On Monday 6th: Canadian Ivey PMI is due as well as EU retail sales data.
On Tuesday 7th: RBA meets on monetary policy, while Tiff Macklem and Jerome Powell are due to speak.
On Wednesday 8th: Crude Oil Inventories are due.
On Thursday 9th: Australian Building Permits and US Initial Jobless Claims to be released.
On Friday 10th: CPI data from China, GDP from the UK, Canadian employment figures, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the German CPI data are all due.
Weekly outlook
A slightly subdued week for earnings this week, but still some big names to follow. Disney is set to report its financials after a tumultuous year and more recently a proxy fight with activist investor Trian Management LP. Trian recently pointed to a weakness in the company’s governance as being the catalyst for a $120 billion loss in market value last year. Earnings per share are down at least 50% over the past 5 years.
Also for those interested in Australian markets, the Reserve Bank is due to meet on Monetary Policy in what is forecast to result in yet another rise in the Official Cash Rate. Some economists are predicting this will be one of the last hikes prior to a break in the tightening cycle. News that will be music to the ears of many mortgage holders already struggling with the high cost of living.
Monday 6th of February
Canada’s Ivey PMI is due out mid-afternoon and is a survey of around 175 purchasing managers, that are chosen geographically and by industry sector to reflect the overall economy. It asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions such as employment, production, new orders, pricing, supplier deliveries, and stocks. The index dropped to 33.4 from 51.4 in December last year and expectations are for a slight recovery to 34.
Retail Sales from the EU will show that a decline in sales is expected for the month of December in the report released at 10:00 GMT. A drop from 0.8% to -2% is forecast for December compared to November, while the figure is expected to remain flat at -2.8% year on year.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Tyson Foods
Tuesday 7th of February
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets today on monetary policy, with its statement released at 3:30 GMT. The RBA has raised interest rates eight times in a row, bringing borrowing prices to levels not seen since November 2012. The bank has indicated that further rate rises are on the way since Australia's inflation rate is still well above its 2% mandate at 7.8%. The widely expected 25 basis point bump on Tuesday brings the central bank's total increases since May to 300 basis points, the fastest pace of tightening since 1989.
Central Bank Chiefs Jerome Powell and Tiff Macklem are due to make public appearances today, with the Fed Chair heading to a moderated discussion at the Economic Club of Washington, and the BoC Governor due to present at a conference organized by the Chartered Financial Analyst of Quebec on how monetary policy operates.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Linde
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals
- BNP Paribas
Wednesday 8th of February
During each week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) tracks the fluctuation in the total amount of barrels of commercial crude oil owned by businesses in the United States. Price increases or decreases for petroleum products may result from changes in inventory levels so interested investors watch these numbers carefully. A drop is forecast this week at 0.376M from the previous week’s 4.140M.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- TotalEnergies
- Walt Disney
- CVS Health Group
- Uber Tech
- Société Générale
Thursday 9th of February
The Australian Building industry may be in recovery based on forecasts for this week's Building Permits report. An increase from -8.8% to 18.5% from the month of December compared to November is expected. While year on year the forecast is for an improvement from -14.1% to -3.8% for the month of December.
The Initial Jobless Claims report is out at 1:30 GMT, with new claims for unemployment benefits having declined by 3,000 to 183,000 for the week ending January 28th, it was at the lowest level since April last year and considerably below market estimates of 200,000. The forecast for this week is looking at a slight increase to 189,000.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Abbvie
- Pepsico
- Toyota
- L'Oréal
- AstraZeneca
- Philip Morris
- Vinci
- Crédit Agricole
Friday 10th of February
CPI data is due out for the recently reopened China today at around 1:30 GMT. Although still in very enviable territory compared to much of the globe, the inflation rate is expected to show an increase from 1.8% year on year to 2%. While compared to last month, there is forecast to be an increase from 0% to 0.6%.
From the UK, GDP figures are expected to be released at 7:00 GMT for the quarterly and year on year results. On Tuesday last week, the Washington-based IMF warned that the UK economy will fall by 0.6% this year, 0.9 percentage points worse than it had predicted three months earlier.
Employment data from Canada will reportedly show the Unemployment Rate may have increased slightly from 5% to 5.2% for January, while the Average hourly wages for the same month are down from last month’s 5.2% to 4.4%.
The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index is due to be released today at 15:00 GMT for the month of February. The preliminary reading of 64.6 for the index was revised up to 64.9 in January 2023, the highest reading since April. The reading for this month is expected to be 66.
The German inflation rate is expected to have potentially further climbed year on year for January from 8.6% to 9.2% and from the previous month from -0.8% to 1.1% indicating more work to be done on tightening monetary policy.
Major Earnings Report due:
- Honda
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