49.6 to 50.5.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Sanofi
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