On Monday 23rd: New Housing Price Index is published for Canada, Consumer Confidence is due for the EU and Christine Lagarde is due to give a speech.
On Tuesday 24th: Services and Manufacturing PMIs are due for France, Germany, the EU, the US, and the UK, CPI data for New Zealand is also released.
On Wednesday 25th: Australian CPI data is published, German Business Climate Index and the BOC meets on Monetary Policy.
On Thursday 26th: Durable Goods Orders, GDP data and New Homes Sales data for the US are all released, while Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI is due.
On Friday 27th: The US will release its Core PCE Price Index, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey results, and the Monthly Pending Home Sales data.
Weekly outlook
The week ahead is another full one for investors, with a multitude of major companies reporting earnings and plenty of economic data to keep an eye on.
One of the more notable company earnings to watch will be Elon Musk’s Tesla Motors. Anyone who owns Tesla Inc. shares will probably tell you they had a heartbreaking past year, as the value of electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers suffered a crippling hit in 2022. Unfortunately, a confounding 65% decline in the company's share price was mostly caused by a combination of demand worries and Musk's Twitter purchasing antics.
Also worth following are a number of CPI releases for a look at how some of the major world economies are fairing in their attempts to tame inflation with their tightening monetary conditions. The Bank of Canada will take last week's CPI data as a welcome sign that inflation is beginning to cool ahead of its Monetary Policy Meeting this week.
A host of Services and Manufacturing PMIs are also due across Europe and the US. The diffusion indexes use survey findings from businesses nationwide. A value over fifty indicates sector expansion, while below fifty indicates contraction. Policymakers and traders actively monitor these polls because purchasing managers often receive company performance data before the real data is released.
Monday 23rd of January
13:30 GMT- Monthly New Housing Price Index for December- Canada: Due largely to tighter monetary conditions, Canada's real estate values have fallen in recent months. In December, the typical Canadian house sold for $626,318, down almost 12% from a year earlier. The NHPI is expected to show a slight decline as a result.
15:00 GMT- Consumer Confidence for January- EU: Financial confidence is a leading indication of consumer spending, which accounts for most economic activity. Above 0 for this index is optimistic, below 0 rates as pessimistic. At -22 economists in December, the ECB will be hoping the trend will break for more positive conditions soon.
17:45 GMT- Major Speech from the ECB- EU: Christine Lagarde will give a speech at the annual reception of the Deutsche Börse in Eschborn. Traders often watch her public appearances for monetary policy hints.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Baker Hughes Company
Tuesday 24th of January
08:15 GMT- Services and Manufacturing PMIs for January- France: Services are expected to increase from 49.5 to 49.9, while Manufacturing is forecast to increase from 49.2 to 49.7.
08:30 GMT- Services and Manufacturing PMIs for January- Germany: Services are expected to increase from 49.2 to 49.7, while Manufacturing is forecast to increase from 47.1 to 47.9.
09:00 GMT- Services and Manufacturing PMIs for January- EU: Services are expected to increase from 49.8 to 50.2, while Manufacturing is forecast to increase from 47.8 to 48.5.
09:30 GMT- Services and Manufacturing PMIs for January- UK: Services are expected to increase from 49.9 to 51.4, while Manufacturing is forecast to increase from 45.3 to 50.3.
14:45 GMT- Services and Manufacturing PMIs for January- US: Services are expected to increase from 44.7 to 48.0, while Manufacturing is forecast to increase from 46.2 to 47.7.
21:45 GMT- Annualised and quarterly Q4 CPI- New Zealand: CPI inflation is expected to be cooling with a QoQ drop from 2.2% to 1.6% and a YoY decrease from 7.2% to 7.1% for the fourth quarter.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Microsoft
- Johnson & Johnson
- Verizon
- Texas Instruments Inc
- Raytheon Technologies
- Union Pacific Corp
- Lockheed Martin
- Intuitive Surgical
- General Electric Co
- 3M
- Halliburton
Wednesday 25th of January
00:30- GMT- Annualised, quarterly and Trimmed Mean Q4 CPI- Australia: Inflation is still an ongoing risk in Australia, as the RBA raised its 2022 inflation projection from 7.75% to 8% by the end of 2022 and its underlying inflation forecast from 6% to 6.50% in its November 2022 meeting minutes. The December 2022 RBA minutes did not record any change in these projections. The QoQ CPI for Q4 is expected to slow down to 1.6% from 1.8%, while the YoY CPI for Q4 is expected to increase to 7.5% from 7.3%. The QoQ Trimmed Mean CPI for Q4 is expected to slow down to 1.5% from 1.8%.
09:00 GMT- Ifo Business Climate Index for January- Germany: The Ifo Institute for Economic Research surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers to create a composite index which measures business mood in Germany. An increase is expected from 88.6 to 90.2.
15:00 GMT- BoC Interest Rate Decision- Canada: After a December 50 basis point boost, the central bank's overnight interest rate is currently sitting at 4.25%, a nearly 15-year high. Experts predict rates will remain over 4% in 2023 and anticipate the BoC to hold rates this month.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Tesla Motors Inc
- ASML Holding MV
- Abbott Laboratories
- Next-Era Energy Inc
- AT&T Inc
- International Business Machines Corporation
- Boeing
- US Bancorp
- Alstom
Thursday 26th of January
13:30 GMT- Monthly Durable Goods Orders for December- US: Durable Goods Orders shows how the total value of new orders has changed for long-lasting manufactured goods, such as items for transportation. An increase from -2.1% to 2.5% is expected.
13:30 GMT- Quarterly GDP for Q4- US: The latest Q4 economic activity data are moderately positive. Economists expect for the fourth quarter of 2022 a 2.8% GDP rise (seasonally adjusted annual rate) compared to a previous rise of 3.2%.
15:00 GMT- New Home Sales for December- US: New Home Sales is the monthly annualized number of new single-family homes sold. Due to their strong correlation, this report has greater influence when issued before Existing Home Sales. A small drop from 640K to 618K is expected for December.
23:30 GMT- Annualised Tokyo Core CPI January- Japan: The Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks consumer prices in the larger Tokyo Metropolitan region. It's been steadily rising at its fastest pace in four decades, now sitting at 4%. Analysts expects an increase at 4.2%
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Visa
- LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA
- Mastercard
- Comcast Corp
- Intel
- STMicroelectronics
Friday 27th of January
13:30 GMT- Monthly Core PCE Price Index for December- US: The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index tracks price changes in consumer goods and services, excluding food and energy. PCE, unlike CPI, is chain-weighted and adapts to consumer behaviour (that’s why it’s the favorite inflation data of the Fed). Expectations are for an unchanged 0.2% figure for last month.
15:00 GMT- Michigan Consumer Sentiment for January- US: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index compares present and projected economic conditions based on 500 customers surveys. Preliminary and Revised data are provided 15 days apart, and the revised report indicates an unchanged reading of 64.6 up from the previous months 59.7.
15:00 GMT- Monthly Pending Home Sales for December- US: The NAR Pending Home Sales Report tracks the number of properties under contract to be sold but not yet closed and excludes new construction. Sales decreased a higher than expected 4% in November, its sixth consecutive month of falls, as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to contain inflation.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Chevron
- H&M
- American Express CO
- Remy Cointreau
- Ubisoft
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